The BBC's More or Less: Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news, and everyday life.
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"That is brilliant."
Learn the maths hack from @robeastaway that blew the minds of @ChrisMasonBBC and @TimHarford
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Our same listener in Eastleigh also received this from Labour. It gives a different message to YouGov’s current MRP polling which puts Labour 10 points behind either the Lib Dems or the Conservatives in that seat...
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Some use results from previous general elections. Opinions have shifted since then, and 90% of constituencies also have new boundaries.
A listener in Eastleigh received this from the Lib Dems - the bars are also the wrong height to reflect their previous performance.
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This is from a Lib Dem leaflet in Central Devon
It makes no mention of the Conservatives who have held the seat since it was created.
The Lib Dem vote share is from 2010 - But they’ve come third or fourth in the last three general elections there. Labour’s is from 2017.
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But the Conservatives chose to use the figure including additional childcare AND presumed it would be used by 50% of pupils - that would cost up to £1.5bn a year.
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ALT Table from Treasury analysis of breakfast club costs
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For Labour’s pledge to introduce ‘universal breakfast clubs' for primary schools in England, the Treasury gave two models. One covered food costs and staff time to prepare food. The second added 1 hour of free childcare. With a 30% take up, the first would cost ~£200m a year
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ALT Table from Treasury analysis of breakfast club cost
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Political special advisors also placed assumptions in the Treasury calculations.
Looking at insourcing again… In the Treasury analysis, advisers wanted it to be assumed that services would be 7.5% less efficient if brought under greater government control.
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ALT Note on Treasury analysis of insourcing
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But there are questions about how the Conservatives chose some figures.
With Labour’s pledge to take back control of more public services, the Conservatives assumed 50% of contracts renewed annually would be insourced, costing £6.4bn - the highest % in the Treasury numbers.
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ALT Table from Treasury cost analysis of insourcing.
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The Conservatives added up what they think Labour would spend & raise. But several policies including continued support for Ukraine, the Green Prosperity Plan and Fair Agreement for Social Care were not analysed by the Treasury.
Together these make up around 40% of the £££
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ALT Scorecard from the Conservative "Labour’s Tax rises" analysis
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We were asked to investigate this claim made recently during a discussion about HS2. Is it true? Here's a More or Less thread (1/9)
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Is Rishi Sunak going to miss his pledge to halve inflation?
And does his pledge mean anything in the first place?
Watch this explainer from More or Less reporter @NathanJGower.
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In total, 1.2 million people moved to the UK (to stay more than 12 months) in 2022. Just over half a million left the UK making net migration to the population 606,000. (2/6)
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NEW: How does the mortgage crunch today compare to the 70s and 80s? More or Less reporter @NathanJGower explains.
🎧Listen to the full programme here: bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001n1…
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On infrastructure, any risk posed by heavier cars to roads and bridges pales in comparison to that posed by lorries. But there's more of an issue with car parks. Many older car parks were designed for vehicles of max 2.5 tonnes. Those weights could increasingly be exceeded. 8/9
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It suggests the NHS is prioritising those waiting more than 18 months over those with currently shorter waits. 8/9
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NHS waiting lists - and particularly the numbers waiting very long times for hospital treatment - increased dramatically during the pandemic.
Cutting waiting lists is one of the government’s top priorities. 2/9
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Like many of his predecessors, King Charles will wear the iconic St Edward's Crown at his coronation. But how much would the 17th century crown cost if it was assembled today? Watch our video and listen to the latest More or Less @bbcsounds here bbc.in/3Lw2ItM
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What do the figures on the tweet refer to? Average bills? Gas prices? It’s not clear.
Let’s look at the source for these figures, which we’ve tracked down to something called ‘Epex Spot’, as you can see from another version of the tweet. 2/10
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You may have seen a version of this tweet, which seems to claim that energy costs in the UK are many times more expensive than the rest of Europe - over four times as much as the next two countries, Belgium and France.
Here’s why that tweet is wildly misleading. A thread 🧵1/10
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Are 13 million women in the UK really menopausal?
It's a figure that's widely used, including on the NHS website.
@BBCMoreorLess investigates 🕵️♀️
🎧 bit.ly/3ZfFn5g
BBC Current Affairs
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Are you more likely as a pensioner to be living in a millionaire household than you are to be living in poverty?
More or Less reporter @NathanJGower investigates.
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How many staff shortages are there in the NHS in England?
More or Less reporter @NathanJGower explains why that’s a much harder question to answer than you’d think.
🎧Listen to the full programme here: bit.ly/3xfYr7k
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A new study suggests data from shop loyalty cards could be used to detect ovarian cancer.
@timharford and @fryRsquared chat about how useful it could prove.
🎧 bit.ly/3DAgAQD
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Last week Chancellor Jeremy Hunt sat down with a cup of coffee and pledged to halve inflation - but what does that really mean? Your statistical barista @TimHarford explains... ☕️
🎧Listen on @BBCSounds: bit.ly/3XTFi6g
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Experience - in real time - the average time it takes to speak to a 999 ambulance call handler in England📱➡️📞
@TimHarford explains how the numbers have changed since 2017…
🎧 Listen on @BBCSounds: bbc.in/3Wvvkab
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How long is it taking for ambulance services in England to pick up 999 calls?
