Son of a man who was far from perfect, but I loved him anyway. Host of CNN's Margins of Error, a podcast about statistical stories. cnn.it/3A8VJAn
I trust no living human, but I do trust the polls.
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Let's start a cute dog thread... Whose got a pup photo they wanna share?
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By my count, the Texas Sen polls are the same as ever. Talarico +3 in the avg every month since the end of July.
He's the 1st Dem TX Sen nominee to be up in the polls this late since 1988. Very different from O'Rourke in 2018 who was down 8 at this pt.
Still a close race tho.
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Don’t know if a poll miss will occur in 2026, but Dems need to win & lead in a bunch of Trump won states.
During the Trump era, tho, the GOP has most frequently outperformed their Senate polls in Trump won states (4.1 pts on avg).
Avg. miss could lead to GOP holding control.
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Re: Ohio gov... Pre-today, Ramaswamy has clearly been losing momentum.
He was up by 4 pts a year ago, but now Acton is up by 4 pts.
Moreover, Ramaswamy's net favorable rating (-25 pts) with independents is the worst of any GOP gov nominee in the 2000s.
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Trump's hitting unprecedented lows heading into a midterm. The competition? Himself.
It seems he owns at least the 4 worst net approval ratings of any pres in the October pre-midterms since 1938. Couldn't find another pres at -31 or worse.
It's a 5 alarm 🚨 Trump-ster Fire 🚨.
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A bright spot for the GOP... In the state (NY) with the most Jewish voters, the GOP has historically strong midterm polling with them.
Hochul's polling 38 pts worse among them than in 2022.
On the House ballot, Dems are doing 36 pts worse.
Mamdani's image is well underwater.
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Polls show this could be the 1st time this century Dems win the statewide House vote in TX due to a big Latino vote swing.
Thus, the TX redistricting may result in no net seat pickup for the GOP!
Bad trend for the GOP in a state that's tops for population growth per @USAFacts
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Should note the GOP is in its best position on party registration (i.e. not polls) going into a midterm in 20+ years.
In total, the Dems have not gained ground since 2024 in key swing states (AZ, NV, NC, or PA).
The GOP has gained big ground since Trump's 1st midterm in all 4.
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Midterm nightmare for the GOP is a Senate cycle like 2006 & 2014 for the Prez's party...
Trump's net approval in the 2026 key Senate states (-21 pts) matches Bush 2006/Obama 2014 in those years key Senate states.
Indies are Trump's problem (down 57 pts from his 2024 baseline).
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Dems have had a lot of very good polls from Iowa, Mich & Ohio.
But are polls underestimating the GOP again? In all 3 states, GOP did better by 5+ pt in 2024 than polls had at this point.
Same thing in Trump's 1st midterm.
Same happens in 2026? GOP probably holds the Senate.
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"Wow!" Trump's net approval rating with 18-29 year-olds is down 40 pts since the 2024 election... Stands at -47 pts now.
Worse? He beat Harris on the economy with under age 30 by 11. Net approval now? -62 pts. 73 pt shift.
Dems now doing 23 pts in race for Congress than 2024.
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For Dem leaders, the call is coming from inside the house. Their own voters despise them.
Dem Cong leadership's net approval with Dems is down 31 pts (to a negative 12 pts) from the last Trump Midterm.
Schumer at -5 pts is the least like Dem Senate leader among Dems on record!
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My friends on the morning show @JohnBerman @KateBolduan @sarasidnerCNN are hosting office hours tonight at 7pm...
Ask anything you want about the midterms or what songs I dance to backstage. Link below!
cnn.com/all-access/series/of…
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Trump continues to break records on inflation (in a bad way).
His -61 pt net approval on inflation in yesterday's MU Law poll is the worst for any president ever in any poll.
Worse than Carter, Reagan or Biden.
He's underwater with Dems (-95), Indies (-74), & GOP (-4)!
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