Is chaos in America a sign of decline or just the normal process of progress? From the archives, George Friedman breaks down the myth of American decline, and how historical cycles can predict the process of US reinvention. piped.video/syiKfOwZX4Q?si=vZRR…

Across the Red Sea, renewed fighting in Yemen has brought Houthi rebels and government forces into battle around the western coast and Bab el-Mandeb. Saudi Arabia is again exchanging strikes with the Houthis, who have seized the strategic island of Perim, bringing the conflict close to the shores of Djibouti. Although the risk of indiscriminate attacks has eased, commercial vessels still face danger when passing through Bab el-Mandeb. There is concern about the potential for the waterway becoming as dangerous as the Strait of Hormuz. For countries whose development depends on reliable access to overseas markets, the threat of disruption is itself a serious problem. - Ronan Wordsworth geopoliticalfutures.com/yeme…

Before the midterm elections, I had several GPF subscribers asking if the Republicans lose control of the House or Senate, whether it will make much difference to the U.S.’s geopolitical actions globally. My field is geopolitics, and this is in a way a political question. However, in my work I have encountered an oddity in the United States, a demonstrable, consistent set of cycles. One is socio-economic, with a crisis occurring every 50 years, with the last one taking place in the 1970s. I also found a consistent cycle of institutional crises every 80 years, with the last one climaxing about 80 years ago, in 1945. I wrote a book on this, “The Next 100 Years,” forecasting that the 2020s would be the first time both cycles shifted at roughly the same time. It would therefore be a more disrupted cycle, with the disruption and restructuring of American society, economy and institutions creating massive tension. That was published in 2009. In a later book, “The Storm Before the Calm,” I forecast that the election of 2028 would signal the beginning of the end of both cycles and a radically new, increasingly stable and significantly different socio-economic and institutional system. Since then I have developed some thoughts on why the United States reinvents itself with such regularity, but I have not fully thought them out yet. In my view politics is the outcome of these cycles and not the cause of them. I think we are nearing the end of the instability that emerged during the first part of the decade, and will stabilize toward the end of the decade, beginning after 2028. So I do not look at the political tension we are experiencing as the cause of the current crisis, but as an outcome of the cyclical crisis. The U.S. has spent this decade reinventing itself, a disruptive and at times unpleasant experience, but one that is nearing its end, that will not be fully in place until nearer the end of the decade. As I have said, I am still working through the foundations of these cycles, but the political unrest is in my mind the product of the cycle and in that sense a clearing of the table in preparation for the beginning of a new and significantly different cycle. The political instability, along with the social, economic and institutional instability, is the effect, not the driver of this cyclical process.

How are the internal forces driving national elections overshadowing Trump's global spotlight? GPF Chairman @George_Friedman joined Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith to discuss this and more on a recent episode: piped.video/P8KhLXk0Gh4

Introducing the Leadership in Geopolitics with George Friedman Executive Education Program The program blends a methodological framework for understanding real-life geopolitical situations with practical leadership tools. Its focus is to enable senior executives to embed a geopolitical mindset into the DNA of their organizations, to design actionable plans and make more informed decisions. Applications now open for February 2027 in Austin, Texas. For more info: bit.ly/4iftHvq

Advanced manufacturing and strong exports in China continue to support growth, placing third-quarter gross domestic product growth at 4.5 percent and growth during the first three quarters at 4.6 percent year on year. Nevertheless, these figures obscure persistent weaknesses, including the continuing contraction of the real estate sector, industrial overcapacity and fragility in the labor market. The growth of the gig economy, in particular, reflects a labor market in which flexible and precarious employment can offer income opportunities without necessarily providing long-term security. These pressures affect ordinary citizens in ways that official measures of economic performance may not fully capture. Xi Jinping’s willingness to acknowledge headwinds and future hardship during the recent Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party thus represents a potentially important change in tone. But without concrete measures to support consumption, improve employment security, address structural imbalances and restore confidence, the language of struggle risks becoming a justification for enduring hardship instead of a prelude to effective reform. - Victoria Herczegh geopoliticalfutures.com/xi-i…

