Recently retired nuclear nerd. Facts are facts, opinions, are mine, and baseball is less interesting now that there is a pitch clock.
Chevy Chase, MD
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Having trouble catching my breath. This is the hardest gut punch in a long series of them. Her joy, knowledge, and care and concern for both the staff and patrons (i.e. the whole country) is beyond measure. apnews.com/article/donald-tr…
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Amy Woolf retweeted
So you seem to think that the development and deployment of the SS-20 Saber (I use NATO designation for clarity) wasn't a core capability of USSRm AND SO they agreed to INF. You are so assuming that the counter deployment of the so-called Euromissiles hadn't a role. 👇
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Jake Irvin needs to go to the All Star game. For a shutout. For 8 dominant innings. For saving the bullpen. ⚾️⚾️⚾️⚾️
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My visit to arms control history… Hradcany Square
Just over 15 years ago, from this place, with so much hope, we heard: “So today, I state clearly and with conviction America's commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons…”
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This is a good thread. Maybe I can help a bit. The question of whether nuclear deterrence “works” never has a yes/no answer. It’s a mind game. Nuclear deterrence attempts to increase the threat/risk that an adversary action will lead to a nuclear reaction. (1)
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The goal isn’t to be sure that nuclear threats “worked.” The goal is to increase the sense of risk in an adversary’s mind enough to increase the probability that a highly adverse action won’t occur (fin)
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This thread is💯on point for those who are about to claim that Israel's success proves that "missile defense can work for the United States against China and Russia." It is not about the individual technologies, but the shape/size of the battle space and so much more. (1/2)
True, BUT one must consider 2 other factors: the size of the area of operations & the depth of the enemy’s attack.
It’s easier to “mass” air defense & counter missile/drone defense against an enemy attack in a smaller area like Israel (250 miles x 70 miles) vs a bigger country (400 mile x 800 miles) like Ukraine.
Multinational ADA & fighter also were able to intercept attacking missiles/drones over friendly countries at a longer distance.
Both make last night’s actions much different than countering Ru attacks into Ukraine.
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Definitely an engaging evening. Ready to start reading:
🔥Nuclear War Q&A w/ 3 p.o.v.'s: Jon Wolfsthal (*White House*); me; Lt. Gen Charlie Moore (Pentagon).
Rock star audience @nukestrat @CynthiaLazaroff, agents from U.S. treasury, Boris Pash's great-grandson, the current director of Los Alamos, my family on the east coast, and all kinds of amazing people. Standing room only. 🙏
Signed copies @PoliticsProse The Warf.
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I have some thoughts on the Russian space thing and nuclear deterrence, which I will collect and post later today. But two opening statements: There are some bona fide space/ASAT experts on this site; we should let then think it through before the rest of us wildly speculate and
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If not, we may be entering an era of crisis instability and a higher risk of nuclear war. In the past, we used negotiations to manage the competition and reduce risk (i.e. arms control). I don’t see that path here, but some of you may have better vision than me. (10)
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