@TimHarford explains the dire state of affairs.
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Lots of loyal listeners asked @TimHarford and the More or Less team to investigate this figure....so we did. Listen now on BBC Sounds bbc.in/3BVY7MF
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Listen to our latest episode as @timharford discusses energy, imperial units and how the UK's gardens measure up against our national parks bbc.in/3LePpNZ
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@WHO recently reported there'd been more pandemic-related deaths in Germany than the UK. Which was unexpected...
BUT the WHO got their Germany numbers wrong! Old and updated data👇 Listen to find out what happened: bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0017kc… Graphic thx to @OpenUniversity
For more on BODMAS, listen to this catchy tune (warning, you may never stop singing it) piped.video/watch?v=BCzpWTqg…
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HAPPY ELECTION! To celebrate the most wonderful time of the year, we've got two 🗳️Election Specials🗳️ coming up. Seen an interesting or weird number in the election campaign? Please post it below or email moreorless@bbc.co.uk
#MOLelection #GE2019 @TimHarford @BBCRadio4
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Tim (@TimHarford) and the More or Less team have a show at #HayFestival2019 on Tues May 28 at 5.30pm. Check it out! hayfestival.org/wales
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This weekend on More or Less: @TimHarford's chat with @MonaChalabi about how to make a statement with statistics through brilliant illustrations like this, the extended version.
Warning: programme contains mentions of unmentionables.
(Illustration by @MonaChalabi)
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Also in the programme we use our statistical know-how to estimate the number of witches and wizards in the UK and Ireland based on the Harry Potter books. Could we be any nerdier?
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Go shorty, it’s your birthday; we’re going to party like it’s your and 40 Humboldt Penguins’ birthday…. Just how many animals are born every day? bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0b01w6…
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Guess who's back, back again, Harford's back, tell your friends (and tune in to Radio 4 today at 16:30)
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Mr Darcy from the book Pride and Prejudice was supposed to be fabulously rich - but how rich was he in today's money?
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This is a great reminder of what an extraordinary communicator Hans Rosling was. piped.video/jbkSRLYSojo
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On @BBCRadio4 now: @HelenPilcher1 + @paullewismoney vs @MyStephanomics + @NathanCaton. Who will win our inaugural Christmas quiz?
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Celebrity deaths; the #brexit-homophobia link; the value of a royal yacht; and the Queen's English. It can only be us - on @BBCRadio4 now.
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Is it more surprising that Danny Dyer is related to Edward III, or that you’re probably related to Danny Dyer? bbc.in/2fOxylv
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This week: the graph that shows how perverse incentives affect assessments of 5 yr olds. bbc.in/2fOxylv
Thanks to @AliceJBradbury
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“Any contract you write is going to be inadequate ... It’s going to be incomplete.” – Oliver Hart, 2016 Laureate in Economic Sciences
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Is the number of stray cats in the UK:
9m
7.4m
2.5m
None of the above?
Answer on @BBCRadio4 now or here: bbc.co.uk/programmes/b081tjh…
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On @BBCWorldService now – comparing deadly terrorism historically and around the world bbc.in/1KtUT0J
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On @BBCRadio4 now – why you’re probably more worried about terrorism than you should be bbc.in/1KtUT0J
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Chaos in the sock drawer? Anarchy on the bookshelves? Fear not, computer science can help! bbc.in/2a3MTeE
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Ireland's 26% GDP growth & gotta catch all the rogue #PokemonGO stats. Catch up now: bbc.co.uk/programmes/p041hcy…
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Can we keep our personal data private? Probably not. @danbouk and @FrankPasquale explain bbc.in/1S9v4EX
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Is the average length of stay in a refugee camp 17 years? No. Listen again here - 📻 bbc.in/1U2h0CB
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Are 74% of African girls aged 15-24 HIV positive? We find out on today's @BBCMoreOrLess bbc.in/1XovkIu.
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Have you had a coincidence crazier than this? Email us at moreorless@bbc.co.uk & our expert will calculate the odds.
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Is London the most diverse city in the world? Find out on tonight's @BBCMoreOrLess bbc.in/1RoKk6Z 22.50 GMT
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Mayra Buvinic of @CGDev tells @BBCMoreOrLess how surveys often fail to capture data on women bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0790cg…
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What’s more profitable Coca-Cola or the iPhone? We work it out at 4.30pm on @BBCMoreOrLess @BBCRadio4.
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Why is greedy guts @TimHarford eating lemon dessert? Find out by listening to @BBCMoreOrLess on @BBCRadio4 at 4.30pm
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Is the iPhone the most profitable product on earth? We weigh up some tasty contenders at 4.30pm today on @BBCRadio4
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Are fire deaths really up BY 21% in a single year? Well, yes, but that's not quite the whole story...
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Is the iphone the most profitable product in history?@BBCRoryCJ thinks it is. Email thoughts to moreorless@bbc.co.uk
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Sir Andrew Wiles is off to Oslo to accept #AbelPrize for work on Fermat’s last theorem. @SLSingh explains the maths.
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