🚩Exclusive Freshwater Poll Shows Winston Peters is by far the most preferred PM across all minor parties, including with the left.
Sean Plunket was given polling data by the CEO of freshwater, who drilled down into polling. It even shows that 30% of Act voters prefer WP as PM.
Mike Turner told Sean that the centre right only has a chance at this election because “Winston the big beast of politics” has doubled NZ Firsts polling since the last election - “It’s NZ First that is pulling the centre right over the line, some Act but mainly it’s NZ First” Turner is currently putting NZ First around 13%.
Earlier this year David Farrar even admitted if Winston Peters was leading National, the coaliton would be far in front of Labour, Luxon has been cancer for National since shortly after he was elected.
Reid also released peripheral poll data this morning showing where Labour has voters to, and NZ First has taken nearly as much as TOP off Labour, with the old school working class Labour voter moving towards NZ First.
Greens - 9.9%
Opportunity: 5.6%
NZ First - 5.1 %
National - 3.3%
Turner warned that if TOP gets over 5% it would basically mean the left wins, unless there is a BIG RIGHT OVERHANG and National hold 40 electorates… which is exactly why Seymour needs to tell Act supporters NOT TO VOTE ACT in the Tamaki & Epsom electorates - and he needs to do this NOW!
Listen here :
“Winston should lead the National party to put National well in front” - Laws & Farrar (half) jokingly point out.
This week Michael Laws discussed two poll results with David Farrar. Curia’s and Freshwaters. As has been the trend for sometime now, the gap between the centre right and centre left is still slim, in Singapore to promote NZ Oil and Gas this week Shane Jones said most investors were weary that the centre left will win next years general election.
Both Laws and Farrar said that the most extraordinary results were found in the favourability ratings of the current leaders.
Hipkins + 4%
Peters + 1%
Seymour - 12%
Chloe - 12%
Luxon - 18%
Farrar notes that remarkably WP, long been disliked by National and its base, is +30% favoured by Nats voters.
A small party that gets less than 10% will generally have at most 15% positive favourability and attract 40% unfavourable opinions, which is why Chloe nearly always is -25 and Wariri - 40%.
Laws points out that in the lead up to the last election National did not want anything to do with NZFirst, conveying to the public that ACT is its partner of preference, however he believes that has now changed - as Act like National themselves are struggling for traction, while the most preferred PM results from all polls since the 2023 election, Peters is continuing to trend up, as is NZFirst.
The fact remains that Luxon is unpopular - not only with the opposition voters but with his own base. As underwhelming as the 0.8% growth in NZ’s GDP last quarter is, in contrast Aus grew by 0.2% last quarter. It’s a sign of the progressive con artistry regarding net zero, climate change policy that has shackled the west with spiking energy costs which will continue to kill economic growth. Which is why even Albanese, the woke progressive Aus PM has signed an agreement guaranteeing that Labor will allow gas exploration and production in Oz for at least the next 40 years.
NZ Labour continues to be an economic vandal and refuse to sign a bilateral agreement. NZ’ers need to be much more energy literate and understand that this economy ain’t going nowhere, the country will continue to slide into the abyss without energy security. Renewables will not do it. If there were more awareness of our precarious energy situation and less propaganda from the left you would see the Coalition’s pie grow - on the back of Shane Jones’ aggressive pursuit of kick starting Oil and Gas.
The big concern for National is - if the economy does not have a marked improvement by the next election it’s going to be an extremely tight election. Voters since the dawn of time will vote on the economy. The Middle East conflict could easily see major disruptions in energy of oil settled at above US $85 a barrel for a few quarters (or shoots well above) the ensuing cost pressure will more than likely swallow up the projected 1.4% growth in GDP, add to the spiralling energy costs and kick start inflation.
The economy is all that can save Luxon right now, he has zero purchase culturally or politically and needs the economy to improve. National are in a bind to capture the swing voters, with only one route out for the next election.