cbbi.info @cbbi_daily โAll paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value โ ZEROโ (Voltaire 1729) Fiat is the scam that enables all other scams.
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As a $BTC bear since Nov 17, 2025, I am willing to concede that there is now a good chance the bottom could be in.
I had been expecting the likeliest outcome as a break down from the $62.3k level and it broke up instead. I got that wrong. I am therefore being quick to adjust my opinion since new data has presented itself.
We have a valid bottoming pattern (inverse Head and Shoulders) that broke out with strength and volume. We are 10 months into the bear market, which is a long time. BTC is now above the 200-day MA and above the long-term downtrending diagonal line (see the dotted line).
That being said, I'm still cautious about the coming few months. I think we could chop sideways during that time as it is still early in the bottoming process. IMO, it's likely we will retrace some of the recent move we've seen ($62.7k -> $72.5k), in the coming weeks/months.
Sentiment is quite excited at the moment and I view that more as a local topping indicator (I think we're close to exhaustion of this move). Also, it's only been ~2 days so far from the breakout, so it's good to watch what price action does (to see the weekly candle confirmation, etc.)
But will $BTC make new cycle lows? That's the key question. I am now viewing it as *less likely*, although not impossible. I currently give 70% odds the bottom is in at $57.8k.
Additionally, I am not chasing the price after such a big move as we've seen from $62.7k to $72.5k, and considering how early we are in the bottoming process. We are not in the euphoric final stages of a bull run where the price can keep ripping. This is the first potential move out of a bear market. Early stages.
KEY LEVEL
$67k, the neckline of the iH&S, is the new key support. I do think it will retest this level, at a minimum, later this year. That may be where I buy in more. All my sells were considerably higher, so this remains a profitable strategy.
STRATEGY MODIFICATION
I'm no longer waiting for $51k to re-buy back in with the last remaining 35% of my cash (see this post where you can see how I already have been DCAing back in, over the past few months: nitter.siddz.com/ColinTCrypto/status/20โฆ)
The goal should never be to time the bottom perfectly as that's near-impossible. My goal is just to be generally early before the majority of the next bull run move occurs, and to be profitable with any sells I've made. Otherwise, my goal is just to hodl the majority of my BTC holdings.
HEATED DEBATE
I am aware this is a heated debate right now (whether the bottom is in or not), and I see some lashing out toxically when posts like this are made (most are non-verified members, interestingly, which is why I set this post to "only verified members can reply"). Thank you to the rest of you for being civil.
Markets are ever-evolving and one must be nimble and adjust, taking in new data. We all make forecasts, but no one can see the future. In the last few days we've had significant, new key data (the breakout of an iH&S with volume) and as such, I am quickly digesting this new data and making this updated opinion.
๐ณ๏ธ So, let it be stated that I pivoted from bearish to bullish on August 20, 2026. ๐ณ๏ธ
I considered naming this post "Humble Pie".
[References] This is when I pivoted from bullish to bearish last year, around Nov 17th: nitter.siddz.com/ColinTCrypto/status/19โฆ
nitter.siddz.com/ColinTCrypto/status/19โฆ
nitter.siddz.com/ColinTCrypto/status/19โฆ
$BTC broke out to $69.6k โ
It jumped up by $5k in an hour!
IS THE BOTTOM IN??
Thatโs the big question on everyoneโs mind.
BTC climbed up to the 200-day MA, for the second touch of this moving average during the bear market. The previous time was May 2026 at $82k.
In past bear markets, this moving average has been tagged twice as well, and lower prices were still eventually reached. This is normal behavior. Does it mean it will happen again?
Bulls will state that past behavior isnโt a guarantee of future behavior, and thus, BTC won't go lower again this time, and the bottom is in. Could it be? Itโs possible, and increasingly so. I'm not saying they're wrong. The odds of bulls being wrong just went down. But I'm also not yet 100% convinced they are right. My confidence is a sliding scale-- not binary.
We are close enough, in time, to the final bottom zone that I wouldnโt rule out the bottom being in at this point. Furthermore, bitcoin has formed an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which is a bottom pattern. BUT it's only a few hours into this pattern, and typical confirmation (to avoid fakeouts and deviations) should allow for the daily and even weekly candle closes. Because a bitcoin bear market is a multi-month process, longer time-frame candles are more reliable.
However! In past bear markets BTC has still gone lower in the months that follow, so itโs not a guaranteed celebration yet, imho. In terms of time, we are also a couple of months away from a typical cycle bottom. That's not the only way of measuring things though.
Ultimately, maybe we just get a re-test of the lows, rather than new lows. There are many possibilities for how this plays out.
The truth is-- there are many metrics and methods of analysis that go both ways (stating the bottom is in and stating the bottom is not in). This is because we are in the BOTTOMING ZONE-- we're getting CLOSE if the bottom isn't in already.
