I've been getting a ton of questions about how I calculated my numbers, so here are my estimates 👇
1️⃣
@xStocksFi
✔️ Current total points: 37b
✔️ Expected total points: 120b (at a rate of 500m issued per day)
✔️ Campaign end: March 31, 2027
✔️ Airdrop pool: 5%
✔️ FDV at launch: $300m
✔️ Value per point: $0,000125
2️⃣
@hylo_so
✔️ Current total XP: 150b (estimated)
✔️ Expected total XP: 233b (at a rate of 500m issued per day)
✔️ Campaign end: March 31, 2027
✔️ Airdrop pool: 5%
✔️ FDV at launch: $150m
✔️ Value per point: $0,000032
3️⃣
@onrefinance
✔️ Current total points: 272b
✔️ Expected total points: 332b (at a rate of 800m issued per day)
✔️ Campaign end: December 31, 2026
✔️ Airdrop pool: 5%
✔️ FDV at launch: $150m
✔️ Value per point: $0,000023
4️⃣
@Loopscale
✔️ My guess: they drop 5% of the
$ORCA supply
✔️ Current total points: 890b
✔️ Expected total points: 1,040b (at a rate of 2b issued per day)
✔️ Campaign end: December 31, 2026
✔️ Airdrop pool: 5%
✔️ FDV of
$ORCA: $150m
✔️ Value per point: $0,0000072
5️⃣
@bulktrade
✔️ Current total Aura: 18.5m
✔️ Expected total Aura: 47.5m (at a rate of 1m issued per week)
✔️ Campaign end: April 30, 2027
✔️ Airdrop pool: 30%
✔️ FDV at launch: $150m
✔️ Value per Aura: $0,95
I expect all of these projects to launch at a higher FDV than my model assumes. I'm only using a conservative, bear-case estimate. I also don't have any further details on when the campaigns officially end. The rates of daily/weekly issued points is based on the current actual rates.
Do you agree with my calculations?