My $WAR vault has reached +25% this month that's 244% APY for investors ! not bad for passive yield. the vault statistics actually show only 62% APY because they count from february when the vault was created, but not launched yet. In reality (1+0.25)^(12/3) = 2.44 so the real number is 244% if i can keep this rate the chart is pretty smooth lately because i'm trying to stay diversified and never exceeding 10% bankroll per position. TVL has also grown +3x from $2.6K last month to $8.6k now from all the next deposits but there is still room to grow so don't hesitate to chip in. I will put the link below for those that want to profit from $WAR 👇

The new Polymarket referral program will bring you ~0.61$/year per referee . Good luck making any money with that. Polymarket said their new 20% fee share affiliate program would amount to "Financial DDoS" @polyguana research backtested it against onchain data since the introduction of fees in march. the found out that : - the average referral would have brought you 0.61$/year - the average referrer would have made $39 on the whole period this is no alternative to releasing a token $POLY

Polymarket top traders lost >$12.6M betting on Bolsonaro to win the Brazilian presidential election at 82% odds. why did they get it so wrong ? Because they convinced themselves that they knew better than polls 📅 October 4 - Bolsonaro upset in the 1st round The first-round results drop : Bolsonaro: 47.03% Lula: 45.16% Bolsonaro overperforms the previous polls by+5 points. Polymarket traders are gain confidence that the polls overestimate Lula. Polymarket odds : Bolsonaro: 84%, Lula: 16% 📅 October 23 - Traders ignore the contradictory polls Datafolha's new poll drom for final round shows a statistical tie: - Bolsonaro: 50% - Lula: 50% Yet Polymarket barely reacts. Traders are confident in that the polls again underestimate Bolsonaro. 📅 October 25 - Election day : the polls were right Bolsonaro enters election day as the overwhelming favorite. Polymarket odds at 2:45 PM: Bolsonaro: 82%, Lula: 19% But then we got the final election result: - Lula: 51.79% - Bolsonaro: 48.21% Turns out Datafolha's poll showing 50-50 results was actually underestimating Lula. That's why you must always stay flexible in Prediction Markets.

Surprised by the turn of events in Brazil? You wouldn’t be if you were watching the odds on Polyguana. Polyguana aggregates real-time quotes from Hyperliquid, Polymarket, Limitless, and Kalshi, giving you the fastest signals and the best fills in the market. Trade politics, elections, and global outcomes while earning constant passive yield on your capital + outpace inflation by stacking PolyPoints. Just $POLY. 🦎📈

Will there be a new frontier AI model this month? Claude Fable 5.5 or GPT Terra? Grok 4.8 - maybe? Best odds on the AI Race from @Kalshi @Polymarket @trylimitless and @HyperliquidX Just $POLY

Romanian President is on TV accusing Russia of bombing their ships and says he sent his F-16s to destroy Russian drones. Yet Polymarket ruled that there was NO "Russia x NATO military clash". It may seem weird at first, but if you had read my previous post you would have predicted it. here is why 👇 The rules explicitly exclude interception of Russian attack munitions targeting third parties. In other words, shooting down a Russian drone doesn't automatically qualify as a NATO x Russia military clash *if that drone was not aimed at a NATO country*. So what happens when a NATO intercepts a drone withing it's territory ? A - we assume the drone was aimed at the NATO country until proven otherwise B - we assumed the drone was aimed a 3rd part until proven to have been aimed at the NATO country The answer was given in a previous clarification. On August 20, Romanian forces fired on a Russian maritime drone near it's coast yet Polymarket clarified to NO. They cited "insufficient evidence the drone was targeting Romania" Therefore it's B. You need definitive proof that a munition was aimed at the NATO country for it's interception to qualify. Judging by this precedent it was clear that the latest events would also resolve to NO. Polymarket clarified NO because : > The ships hit by russia were commercial ships in transit (3rd parties). > The intercepted Russian drones had no confirmed targets (Possible 3rd parties). You may think these are dumb rules, but that clarification is entirely consistent with precedent.

