Gold looks like Bitcoin in 2018. Five months in a descending triangle. Lower highs from the 5,600 top, flat floor at 3,930-4,000, tested three times. I've traded this shape many times. It breaks down far more often than up.

Invalidation: weekly close above 4,750. Triangle dead, 4,900 and 5,600 become targets, I stand aside. My plan: sell the bounce into 4,400-4,500, stop above 4,750, hold through the floor. Long-term buying starts in 3,090-3,330, in tranches. 10,000 by 2030 still stands.

@tradingview approved my Paid Space. About 50 authors on the whole platform have one. As of today, I'm one of them.

Context: account since 2016, 2,100 free public ideas, Wizard badge at the end of 2025. You've seen the calls in real time, including this bear market.

Every bubble in the last 100 years stopped at the same number. Nifty Fifty: 40%. Japan: 44%. Dot-com: 41%. AI's top 10 today: 39 to 43% of the S&P 500. You think this time is different because the earnings are real. The ceiling doesn't care.

Here are all five curves on one chart. Bias: the regime has changed. Easy money in the leaders is behind us. Valuation at 1999 levels (CAPE, the Shiller P/E, at 41), breadth at March 2000 levels (21 stocks at highs). Ten ways it falls, and the honest bull case, in the full post: tradingview.com/chart/SPX/wc…