I might need to hire some of these "superforecasters" at Tesla, SpaceX or Neuralink, 160+ IQ players are who I want!
We analyzed over 1 billion trades to find out why Kalshi markets are so accurate. A group of 15,000 superforecasters is largely responsible.
What stands out:
-There are 14,694 people on Kalshi who have significantly better predictive ability than other traders. This is measured by Brier skill score, which tracks trader calibration.
-They provide their forecasts to the whole platform, not just the top few markets. Skilled traders are active in 97.3% of markets.
-Timing and category change behavior: for example, superforecasters enter economic markets earlier, and sports markets later.
-These traders aren’t concentrated in the coasts or major cities. They come from all around the country, with Wyoming having the most per capita.
Prediction markets provide an incentive for smart people to do research, think rationally, and share their views with the world.
This incentive has brought almost 15,000 superforecasters to Kalshi, who create a public good by providing accurate forecasts to nearly every market on the platform.