Turning Hindsight Into Foresight | Thematic Investing | Combining Technicals + Macros & Fundamentals + Quantitative Positioning

Micron $MU - '𝘐 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘺𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘴𝘦 𝘨𝘢𝘮𝘦𝘴 𝘣𝘦𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦!!' After popular demand in my mentions amidst all the memory noise, let's do an update on where memory is as we continue to follow exactly with our blueprint from last year: 💡 Around $1,100 I had mentioned memory was still cheap fundamentally, but owning* memory had become historically expensive. What did I mean by that? It's fairly simple. -- Fundamental story for memory is not changing. -- The same fundamental story which drove memory to record highs is still going to be the driving factor behind more record highs next year. However, as someone who expertises in aligning fundamentals and technicals along with quantitative positioning, options market was waving a red flag in memory ownership. Both, IV and Call Skew were trading at record highs, which more often than not, signal stagnant price action moving forward. -- The sell off in summer? Not a sell off at all. -- What we saw happen in Summer was no different what we saw earlier this year in March. The same level of selling pressure has been seen before, and that same level of selling pressure created the next big moment for memory. Long story short, take exactly what happened in March, and elongate that price action by an extra quarter in between. I would not anticipate for memory to keep doubling per quarter like our prior forecasts at Feroce Research were. Instead, I expect memory to double every other quarter from here on out. Something which I discussed in the quoted post ahead of time during peak fomo back in early June. -- Attractive once again. -- Option markets are starting to price in memory at attractive prices once again which brings up another unique opportunity to build exposure in memory yet again. Memory simply had to become range bound in order to bring fear mongering posts out. That is quite literally the point of bringing IV and Call Skew back to regular levels. It does not require a sell off event. It only requires a choppy price action which throws off both sides. -- Price levels? -- As long as Micron can continue to trade above 830s, expect the market to build as much exposure as possible on memory. A floor of $890-900? You are almost guaranteed to start the fresh uptrend which would welcome $1,830s by sometime Q1 of 2027. Keep it simple. Everything happening right now is everything we have discussed months in advance.
🚨I have upgraded my Micron $MU PT to $1,925 by Q1 27’ However, we are approaching what is considered the worst 4-6 next weeks for Memory I’ll keep this post much shorter than the one I made in April: Today marks the 1st week of June, and since I made that post, I had followed up with my non-conservative target of $1,000 by end of May So we have hit the exact targets on price and time window. What’s next from here? If you paid attention to the post in April, it specifically went over why early June was the time-window before Micron peaks. Prior to 3-4 weeks of earnings, micron tends to completely go limp. It’s not till post-earnings does it pick back up steam IF the same cycle continues to happen, there is a chance Micron can see $1,925 by October, however, I believe the pace of memory might not be as steep as we have seen the past 3 quarters. Hence, adding an extra quarter in between till Q1 27’ I won’t dig further than this, just know, I remain bullish on Memory to double, but opportunity cost has led me to downsize Micron for the first time earlier this week since making it my largest holding when it was $90-110 a share last year While the focus still remains on memory, my priority has recently become to focus on the emerging byproduct industry that is solving the memory shortage and its infrastructure
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We’re at disbelief btw $ALAB $PENG $MRVL
Where do you think we are on the memory pooling basket? Retimer + CXL based names all look very identical in recent weeks $ALAB - Astera Labs $MRVL - Marvell $PENG - Penguin Solutions
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bro who is telling cramer about BlackBerry????? just when I thought $BB was the ultra slept on play for software
Speculators This BlackBerry might work. Let's see what they say today...
