Today at
#ESMO26, the 6-year results of NATALEE will be presented. Ahead of the presentation, my personal view on the survival gains with adjuvant CDK4/6 inhibitors…
The 6-year OS rates in NATALEE were 91.86% vs 89.73%: an absolute gain of 2.1 percentage points (HR 0.809; 95% CI 0.661–0.989; nominal one-sided p=0.019).
The absolute 7-year OS gain in monarchE was 1.8 percentage points (HR 0.842; p=0.027). I do not think these gains should be dismissed as “only 2%.”
In the EBCTCG analysis, adding taxanes to anthracycline-based chemotherapy—an approach we have accepted as standard for years—provided an absolute 5-year OS gain of approximately 1.9 percentage points. The populations and follow-up periods differ, so we cannot directly compare treatment efficacy. However, the standards we use to judge a few percentage points of survival benefit should be consistent.
Moreover, 95.4% of patients in monarchE had already received chemotherapy. This survival gain represents an additional benefit on top of chemotherapy and endocrine therapy.
Patient selection, toxicity, treatment duration, and cost certainly deserve discussion. However, the survival benefit of adjuvant CDK4/6 inhibitors in appropriately selected patients should not be underestimated.