With a long enough investing time horizon we are close enough that it won't matter much.
My personal guess is that we still see the price drop back down, to the range lows at a minimum, within the next ~2 months. This is my guess, though. It gets more difficult to accurately predict when we get toward the actual bottom, as things get less definitive (it's easier to say the bottom is not in when we're further from it).
Money Speaks Louder Than Words. What Am I Actually Doing?
Iโve already allocated 42% of my cash back into BTC around the $60k-$62k level. This is me DCAing back in. I also allocated another 23% to a stock I feel very confident about ($ABCL) which recently doubled in price, much to my satisfaction. But I also continue to hold my last 35% portion of cash for further dip-buying opportunities in the 4-8 weeks to come.
One thing is for sure: we are in the final inning of the bear market (assuming there is some bear market remaining). I have never said it was wrong to begin DCAing from the low $60k range. Like I said: I, myself, *began* doing so between $60-$62k.
But rather than chase euphoric FOMO pump-candles (like we're seeing now), I think it's best to buy on *dips*.
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$BTC Short term bullish
After sweeping the low and putting in a local bottom, the 50-DMA has held, and BTC has broken out of the diagonal trend. These are all bullish elements.
Next immediate resistance level is the zone at $84.2k
My guess is we eventually push through $84.2k (possibly getting rejected there first) and then a re-test of the range highs ($87k) in the coming week.
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$BTC Preliminary breakout?
We want to see some follow-through to avoid a fake-out, with a close minimally above local highs of $84k, but BTC *appears* to be picking a direction, thus far. Looking good.
Bulls are in control right now. ๐
$BTC volatility squeeze.
The calm before the storm.
Breakout move likely soon.
Will we see a continuation upward or a breakdown?
There are arguments for moves in either direction.
Assuming the BTC cycle bottom is in, the trend favors a continuation upward. This would mean it would hold the 50-day MA as support (with the exception of brief wicks below it). In this case, we could see a price increase to the low-to-mid $90k's in the coming weeks. At a bare minimum we'd re-test range highs, around $87k.
However, if BTC breaks decisively below the $80k support level shown, it converts the move above the May high into a deviation and then lower prices are fair game. In this case the most logical support levels immediately below are $75k and then $67.2k. I'd say both are fair game if the price can't hold $80k.
Rather than try to predict the outcome (no one can see the future), let's just watch and see if Bitcoin loses $80k or not. If it holds $80k then bulls can expect more positive price action-- minimally, to $87k.
The move should come soon. The decreasing volatility is telling us decision time is coming up.
How I'm playing it:
I'm 90% allocated with 10% cash. If we see a $94k price in short order (if the move up is quick enough; aka overheated enough) I will take a small amount of profit (a short-term trade), OR, if BTC breaks down instead, I will eye my re-entry with my final cash position to buy my last tranche of BTC.
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RT @ColinTCrypto: $BTC volatility squeeze.
The calm before the storm.
Breakout move likely soon.
Will we see a continuation upward or a brโฆ
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$BTC volatility squeeze.
The calm before the storm.
Breakout move likely soon.
Will we see a continuation upward or a breakdown?
There are arguments for moves in either direction.
Assuming the BTC cycle bottom is in, the trend favors a continuation upward. This would mean it would hold the 50-day MA as support (with the exception of brief wicks below it). In this case, we could see a price increase to the low-to-mid $90k's in the coming weeks. At a bare minimum we'd re-test range highs, around $87k.
However, if BTC breaks decisively below the $80k support level shown, it converts the move above the May high into a deviation and then lower prices are fair game. In this case the most logical support levels immediately below are $75k and then $67.2k. I'd say both are fair game if the price can't hold $80k.
Rather than try to predict the outcome (no one can see the future), let's just watch and see if Bitcoin loses $80k or not. If it holds $80k then bulls can expect more positive price action-- minimally, to $87k.
The move should come soon. The decreasing volatility is telling us decision time is coming up.
How I'm playing it:
I'm 90% allocated with 10% cash. If we see a $94k price in short order (if the move up is quick enough; aka overheated enough) I will take a small amount of profit (a short-term trade), OR, if BTC breaks down instead, I will eye my re-entry with my final cash position to buy my last tranche of BTC.
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Also how I'm playing it:
I've actually got half of my remaining 10% cash sitting in a buy order around $78,720 with the idea that we will get a fake-out and then a rip higher.
I believe what may happen is a sharp fakeout to the downside and then a bigger move upwards.
If this order fills, it would put me at a 95% allocation and I would also be able to take profit on any sharp rebounds upward (as described in the post above).
