1/ A Valuation of Polymarket (POLY) March 7: @Polymarket was reportedly seeking a $20 billion valuation March 19: @Kalshi raised at $22 billion valuation A $POLY token and airdrop are confirmed. The central question is whether the $20 billion reflects reasonable expectations for future fee generation, or whether the market is mispricing the opportunity. My latest @MessariCrypto report builds a ground-up valuation to find out. Let's break it down 🧵

Morpho has $2.1B in outstanding loans on @base, up 115% YoY. @Morpho can 2x this in a year. It has the lenders but needs more TradFi collateral. On Sept. 22, Morpho’s Midnight fixed-rate markets launched BTC-backed USDC loans on Coinbase. They hold $7M in deposits as of today. TradFi assets are next. Coinbase launched tokenized stocks on Aug. 24. Morpho should double down on them as collateral, then tokenized ETFs. Morpho does not underwrite the asset. Institutions underwrite their own. Midnight’s fixed-rate markets let them set collateral, rate and term upfront, so borrowers know their cost for the full term. Every new market will attract more TradFi borrowers and grow TradFi’s share of Morpho’s outstanding loans. The open question is which institution launches the first tokenized stock market on Midnight.

I think biopharma hedging will be one of the biggest use cases for prediction markets over the coming years. Investor X funds Drug Y through research and FDA approval. They want protection if approval stalls or fails. Today they buy a put on the sponsor, say Pfizer. But Pfizer tests a million drugs at once, so its stock moves for reasons unrelated to Drug Y. That mismatch is basis risk. A prediction market isolates the single FDA decision and gives a direct hedge that doesn't exist today. See clip below from my Solana Summit panel @SuperteamCAN @supersimon77

Had a blast speaking on the Prediction Markets Panel at Solana Summit Canada last week w/ @SimiStern & @tre_poh We covered: - @Kalshi flipping @Polymarket in 2026 - Non-Big 2 players (@trylimitless, @predictdotfun, @Novig, @HyperliquidX HIP-4), and - Regulatory clarity worldwide The hedging supercycle is coming. 🔥 Great work from @SuperteamCAN @supersimon77

Outstanding loans on @Morpho grew 41% YoY to $5.5B, from $3.9B in Sept. 2025. Morpho hit that number with Midnight, its fixed-rate product, barely live and the bull market just starting. The next 18 months of loan growth will be face melting. Institutions borrow differently than DeFi users. A credit desk, the team at a bank or fund that lends and borrows against its own balance sheet, needs a fixed rate and a fixed term so it can price a loan against its own funding costs. Most DeFi lending runs on variable rates, which keeps that capital on the sidelines. Midnight gives those credit desks fixed-rate, fixed-term loans onchain. Bull markets push the other side, as traders lever up and loan books expand. Both sides of the market will grow at once.

Day 1 of Solana Summit Canada is a wrap. Seven hours. Nonstop speakers. Every talk raising the bar. Day 2 starts soon 👀 We’re live on stream at 10:15 AM.

Lock in. See you soon Canada 🍁

Looking forward to speaking next week at the Solana Summit Canada, going to be discussing: - the latest in prediction market landscape - institutional use cases - global regulatory developments

Prediction markets have a vertical they should own: drug approvals. Biotech is a $1.15T sector built on binary, scheduled FDA events. The demand is already there. In 2025, ~99M biotech options contracts were traded, but traders buy whole companies, NOT the event itself. A Phase 3 result or an FDA decision moves a stock 50-200%. You can trade the company. You cannot trade the event. Contracts on drug approvals exist today. None carry real liquidity. What breaks first here, liquidity or the insider rules?

Listen to where prediction markets are headed today at 1pm ET with @cjhtech

Prediction markets supercycle.

Quick update: I've joined @trylimitless as a Market Researcher. If you've followed me, you know I've been bullish on prediction markets for years. Joining a team that's pushing onchain prediction markets forward (where it all started) feels like a natural next step. Excited to work alongside @dimahorshkov, @cjhtech, @JacquesWhales, and the rest of the team building something special in this space. Keep an eye out for research dropping soon, and if there are topics in prediction markets you want covered, my DMs are open. The future is Limitless.

Thank you for all the fantastic work you put in over the years, it’s truly been an honor to be your manager and play a role in your career growth! Austin was Messari’s internal prediction markets GCR, and his mastery over the sector was truly impressive. If you, or anyone you know is hiring, please get in touch with @0xWeiler as he would a be a wonderful addition to any crypto team.

I had the pleasure of being Austin's research manager @MessariCrypto for over a year and let me tell you... he will not be in the job market for long. Mastery, domain expertise, and great CHARACTER, make Austin a highly profitable, game changer for any team in crypto. Please get in touch now if you want a revenue generating, whip-smart difference maker on your team.

Blockworks acquired @MessariCrypto and as a result, Friday was my last day. Messari was the best job I've had. Getting to sharpen my thinking on Prediction Markets, DeFi, Stablecoins, Interop, and more alongside some of the brightest research minds in crypto every day was something I won't take for granted. The Messari Mafia is real, and I know the alumni network will keep driving thought leadership in the space long after the brand sunsets. Two people I want to call out specifically: @AvgJoesCrypto my Day 1 manager who taught me how to formulate and own a thesis, stay ahead of the curve across every corner of crypto, and lead by example. Set the bar for what top-tier research looks like. @KreiserMatt my more recent manager, a consummate professional and one of the sharpest business minds in a space flooded with noise. Taught me to build arguments from fundamentals and find the truth in writing. I'm a better analyst and writer for it. Too many others to name, but you know who you are. I'm actively looking for my next opportunity. DMs open.

Prediction Market volume (May 2026): 🥇- 1. @Kalshi - $17.9B (58%) 🥈- 2. @Polymarket - $8.8B (28%) 🥉- 3. @trylimitless - $1.7B (6%) 4. @predictdotfun - $1.1B (4%) 5. @opinionlabsxyz - $0.7B (2%) 6. Other - $0.9B (3%) Key observation: - Kalshi captured 58% of May volume, back-to-back months of majority share, and 9 straight months leading the category. The gap continues to widen. Other insights: - Sports + Exotics (Kalshi's combo/parlay product) combined for $15.3B, or 85% of Kalshi's monthly total. Crypto held as the #2 Kalshi category at $2.0B (11%). - Polymarket volume fell 13% MoM to $8.8B, its 2nd straight monthly decline. Polymarket US grew from $1.2B to $1.7B, so the drop is entirely on the DeFi International side. Likely due to a mix of: - fewer sports games as NHL/NBA seasons wind down - growing user frustration with market resolutions - Polymarket will bounce back, but stabilizing DeFi International has to be the priority. The US platform is doing its job. - Limitless grew 3% MoM to $1.7B, edging out PredictDotFun ($1.1B, -29% MoM) for the #3 platform spot. - @HyperliquidX (not pictured) hit $92M in its first month. Strong debut, and I expect it to take big leap in market share over the coming months.