Insights & visualisations on politics, economics and business.
New Zealand
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The number of NZ Super recipients will hit the one million milestone within the next nine months. Treasury projects that it will take less than 40 years to reach two million...
For context, expenditure on NZ Super (net of tax) was NZ$20.6B in the year to June 2026.
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The enrolment rate at the 🇳🇿 election has already matched the final 2017 rate of 92.4%. It may exceed 93% since people can still enrol this weekend, and there'll be a backlog of enrolments to process.
Youth enrolment is now at 69.9%, so could still pass the 72.3% level of 2017.
There's still plenty of uncertainty, but the final overall enrolment rate at this NZ election looks like it could end up between 92% and 93%, similar to 2014 and 2017.
The lowest final enrolment rate in the past 40 years was 91.1% in 1999, and the highest was 95.3% in 2008.
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The table is available at this page from the Electoral Commission providing daily enrolment updates: vote.nz/2026-general-electio…
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Despite the cost of fuel, the number of regular bikes being imported to NZ remains well below the levels seen before 2023.
E-bike and e-scooter imports continue to recover from their 2025 low, but the 62k units imported in the year to September were still well down on 2022.
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It's interesting that Te Puni Kōkiri, the Ministry of Māori Development, still has a 2021 video on its website featuring gang leaders encouraging vaccination. Then-Minister Willie Jackson said "... they have a love for their people. It's good to see."
New data shows 58% of gang-affiliated prisoners in NZ released in 2023/24 were reimprisoned within two years, much higher than the 39% of non-gang-affiliated prisoners.
Meanwhile, Police report that over 25,000 charges were laid against gang members in the 20 months to June 2026.
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New data shows 58% of gang-affiliated prisoners in NZ released in 2023/24 were reimprisoned within two years, much higher than the 39% of non-gang-affiliated prisoners.
Meanwhile, Police report that over 25,000 charges were laid against gang members in the 20 months to June 2026.
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The pattern looks like it’ll be very similar at the 2026 election, judging by this 1News chart based on 183k Vote Compass responses.
The Māori electorates and the two Wellington city electorates stand apart from all other electorates. The Wellington bubble is alive and well.
NZ's regional political leanings have been quite consistent in recent elections - starting from the most left-leaning:
Māori electorates
Wellington
Chch & Dunedin
Auckland
NI urban (excl Welly & Auckland)
SI rural
NI rural
TOP & Greens do especially well in Welly, Chch & Dunedin.
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An article with more detail about the analysis of the Vote Compass data is at: 1news.co.nz/2026/10/22/some-…
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Only 28% of New Zealanders now view the United States as a friend, according to a new poll by the Asia NZ Foundation. That figure was 61% in 2024.
Perceptions of China have fallen significantly too, with just 23% of Kiwis viewing China as a friend, down from 43% in early 2026.
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More info about the September 2026 US and China mini-poll survey are available at: asianz.org.nz/new-poll-new-z…
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Surely the Commission will provide a new official count timeframe now that there's little sign that special votes will get anywhere near 700k?
It hasn't taken longer than 14 days in modern elections (other than the two with e-day enrolment) & the staffing budget is up 5x on 2017.
Enrolment has inched up by about 21k in the last five days. To reach the enrolment rate of 2023 (94.7%) the Electoral Commission would need to enrol another 107k people in the next three days.
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The chart is from their October NZ Housing chart pack: cotality.com/nz/resources?84…
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Here’s an NZ Herald (premium) article with far more context: nzherald.co.nz/business/pers…
The latest MJW investment report shows Milford's long reign as the top-performing KiwiSaver growth fund over 10 years has come to an end - Simplicity has entered the rankings at No. 1 with 9.9% p.a returns (after fees, before tax) vs Milford's 9.6%.
MAS, Generate & BNZ were next.
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New research from ANZ shows that the current house-price-to-income ratio in the Wellington region has now fallen below its average since 1998. Auckland's ratio is bang on its long-run average, while Canterbury's is a little bit above.
Queenstown-Lakes on the other hand... 🥶
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The chart is from ANZ's October Property Focus report at: anz.co.nz/content/dam/anzcon…
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