Obviously, I am just guessing what will happen. It's easy to be wrong with a guess. I am not recommending anyone follow this as it could easily be wrong. But it's how I'm positioned.
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Itโs going to be difficult to be an Elon hater when heโs doing cool stuff like this.
To the haters: like, are you lame or are you lame?
nitter.siddz.com/sawyermerritt/status/2โฆ
https://nitter.siddz.com/t.co/ogdFi0ET7W
Sawyer Merritt
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$BTC looking weak.
โข BTC tagged the 50-day MA as support, again. It hadn't done so since August. This shows losing momentum.
โข BTC dropped below $82.8k (the May high), reclaimed it and then dropped below it *again*. Two losses of this key level. Another signal of losing momentum.
โข BTC formed a Double Top (end of Sept. and beginning of Oct.) and confirmed this pattern by breaking down. Bearish as well.
It looks like BTC is hunting out its next higher low.
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$BTC broke above the previous local high of $82.8K and made its first higher high.
As Iโve said since August 20 (even before the recent move above $82.8k), I think the bottom is likely in. The recent higher high *further* increases my confidence that the cycle low is in, up to an 85%.
BUT, what are the odds that BTC does *not* go below $82.8K ever again? That seems like pretty low odds to me.
That would be like saying the next higher LOW is going to somehow be above the previous higher HIGH. Extremely unlikely, imo.
Therefore, I do think we see a price somewhere between the cycle low of $57k and $80k again before the year is over. And the more likely range is $67k-$75k.
So for now, Iโm keeping my BTC buy limit order at $71.7k (with my final 25% remaining cash, as I already bought a lot around $62k) and I will watch what the market does. I will adjust that orderโs price up to a maximum of $75K, depending on how strong or weak BTC looks in the coming weeks.
Is there really anyone out there saying the next higher LOW is going to be ABOVE $82.8k and never visit below it again?
A higher low can be formed without making new lows. The low can still be in.
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ETH/BTC
Looks lke $ETHBTC may have found its local top and has some downside ahead of it.
ETH/BTC bottomed with a perfect inverse head-and-shoulders pattern in May-July 2026, then it broke out and reached its target before getting rejected back below key level 0.032
Breakout turned into a deviation. A pretty brutal brutal rejection. Just like when your mom hit on me. More downside from here. My guess is it minimally retests the neckline breakout point of 0.0285
This isn't great for alts either. I suspect they mostly bleed from here (as priced in BTC) for a while. BTC is usually the first to lead the way with Alts following later. BTC needs a good few years of bull market before TRUE Altseason begins.
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๐จ A new kind of hardware wallet scam
Even if the official Ledger software verifies your device as genuine, funds can STILL be stolen if there is a *physical modification* within the case of your device. Scary stuff.
See images of the physical exploit in the post below.
It sounds like now, to be fully safe, we have to physically open our hardware wallet and look inside? Lol ๐ฎ Kind of ridiculous.
This is why itโs important to buy directly from the manufacturer. But even then, until you look inside, youโll never truly know if your device is unmodified.
Theoretically, this could affect any type of hardware wallet that has a circuit board and a case around it. This could be the explanation for the recent series of Ledger wallet drains.
This looks like this could be exactly what I'm investigating. Anyone affected, please contact me or open your ledger and send me pictures so we can confirm if there's a bug in there (pictures: ledger board on top, spy implant below).
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How the scam works:
The scammerโs additional chip actually READS the Ledgerโs display output (it is physically soldered onto the Ledger circuit board) and is able to steal the private key by literally viewing what is output on the screen (seed phrase words). It then transmits this seed phrase over the Internet to the scammer.
New versions are apparently even more difficult to spot as theyโre hidden behind the screen.
nitter.siddz.com/magicaltux/status/2100โฆ
The new implant is hidden by the screen, so I would expect some people may miss it. The easiest tell is the antenna cable which really looks out of place.
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Just finished moving my long-term BTC to fresh addresses that have never been spent from.
For now, it seems the easiest thing one can do, with relative ease, in terms of quantum protection. This makes oneโs coins harder to steal than the next guy's, by moving them to a new wallet (can be the same seed phrase) that has no spends (spending reveals the public key and makes it easier for quantum to crack that key pair).
A quantum attacker cannot target the key pair if the public key has never been published. Thatโs what a fresh wallet address does.
If you plan on doing this make sure youโre very careful and take your time. Thereโs no rush.
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Lmfao
I actually laughed out loud on this one. ๐๐๐
Some people are in such bad mental shape.
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That, folks, is a Double Top. $BTC
It's a local topping pattern, followed by a break down.
It doesn't mean new lows for the cycle are required-- just a corrective period.
A higher low was going to happen sooner or later. This has been my thesis for a while now.
The big question is: how low of a higher low?
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A higher low was inevitable. $BTC
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