Big downgrade in GDP growth forecast for next year from OBR 2026: 1.2% (was 1.1 in spring forecast) 2027: 1% (1.6) 2028: 1.6% (1.6) 2029: 1.8% (1.5) 2030: 1.7% (1.5) 2031: 1.6%

There’s a feeling going around that the rising Arab turnout could put Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu in danger of dropping beneath the threshold. I’m doubtful, but even if it does happen, it will add perhaps 2-3 seats to the Netanyahu bloc, not enough to give them a majority. OTOH since Lieberman is the opposition leader who most strenuously opposed cooperation with Arab parties, it could make it easier for Eisenkot to quickly form a minority government with the outside support of Arab parties

‘You might as well put Kim Kardashian in as chief of staff!' Republican delegate @AngieWong thinks Nicki Minaj would make a great Trump press secretary. @BenKentish isn’t so sure…

On this Israeli election day, I’d recommend reading this extraordinary @haaretzcom interview with billionaire Ronald Lauder, president of the World Jewish Congress and once one of Benjamin Netanyahu’s closest confidants. One of Lauder’s most striking conclusions: “I realized at the end of the day that Israel really didn't want peace, but they wanted dominance.” This is coming from someone who helped launch Netanyahu’s political career, introduced him to powerful figures in American politics and media, and secretly negotiated with Hafez al-Assad and Rafik Hariri on his behalf in the late 1990s. In one of the interview’s biggest revelations, Lauder says Netanyahu agreed to a comprehensive peace deal with Syria and Lebanon, including withdrawal from the Golan Heights, but ultimately refused to sign it for political reasons. “He chose politics over peace. He put his political future before the deal.” Now 82, Lauder describes his profound disillusionment with Israel’s direction. After decades of supporting Israeli and Jewish institutions, he has sold his Tel Aviv apartment, given away his Be’er Sheva property, and says he has no intention of returning to Israel. He warns that Netanyahu’s dependence on figures like Ben-Gvir and Smotrich is damaging Israel, alienating diaspora Jews and eroding support in Washington. The interview is also full of fascinating details about Lauder’s role in Netanyahu’s political rise. The two became close friends in the 1980s, when Netanyahu was Israel’s ambassador to the UN, speaking almost daily at times. Lauder says he introduced Netanyahu to speech coach Lilyan Wilder to improve his public speaking and, crucially, to Republican strategist Arthur Finkelstein, who would become instrumental in Netanyahu’s electoral success. When Netanyahu left New York to pursue a political career in Israel, Lauder threw him a farewell party attended by some of the most influential figures in American media and politics, including Rupert Murdoch and the head of the New York Times. Lauder recalls opening doors for Netanyahu and helping him cultivate the relationships that would underpin his rise to power. What makes this interview so revealing is that Lauder is no longtime critic of Israel. He had been a committed Zionist, a Republican power broker, and a man who spent decades financing Jewish institutions, cultivating relationships with Arab leaders, and pursuing diplomatic openings on Israel’s behalf. A fascinating read 👇 haaretz.com/israel-news/elec…

💥With no explanation, the Likud has submitted a request to extend voting hours beyond 10 pm.

What were they thinking? My @ConHome piece on the pro-Ukrainian British politicians who backed Trump in 2024 and how their tribalism got the better of them. conservativehome.com/2026/10…

A really useful one-minute explainer on how to destroy your political reputation in exchange for a lot of money.

This aged well…

RT @robertshrimsley: That's why they are so keen to rubbish a report on antisemitism in schools. Because they are the ones with the hierarc…

Greens back to exactly where they were when Zack Polanski took over. Turns out the party obsessing over Zionism isn’t all that popular.

'If only you were talking about the environment as much as you were Zionism!' @BenKentish puts it to a Green Party councillor that any brand issues the party face are 'totally self-inflicted'.

'Is that a really good use of his time?' 'Raising money for a cancer charity?' The Green Party's @floschechter brands Andy Burnham going on Gogglebox as 'ridiculous'.

'A third of British children are living in poverty… that is violence to me.' The Greens' @floschechter calls for people inspired by French protests to join an upcoming anti-austerity march. @BenKentish asks if they condemn the violence that took place in Europe last week.

We’re now at the point where they’re having to argue that claims about the Board of Depities of British Jews secretly controlling government policy has nothing to do with, er, British Jews. Fully down the rabbithole stuff.

The cyberpocalypse is going to hit British politics like an asteroid. So many people have heads buried so far in the sand (just look at what Parliament spends its time discussing...)