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Southeast, USA
An interesting point on these losses: - AP #2 BYU (CFBN #10) - #7 Ole Miss (#15)
- #8 Texas Tech (#9)
- #11 Tennessee (#18) - #15 Iowa (#28) - #16 USC (#24) 5/6 teams were power-rated 7+ slots lower in our model than their AP ranking, and were underdogs or only 1-score favorites. Texas Tech was really the lone true surprise here. The other teams were all more about record catching up to quality. USC and Iowa had lost to the only good teams they’d played before Saturday. It turns out that models favoring Penn State over USC in power ratings despite multiple close losses (e.g. to Wisconsin) weren’t *so* crazy.
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Man, the coaches at [my top-15 team] suck this year. We have no [run game / pass game] and the defense doesn’t show up sometimes. No one else loses these games. We should clean house and do better.
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The current state of Alabama’s defense: Players Out: DT1 DT2 DT3 CB1 CB3 NB1 NB2 OLB2 OLB3 Among others.
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College Football Nerds retweeted
Indiana has had this for some time. Hopefully there's massive layers of integration beyond simply bouncing screen caps from an all 22 against a canned LLM model. If not, Texas, please give me a call, I'll send you my resume.
Texas is all in on AI. The school is launching Bevo Lab, a 25,000-square-foot sports AI hub, and coaches are already quizzing Google’s Gemini about opponents. @kirkgoldsberry: “The biggest mystery here is why did it take so freaking long for this to happen at a university?”
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Mass Effect was my favorite game series ever. Sad day for the dev of many of my all-time favorites. Likely unpopular opinion: AI in game dev may be a good thing because AAA dev is way too expensive to be sustainable. Fewer jobs in a far more stable market isn't such a bad thing.
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Yes, of course if a team can afford to only take AA-caliber veteran transfers that's great. But my point is that the best staffs will find a few 3* undervalued guys to fill out their classes to go along wit a few true impact 5* types. Signing all 4*s is probably inefficient.
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A corollary - a team taking only highly rated players is probably a sign of a staff that doesn't evaluate well. The best coaches are going to find guys who are underrated by services, and thus have lower NIL costs, to fit more high-quality players on the same roster.
Right or wrong. Several GMs/coaches have confirmed to me that all agents begin their base starting salary points with: “My client is rated “X” let’s start the bidding at “Y””
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I'm seeing this play everywhere as evidence that Ryan Grubb is a terrible playcaller, but tbh I think it's far more likely that someone (likely #30 Meadows) runs the wrong route, causing Russell to hold the ball for the sack. Also, bad missed DPI on #3 trying to run an out.
I need February to get here tommorow
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I should clarify in view of a couple of comments, yes this would be called defensive holding and not DPI because the pass isn't thrown. It'd only be DPI if thrown to #3.
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This is infuriating. Being mainly a zone-structured team in base downs isn’t an excuse, it’s why the scheme is flawed. A great OC wrecked Bama because he knew the coverage pre-snap. The scheme was still zone even vs clock kill down 2 scores and no vert threat. No plan B.
Kane Wommack responds to Tenn QB G.MacIntyre saying UT knew coverages would be soft, and took advantage.
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People keep theorizing that the game plan was to take away Heupel's strengths by limiting deep shots and making them work the field until it's compressed. I'll push back - the game plan was "this is our defense so we're going to run it." Yes, it's a good fit to Heupel's base scheme. But Heupel hasn't really been running that scheme, and it was clear pretty fast they were going to take things slow in this game. As time wore on and Bama needed stops and turnovers, you HAVE to adjust your defensive approach to play complementary football and get stops or turnovers. Tennessee had no need to take risks, so you aren't going to get lucky picks sitting in zone (bc they were NOT taking shots down field). Bama, at that point, needed to force Tennessee into throwing downfield, with the expectation that their QB wasn't very good at making them and might force a game-changing turnover. But all that seems mind-bogglingly academic when the reality is I saw zero indication that Bama can run anything but their base 3-3-5 stack scheme. They aren't multiple. They can't run a 4-4 and go cover-1. They can't run a 5-2 and press man on the outside. Understanding real life isn't Madden (players can't run whatever you call no matter what without practice), you need to rep a Plan B, C, and D to succeed at a playoff level. So, until proven otherwise, I just have to assume Bama's D can be elite when their scheme matches up against the opponent scheme and game situation. It will suck when it doesn't. And "they're going to pound the ball on us in a low scoring game until we tire late" is unfortunately a scheme/situation teams are seeing a LOT of in playoff-deciding games now.
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It makes sense to have a double-clear here if this is a zone flood concept with a simple out route underneath. That's also not really a shot play. If so, then it *wasn't* the emphasis on shot plays people keep saying. This is why I hadn't done an offensive thread. It's hard to break down what really happened on this kind of play from TV copy and without knowing the call.
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I may talk more on it, but I see two common threads: 1) Gilliam blew up so, so many plays on the interior that it totally wrecked Bama's offense. 2) The crowd noise meant silent count, which keeps the OL from getting the jump on snaps and generating push, which meant they were dealing with leakage almost every play. 3) My bigger coaching concern was a general lack of poise and execution from their offense than the calls. 4) Tennessee's defense hadn't been properly tested by a true passing attack. They graded out FAR better in the secondary than I anticipated.
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Stumbled on this and I wonder if it also holds true to the pregame win probability metrics on ESPN. I've long suspected that ESPN's SOR has a major flaw, and that it appears to be overestimating the chance of losing easy games (making easy schedules badly overvalued).
I figured out how ESPN calculates fantasy football win percentage, it’s bad! ESPN made a stats 101 error when calculating their win percentage which leads to horribly miscalibrated numbers. (🧵 thread)
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SOR in ESPN works by calculating the chance that a team would have the same record with a given schedule. What I've noticed over time is that it appears to dramatically overestimate the difficulty of going 11-1 with a PAC-12 /MWC level schedule. It's not clear why.
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For a few years now we’ve talked about how Wommack’s defense at Bama is built to stop the Auburns and Tennessees but not the Georgias. So how did Heupel outcoach Bama? Because Tennessee fans were right to say they could adapt to be Georgia, and Bama couldn’t. Let me explain.
Tennessee QB George MacIntyre: "Bama, we knew they were going to play really soft on the outside. By soft, I mean, like, deep — not really letting any shots over the top. I felt like their game plan was just to keep having [us] snap it again, snap it again and make us sustain drives. And I feel like, especially in the second half, that's what we did." 247sports.com/college/alabam…
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I think Wommack is a good guy, and seems to coach his players well. But he has two fatal flaws: 1) His father’s “swarm D” scheme was built for the 2010’s spread, not pro offenses. 2) He defaults to zone when things aren’t working, and blitzes predictably, so he doesn’t dictate.
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If Bama wants to compete with playoff-caliber teams, who often rely on power and great OL play (not RPO or spread), they MUST add a secondary power scheme to the defensive playbook. Heupel outcoached Bama by NOT running his scheme. Bama MUST adapt their scheme (or DC) to match.
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