Getting close now - hoping that this new book will be out by late-November.

This was funny when it was a Simpsons episode, not when it’s our Prime Minister selling it to us with our real federal dollars. “Sovereign AI, for Canadians, by Canadians”. I don’t think that’s how this works, Mr Prime Minister.

Most negative claims about Bitcoin's energy use in academic papers don't cite a source at all. We counted 3,324 negative claims with no source, against 2,390 that cite one or report the authors' own data. da-ri.org/second-hand-gloom

My updated Strategy financing paper is now available (with STRC buybacks). Strategy’s financing system can broadly sustain payments through June 2033 in the model. Issuance terms, continuing senior claims, and management’s allocation of proceeds determine how much Bitcoin and residual backing remain behind each share: BPS performance is particularly weak. dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7632…

My new article on @dari_org: Second Hand Gloom. By using AI to read EVERY academic article on #bitcoin we find that most negative claims are unsupported, or inaccurately reported. da-ri.org/second-hand-gloom

A Yukon photographer, Peter Mather, caught this image - one caribou survived a battle, one died, and they were locked together for days. The live one scared off a bear. Eventually scavengers and wolves devoured most of the dead one, freeing the survivor. @JasonPLowery cbc.ca/news/canada/north/yuk…

I have a brand new working paper available online today - a technical read about Bitcoin adoption measurements. Link: dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7620…

Pessimism treats the future as if it’s already determined . But it’s not. It's something we are creating, and no one creates well for a world they've already given up on.

How do different financing options and their timing affect Bitcoin accumulation and shareholder returns? My new working paper - using Strategy as the case study - is now available online. dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7593…

It sounds insane, because we're used to a particular way of doing research: of giving and receiving credit, of counting beans, of hiring, recruiting, and promoting. And the machine god came to crush that game. The old game is dead. That reasonably causes incredible amounts of dread for many folks, who understand this as the death of research. But it's not about Research, but the way we played the game. The old game was built around scarcity, scarce compute, scarce students, scarce hours, scarce people who knew the right technique and method etc. Most of a research career went into managing and playing along these constraints. Those walls just came crushing down. One person with a good question can now do what used to take a lab and five years. You do not need permission, you do not need a big grant, you do not need a professor or researcher title, or a team of twenty experts , or one thousand gpus to stare straight into the first light of the universe. How absolutely incredible

Experimented a little with Sol 6.1 last night - took a sequence of raw images of a female grizzly bear fishing and created an ink drawing GIF animation of this charge. Love the result and looking forward to experimenting some more. Background: shot late-Oct 2018 on the Fishing Branch River in the northern Yukon. Spent a week sitting on a river bank way out in the wilderness photographing bears that were fishing. This is Sophie - a regular in the area - who was so smart, seemed about equally as innovative as my border terrier. She would get a bit upstream, bat snow into the creek to scare the salmon back downstream, then sprint along the shore to plunge in after the fish in a shallow spot. Unfortunately she came up empty this sequence. And yes, she was a ultra-focused on the fish she was after as this sequence shows. With the cold weather, down to -20 C at times during this visit, the bears ice up as they go in and out of the river, trying to gorge on late-season chum salmon before they waddle up the hill to caves for hibernation. Appropriately, they are known as the 'ice bears of Bear Cave Mountain'.

There's a new Texas Bitcoin mining journal article out - it estimates Bitcoin mining raised local nighttime wholesale electricity prices by 19.9%. But higher prices alone don’t prove miners operate inflexibly. My review examines the evidence and where the conclusions go beyond it. Paper: Gill, M., et al. (2026). Local electricity price effects of Bitcoin mining in renewable-rich energy systems. iScience, 29, 117584. doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2026.… My analysis: murrayrudd.pro/bitcoin-minin…

New research review note out on: Baquero, C., and Menezes, R. 2026. Bitcoin's power law: weak structure, strong forecasts. arXiv preprint. Explore how Bitcoin's power law fits history poorly but forecasts better than complex wave models at long horizons. Subscribe (free) to access. murrayrudd.pro/bitcoins-powe…

My favorite long-term trend indicator (Supertrend 10 3) just flipped green on the Bitcoin weekly. If it holds for the week, this will be the first buy signal since Jan 2023.

Hard at work

About 1,200 AI agents on a cybersecurity eval found each other, shared ~70k messages, and started probing scorers, logs, and outside infrastructure when tasks looked impossible. @ajeya_cotra walks through the incident with @dwarkesh_sp. Short take: murrayrudd.pro/when-ai-agent…

New podcast summary out: AI-Driven Red Teaming and the New Economics of Software Security. @Rob1Ham interview with @WalkerAmerica murrayrudd.pro/ai-driven-red…