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Where do you think we are on the memory pooling basket? Retimer + CXL based names all look very identical in recent weeks $ALAB - Astera Labs $MRVL - Marvell $PENG - Penguin Solutions
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approaching 95% capital invested
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Would be funny to see if software $IGV breaks out into new ATHs and everyone talks about how 'overvalued' cybersec and cloud names continue to defy all odds $DDOG $CRWD $NOW $BB $PANW
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Fiscal easing and critical mineral edge that Brazil holds in current times is not going to magically disappear on election results In fact, Lula's terms have actually been net positive for $EWZ and that's all that matters in this case Brazil is a bet on optimism vs any other global EM. Not a bet on who was going to become their president contrary to any short term price action volatility
Yes Brazil fell 20%, but brazil also ran 15% just before, keeping it just -6% for the month and trading at the same prices as it did the last 4 months. EM's are notorious for being illiquid and large ranged. Unless your book is based off a quick trade that you put in on an elections bet, Brazil continues to showcase a strong investment opportunity as it continues to hold up well. Lula or not, Brazil's optimistic approach towards fiscal easing and rate cuts remains a solid trend to bet towards when compared to many global markets out there $EWZ $NU $MELI
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being bearish on memory means you're rooting for your semis investments to fail so choose wisely on how you speak about memory, as memory is the backbone of the entire tech market, friend 🙂 $SMH $DRAM
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big mistake if you’re losing bullishness towards micron $mu here if there’s one industry which I know, atleast I know memory
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Feroce Research retweeted
I love $NBIS but this is a great take. $BE rides the same compute demand wave as neoclouds with none of the long term economic question marks. I am bullish $NBIS but otherwise I would rather just own $BE and ride the rising tide.
Bloom Energy is a better compute/energy play than any neocloud out there If your belief is that we simply do not have enough compute to power the growth of AI, you are likely to see more success through $BE moving forward versus a basket of neoclouds Same reasoning behind both baskets, but vastly different investor confidence between both
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Bloom Energy is a better compute/energy play than any neocloud out there If your belief is that we simply do not have enough compute to power the growth of AI, you are likely to see more success through $BE moving forward versus a basket of neoclouds Same reasoning behind both baskets, but vastly different investor confidence between both
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Yes Brazil fell 20%, but brazil also ran 15% just before, keeping it just -6% for the month and trading at the same prices as it did the last 4 months. EM's are notorious for being illiquid and large ranged. Unless your book is based off a quick trade that you put in on an elections bet, Brazil continues to showcase a strong investment opportunity as it continues to hold up well. Lula or not, Brazil's optimistic approach towards fiscal easing and rate cuts remains a solid trend to bet towards when compared to many global markets out there $EWZ $NU $MELI
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Micron has been the strongest holding memory stock over the past 6 weeks If $DRAM does bottom here, we might see $MU go on one of its strongest leadership moves yet All eyes on the South Korean earnings this week to do their part
“Sell your micron $MU bro it’s the end of memory cycle” 1st time was so nice, we have to do it twice
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If agentic ai really does keep growing faster than expectations as elon says according to Micron, the biggest wave in memory demand is actually yet to come — 30x jump higher than the demand we’ve seen through training and inference so far $MU $DRAM
Replying to @aaronburnett
Agentic demand is growing faster than I’ve ever seen anything grow
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working on my latte art during my free time I present to you: stepped on leaf
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Outside of cybersecurity, since last year summer, the only other tech sector that has gone on a run and STILL holding majority of its gains has been memory Anything semis in between which ran from March-April this year out of the past 14 months has already given up most gains The AI basket was already not so easy to trade since last year, not just as of recently Until the time comes when Micron $MU loses its 30 weekly EMA, there remains no better semis investment than memory
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People ask me why I have a bias towards memory till this day, maybe because it’s been the only bread maker in the market the last 14 months of the semis trade? Lol Mind you, I’ve tried trading couple industries in between as an alternative to memory, and those have done far worse already. So until memory remains strong, it will 100% continue to be the backbone of my semis basket
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in case you’re wondering, the biggest backbones to $QQQ pushing to new highs would be Micron and Nvidia Both set ups lingering just shy of ATHs, and if ignite, that’s the 30w EMA retest that NASDAQ just had today $NVDA $MU
Food for thought into the weekend $QQQ $SPX $DXY
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NASDAQ leading the way today Only one day worth of action, but at a very notable time has $QQQ gone back to taking charge
Food for thought into the weekend $QQQ $SPX $DXY
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Food for thought into the weekend $QQQ $SPX $DXY
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