The real question: is W. Legate actually loyal to anyone? > Become a Thiel Fellow > Start as a left-wing Democrat bashing Trump > Found a pillow startup Lose your co-founder > Pivot to conservative and join Kalshi > Jump ship from Kalshi to Polymarket > Pump shady influencer campaigns for growth > Go full Republican retweeting racist posts Say what you want about Legate. The man wears a lot of hats. Is he a genius marketer who knows exactly how to adapt and find his place in the sun, or a carefully planted psyop? What side are you on? | EP. 5

Traders put the next GPT Terra release by November 30 at 83%. Our AI page tracks upcoming model releases alongside the LMArena leaderboard and markets on who finishes first. See who leads now, what’s expected to ship next and how the odds change: polyguana.net/predictions/ai…

Claude Fable 5.5? Grok? What’s the real story with Mythos? 🤔 You’re already paying for the models - why not profit from the AI race? Bet on upcoming model releases and benchmark kings with Polyguana. The most precise odds, aggregated across venues.

The CFTC is cracking down on Sports prediction markets. It just banned exchanges from proposing new type of sports contracts. Looks like regulator are tying to slowly choke out sports markets The CFTC contacted @Novig and @ProphetX and ordered them to take down the following markets : - Who scores the 1st points in a basketball game? - Will any NFL end with a final score never seen before? - Will an MLB game produce a never-before-seen score? - Who will score the 1st point in a Football game? They argue that these categories are prone to manipulaton. If you remember it's the same argument that they used to force Kalshi to ban Sports mention markets Regulations are dropping at an increasing rate : - July: CFTC forces Kalshi to ban bets on sport mention. - September: The CFTC send a warning about "manipulation risks" in mention markets in general - October (Now): The CFTC bans first goal and scorigami markets ---- next ---- - The CFTC bans mention markets ? - The CFTC drops sports market entirely (reclassied as gambling) ? Is the Trump admin starting to turn against prediction markets ? Or is the CFTC just trying to hedge their bets for when Democrats come to power ?

🚨 Polymarket just fired it's its CMO @MatthewModabber after he got caught paying influencer to promote FAKE TRADES ! Shayne Coplan tried protect Modabber but the board overruled him. Moddaber organized an influencer promotional campaign using fake bets and undisclosed ads to promote the site. WSJ investigated 1,105 promotional videos from the campaign. It found: - $1.9M in simulated bets presented as real. - 118 videos showing nearly $900K in fake winnings. - Bets that would actually have lost over $166K being shown as winning Moddaber tried to pretend that he had nothing to do with it and the influencers acted on their own But the investigation revealed he personnaly organized it all. - > $350K in payments to fraudulent influencer came from Modabber's personal PayPal account. - anorher $2.5M was sent from his account to 800+ suspected participants of the campaing. - he had Polymarket build a fake copy of its own website to stage the trades This is a BIG blow for Shayne ! Moddaber was his childhood friend and last solid ally at polymarket. Now that Moddaber has been pushed out he's truly alone. And it comes after he just got caught by investors using the company's money to fly private jets and cover personnal expenses. His position has never been weaker. It's clear that investors have lost confidence in him.

NEW STUDY : Polymarket KOLs are bad traders and you will lose money if you follow them. We all knew it, but it's nice to finally have proof. A study by Prediction Market Census tracked 307 Polymarket influencers, their wallets and the call they made on social media. Here's what they discovered 👇 1. Their calls are trash. Researchers matched 162 public KOL trading calls to their earlier trades. On those exact same bets: - avg. KOL return: +12.3% - avg. Follower entering when posted: −2.4% If you see a KOL posting shilling a trade opportunity, it's already too late and they are using you as exit liquidity. 1. KOLs are WORST traders than average. > 57.5% of KOL accounts lost money trading. > 50.5% of non-KOL accounts with similar trading volumes lose money. So remember. No competent trader is going to give you free alpha. If they have alpha, they will keep it to themselves. If they pretend to have alpha, they are farming you for refferal revenue.

You asked about Smart orders, so here they are 🦎 Smart order agents get you the best price there is by executing your trade smartly. Instead of market buying and eating a lot of slippage they tail the orderbook and nab the best offers as they come in. Watch the video, and learn more at polyguana.net/info/smart-ord…