AI Impacts
@AIImpacts

AI Impacts aims to improve our understanding of the likely impacts of human-level artificial intelligence. Media: katja@aiimpacts.org

 San Francisco
aiimpacts.org/
Joined May 2015
26 Photos and videos
The average AI researcher thinks there is an ~18% chance AI will cause human extinction or similarly permanent and severe disempowerment of the human species. That's nearly 1 in 5. New results from the latest version of the longest running big survey of AI researchers:
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There was overwhelming demand for more AI safety research (given a broad definition, not just technical 'safety')
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The full paper, with many other results: aiimpacts.org/wp-content/upl…
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Why AI poses a risk of human extinction—Katja Grace explains to Ben Bradford, on NPR's new "Are We Doomed?" podcast piped.video/watch?v=ap5qlqhR…
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Audio only version: pod.link/1893359212

Are We Doomed?

Listen to Are We Doomed? wherever you get your podcasts!

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Our surveys’ findings that AI researchers assign a median 5-10% to extinction or similar made a splash (NYT, NBC News, TIME..) But people sometimes underestimate our survey’s methodological quality due to various circulating misconceptions. Today, an FAQ correcting key errors:
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aiimpacts.substack.com/p/faq…

FAQ: Expert Survey on Progress in AI methodology

Context

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AI Impacts retweeted
Tom Adamczewski
@tmkadamcz
16 Dec 2024
I just wrapped up a deep-dive reanalysis of the famous survey of AI experts by @katjagrace & colleagues. Let me walk you through some key takeaways (more nuance at the full report). 🧵...
AI Impacts
@AIImpacts
16 Dec 2024
New report, reanalyzing key results from the 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI. With in-depth discussion of methodology, excellent new charts, and open-sourced codebase, all thanks to @tmkadamcz!
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New report, reanalyzing key results from the 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI. With in-depth discussion of methodology, excellent new charts, and open-sourced codebase, all thanks to @tmkadamcz!
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Report: aiimpacts.org/how-should-we-…

How should we analyse survey forecasts of AI timelines?

Tom Adamczewski, 2024 The Expert Survey on Progress in AI (ESPAI) is a large survey of AI researchers about the future of AI, conducted in 2016, 2022, and 2023. One main focus of the survey is the...

aiimpacts.org
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Notes on a small casual poll of Americans reading AI risk arguments: blog.aiimpacts.org/p/what-ha…

What happens if you present 500 people with an argument that AI is risky?

Recently, Nathan Young and I wrote about arguments for AI risk and put them on the AI Impacts wiki. In the process, we ran a casual little survey of the American public regarding how they feel about...

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Our latest project. Do you find these arguments for AI existential risk compelling?
Katja Grace 🔍
@KatjaGrace
13 Aug 2024
How compelling are arguments that AI is an existential risk? Here's a list of 10 such arguments risk I've collected with @nathanpmyoung There is a poll beneath each, so you can vote on how compelling you find it.
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Which best explains the political polarization of environmentalism? - Small-government: The right dislikes any regulation - Al Gore: Environmentalist alliance with the left - Trust erosion: Blurring advocacy and science - Non-specific: High polarization across many issues
14% Small-government
19% Al Gore
29% Trust erosion
38% Non-specific
21 votes • Final results
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Environmentalism is a partisan issue in the US, with Democrats being much more environmentalist than Republicans. Do you think this was inevitable, given the state of the world in (say) 1950? Or could it have been a bipartisan issue, or even had the opposite polarization?
21% Inevitable
79% Could have been different
14 votes • Final results
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