NY Times Bestselling Author, over 1 million copies sold, now published in 12 languages globally. Long-time @CNBC Contributor, founder of the @BearTrapsReport
New York, NY
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Got Hard Assets?
It's Happening - Financial Repression
Breaking - LONG-TERM US YIELDS DROP ON TREASURY PLANS TO BOOST BUYBACKS - Bloomberg
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Quick update - a few things you need to know right now.
CIO level Ideas Dinner - Special thanks to Astrid & Gaston! An outstanding venue.
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Looking down the road ahead. Special thanks to StoneX for hosting us in Lima, Peru this week. Pension funds, family offices, some of Latam’s best. Gratitude 🙏
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WH Sr. Adviser Hassett: Inflation looks like it's back and needs some work.
*From 2012-2020 (the Lost World), the highest year-over-year inflation print was 2.9%, vs. 3.7% in last week's CPI data.
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ANTHROPIC PROPOSES AI SAFETY BILL TO LAWMAKERS: POLITICO
*Translation -- We are worried about our spineless MOAT, so we need help from Washington to keep cheap China / Asia AI out of the USA.
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Important color from this week’s CIO level Ideas Dinner in NYC, special thanks to the Harvard Club for hosting a UMass guy. Software $IGV ETF off -5% today - After weaker (potentially disruptive) incoming data, many fortune 500 companies (like Goldman) are moving away from “frontier models” in favor of a portfolio of cheaper open source plays. Alert - Anthropic needs to juice their forward looking revenue - Pollyannish outlook - into the (expected) November IPO, software names have a target 🎯 on their back.
cc @chamath @RealJimChanos @jimwpaulsen @nfergus @andrewrsorkin @RaoulGMI
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Shot last week, @MichelleMakori is ALWAYS a few steps ahead.
Rate cuts by early 2027?
Larry McDonald @Convertbond argues the Fed can’t sustain rate hikes amid $1.1 trillion in government debt interest and mounting consumer stress. He sees a potential shift toward rate cuts and opportunities in gold, silver, REITs, and utilities.
Watch the full interview on The Real Story with @MichelleMakori. YouTube Link in the replies.
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A Multipolar World + $2T deficets in the USA + $2T AI Capex =
Producer Prices - Business Level Inflation
In Q1 / Q2, the BCOM vs. PPI divergence was striking; now the jaws are closing. - Bloomberg Terminal data.
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Dead money forever - clown show.
I like how $NVDA took forevvvvvver to hit a new ATH just 7 days ago and instantly goes into a technical correction literally right afterwards. Lol
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CIOs, Family Office, Portfolio Managers, For a recap of this week’s standout ideas (reach out to our team) - looking down the road ahead - markets are speaking.
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Book Signing - Cocktails / Events — Ideas dinner reserved for Institutional Clients
Today: Greenwich, CT
Nov 12th: Palm Beach, FL
*Celebrating 1M copies sold. Gratitude 🙏
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Again - from “When Markets Speak”
Fiscal and Monetary Response
Lehman / GFC; $4T*
Covid / SVB: $17T**
*2008-2010
*2020-2024
Two Certainties
1. When you DO NOT allow the cleansing process of the business cycle to function over longer and longer periods of time you will manufacture endless Bernie Madoffs.
2. You literally guarantee sustainable, elevated inflation. As stated the the book - please get long hard assets.
Pasquariello: "since the dead lows of March 2009, S&P is up 16-fold (total returns). Along that path, there has been exactly one recession, and it lasted about two months"
2 months of recession in 16 years. Probably normal.
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