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What three year period from history does the AI-era (2023-2025) most closely resemble? 1994-1997.
Check out the latest from Caliban. 3FR's AI agent that can do research on the fly.
More at: 3fourteenresearch.com/caliba…
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New report out to 3FR clients discussing:
-Credit spreads (Caa) blowing out.
-Weak breadth has been bullish in the AI-era.
-Datacenter supply projections for 2027...no signs of a slowdown.
-Lab ARR fears.
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3Fourteen Research retweeted
It is becoming obvious that AI is impacting the labor market.
Going back to mid-2025:
-Finance + Tech industries -246k jobs.
-All other industries +812k jobs.
This dynamic will most likely intensify next year and expand into other industries.
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3Fourteen Research retweeted
Finally got a chance to sit down (remotely) with Phil yesterday.
Enjoyed the conversation...Link below.
The AI trade is accelerating on record earnings, massive compute demand, and high rental rates for chips.
I sat down with @WarrenPies to discuss the under-the-radar indicators he's tracking in the market right now, his favorite sectors and opportunities for the year ahead, and his latest views on the macro setup.
This conversation will make you think critically about the AI trade.
TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 - Overweight equities
3:30 - Tech-heavy market and AI leadership
5:29 - Macro shocks
11:05 - Low correlations and pair trades
13:37 - Semis and broadening trade
17:35 - GPU availability and rental rates
21:22 - Compute indicators flashing bullish
25:08 - Frontier lab ARR
30:08 - Hyperscalers leadership
32:34 - AI CapEx and the Fed
36:38 - What ends the bull run?
40:32 - Favorite sectors
41:46 - @3F_Research
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3Fourteen Research retweeted
Yesterday, I joined @michaelsantoli and @MelissaLeeCNBC to discuss why the Fed meeting likely cleared the path for equities to move higher now.
Thank you for having me on @CNBCOvertime
cnbc.com/video/2026/09/18/li…
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3Fourteen Research retweeted
S&P 500
To make new highs, the market needs semiconductors to get into gear.
YTD, the S&P 500 is up ~60% on days when the semi industry is positive. But, the S&P 500 is down ~30% on days semis are down.
No other industry has had this large of an effect on the index in 2026.
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New report out to 3FR clients. In this edition, @fernavid -Benchmarks the new K3 model against the frontier.
-Discusses the shift from tokenomics to "taskenomics."
-Checks in on the datacenter buildout using granular data.
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3Fourteen Research retweeted
The Leopold liquidation pushed semiconductor single-stock volatility up to 75% (SOX Index).
This is only the third time semi volatility has reached this level. The other two instances: March 2020 and April 2025.
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3Fourteen Research retweeted
Hyperscaler cloud revenue growth holds the key to this earnings season and is a likely catalyst to normalize low index correlations in a benign way (excerpt from last week's @3F_Research client report).
$MSFT was first step along this path...$AMZN on deck.
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3Fourteen Research retweeted
There's much worry that low implied correlations will spike and create a Summer 2024 selloff/vix spike.
True, the Fed + Iran are real macro risks
However, implied correlation almost always rises during earnings season
The key to a benign rise is constituent-level vol dropping
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New report out to 3FR clients examining:
-Near record low implied correlations.
-Can correlations rise w/o index damage.
-Semis enter this earnings season with the second highest constituent-level vol on record...market bulwark.
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Learning - once again - that positioning is everything in the crude market these days.
Positioning dictates direction...fundamentals/news flow dictate the amplitude of the move.
OIL
Managed Money short positions >40% (third highest reading in 15 years + Record crack spreads = recipe for a solid bottom.
The question is how big will the bounce be?
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3Fourteen Research retweeted
GPU availability tightening back up...
B200 availability was already at 0%.
Post-Kimi K3, GH200 tightening aggressively.
The @3F_Research "Fast" Availability Index heading back below 10%.
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3Fourteen Research retweeted
OIL
Managed Money short positions >40% (third highest reading in 15 years + Record crack spreads = recipe for a solid bottom.
The question is how big will the bounce be?
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Despite the nervousness around compute demand ($META), B200 rental rates have shot up over the past week ($5.30 to $5.77 - @silicondata ).
This confirms what we have seen in B200 availability, which collapsed back to 0% a few weeks back (excerpt from @3F_Research H2 Outlook).
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Warren is the best macro guy out there right now imho
Best thing for momo semis, neos, memory and semi cap would be to roll over through their 21EMA and chop against their 50SMA until earnings in August.
Think this might be my base case
Everyone knows that July is seasonally bullish.
But, over the past five years, it is the most negative month for the momentum factor (top 10%/bottom 10%).
Heading into July, momentum has been on a historic tear...makes sense to see the broadening/rotation (excerpt h2 outlook).
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3Fourteen Research retweeted
Everyone knows that July is seasonally bullish.
But, over the past five years, it is the most negative month for the momentum factor (top 10%/bottom 10%).
Heading into July, momentum has been on a historic tear...makes sense to see the broadening/rotation (excerpt h2 outlook).
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3Fourteen Research retweeted
"Being invested in the market right now is constantly having to fight against a deluge of bearish arguments about AI."
Excerpts from @fernavid during last week's retrospective...including a discussion of the OpenRouter data many macro gurus are misinterpreting.
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