Meet Thomas, a 35-year-old who got hooked to FanDuel and DraftKings in the pandemic, ended up $50,000 in the red. He filed for bankruptcy and signed up for a Pennsylvania registry that banned him from using betting apps. More recently, he saw an ad for Kalshi offering a cash bonus. He got the app and couldn’t put it down. He’s now living with his mom and grandmother and taking loans from them to afford food and car insurance payments. “I have a gambling addiction” he wrote to Kalshi, begging for them to ban him, which they eventually did. But not before he was more than $25,000 in the hole. Thomas represents dark side of the prediction market boom: Problem gamblers who relapse with Kalshi, which has blanketed TV, social media, sports stadiums, bus stations, trains, with ads trying to attract new traders, just as they insist they are not a gambling operator. That means they don’t honor “self-exclusion” registries maintained by states like Pennsylvania. Mental health clinicians say that creates a loophole for people like Thomas. What really got Thomas were Kalshi’s 15-minute crypto markets, where you can make a binary trade on whether Bitcoin will be above or below a certain number every 15 minutes. There were times he was betting 18 hours a day in these markets. He told me: “The odds flip so quickly. It’s such a rush. And when I’d lose, my brain just kept wanting to win it back. I never even traded Bitcoin or any crypto, but I just kept coming back to the rush of how unpredictable the markets were.” A clinician I spoke to called 15-minute crypto markets “a slot machine in your pocket” npr.org/2026/10/02/nx-s1-598…

Flavio Bolsonaro appears to have fled Brazil after losing the presidential election. What was he running from? This important investigation from @revistapiaui indicate he was a partner in an offshore betting company. piaui.uol.com.br/web/best-be…

“There is potential for data and visuals from prediction markets being used as evidence for rumoring during election night and after. We might see prediction markets experience drastic swings as ballots get counted, as evidenced by markets moving rapidly during the recent 2026 Brazilian presidential elections, and these swings could be seen as evidence for election fraud.”

“If a bunch of kids who have just started a company can do this, then potentially, the Chinese aren’t far behind,” the official said. He added that he was taken aback by “how little time it took to get into the sensitive systems of a company that is controlling almost nuclear weapons grade material.”

Microsoft is offering buyouts to 60,000(!) employees. Headcount and revenue growth is really starting to diverge at tech companies.

“He ticks off grievances that include inflation, war in Iran and the influence of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee lobbying group. The final betrayal, he says, was Republicans’ inclination to protect the rich and powerful rather than prosecute those named in the records of disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein. …he recommends making friends with people who are stocking up on beans, rice, gold and silver and raising chickens. “Those are the people that are actually paying attention to what’s actually happening,” he said.” bloomberg.com/news/features/…

Elon Musk has spent more money on American elections in the last two years than George Soros has in his entire life.

When I broke the story that imprisoned Elizabeth Holmes and Billy Evans were secretly forming a new startup to get back into the medical device industry, Evans fought me hard over Holmes’ involvement, saying she was on the outside of it and not an advisor. Which is why it was quite striking when, minutes into You Can See Everything, Fielder captures Holmes making calls about the new startup…. npr.org/2025/05/10/nx-s1-539…

A man attending the Theranos trial told me and other reporters covering the case that his name was “Hanson,” and that he fixed up old cars for a living. He said he was a “concerned citizen,” and that the judge had it out for Elizabeth Holmes. I had questions, so I looked into him and found he was a San Diego hotelier who collected antique cars. His son was Billy Evans, Holmes’ romantic partner and the father of her children. npr.org/2021/09/14/103683586…

“Elon Musk’s personal lawyer, Alex Spiro, has joined Polymarket’s board and is now helping with day-to-day operations, including hiring, people familiar with his involvement said.”

Very excited to get to work with the great @BobbyAllyn

Personal news: After nearly 8 years at NPR, I’m excited to share that I’m going to Bloomberg to help lead coverage of the prediction market industry. I’ll be joining their mighty crypto and prediction markets team, which has long been doing really impressive work for @business and @BW. I start just after midterms. Kalshi/Polymarket/PM tips or convos: ballyn.77 on Signal

credit to @BobbyAllyn for breaking that bizarre story (i'm quoted in it!) npr.org/2021/09/14/103683586…

Billions of dollars’ worth of contracts predicting oil would fall and the S&P 500 would rise were placed about 15 minutes before Trump announced a U-turn on Iran in a post on Truth Social. CFTC staff began to investigate-- then were told to lay off. bloomberg.com/news/features/…

"The trading in question was eye-popping. In a two-minute window starting at 6:49 a.m. in New York on March 23, traders sold contracts equivalent to at least 6 million barrels of Brent and West Texas Intermediate, more than 8.5 times the volume that had changed hands that time in the morning over the prior week."

News: The FTC is beginning to probe the now massive online sports gambling industry Some social conservatives within the GOP have grown alarmed by impact on young men despite general embrace by Trump admin washingtonsun.com/administra…

New Reuters poll is brutal for prediction markets: 75/8 say prediction sites are gambling 60/13 oppose election markets 43/29 oppose sports markets 65/8 oppose US military markets 63/9 oppose markets on US gov. policy decisions Broad opposition across party lines