Weekly Graphic: Deadlock Likely After Israel's Election To avoid another vote, one of the principal blocs would need to move its red lines. Although Netanyahu’s Likud remains the largest party with 27 seats, his coalition prospects are constrained by his partners’ opposition to cooperating with Arab parties and the refusal of opposition leaders Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Liberman and Yair Golan to serve under him. geopoliticalfutures.com/week…

GeoEconomic Lens is a deep application of our geopolitical model on economic issues. We created GeoEconomic Lens because of the requests from business and government leaders to apply our forecasting model to the forces that are shaping the global and regional economies. For a limited time, take advantage of our new special offer. You'll have access to each new issue and monthly brief, and full access to our issue archive. You can also use our exclusive Analyst Access feature to ask a question about your industry or region of interest. bit.ly/47R0AIM

The Western Mediterranean was long one of Europe’s most stable external frontiers. There was a time when the region produced powerful centers that projected power into Europe, from Carthage to the Umayyad and Almohad states. In more recent centuries, however, regional states were oriented toward Europe, and no local power could seriously challenge European dominance. That balance is changing. GPF's Ridvan Bari Urcosta has this analysis of Europe's frontiers, Part 2 breaks down why Europe is worried about a new global order. geopoliticalfutures.com/euro…

There are roughly 28,500 U.S. military personnel stationed in South Korea. For the U.S., the appeal of a military presence on the Korean Peninsula is obvious. Preventing China from dominating the Indo-Pacific and restricting U.S. military and commercial access is a major U.S. imperative. U.S. Forces Korea commander Gen. Xavier Brunson has used an “East-Up Map” to emphasize Korea’s value to U.S. regional operations. U.S. bases in South Korea provide a position across the Yellow Sea from China’s northern naval infrastructure. Qingdao, on the Shandong coast, hosts the headquarters of China’s Northern Theater Command Navy. Farther north, the Bohai Strait connects the Yellow Sea to the Bohai Sea, where China’s Huludao shipyard builds nuclear-powered submarines. And to the northeast of Korea lies Vladivostok, which hosts Russia’s Pacific Fleet headquarters and nearby naval facilities, placing the peninsula close to both Chinese and Russian maritime forces. Faced with a variety of challenges, the U.S.-South Korea alliance is likely to make faster progress on maintenance and logistics cooperation than on shifting additional responsibility for peninsula defense to Seoul. Over the next 12 to 24 months, South Korea is likely to expand maintenance and logistics cooperation with the United States through additional repair agreements and support arrangements for regional operations. - Andrew Davidson geopoliticalfutures.com/the-…

The United States and Israel are set to resume airstrikes on Iran after their respective domestic elections, leaving Mecca accord signatories Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to manage the outcome. It was the very thing they wanted to avoid. Full analysis by Kamran Bokhari: geopoliticalfutures.com/mecc…

Talks with Putin: Some European leaders are reopening direct dialogue with the Russian president.

➤ The U.S. and Israel are poised to strike Iran again, and the region’s three main stakeholders are now tasked with containing the fallout. ➤ The bloc’s first joint engagement with Iran brought a top Saudi prince, Pakistan’s military chief and Turkey’s spymaster to Tehran. ➤ At its core, the Mecca Accord brings two major non-Arab powers, Turkey and Pakistan, into efforts to shield the Arab world from Iran and its proxies. ➤ The pact is years from becoming a functioning security bloc, so its members must build the plane while flying it. ➤ Their trap: they need American firepower against Iran but have little say in how Washington uses it. ➤ Israel is another blind spot, since none of the three has meaningful sway over its war plans. ➤ Their hidden card: an increasingly isolated Iran has fewer regional channels for managing the crisis. ➤ If they pull this off, Washington’s burden-sharing strategy gains credibility, and the Iran war could become a catalyst for a more self-reliant regional security order. My latest: geopoliticalfutures.com/mecc…

Ukraine and Russia have agreed to halt combat operations in the city of Oleshky, a Russian-held town, in the Kherson region. Starting today, it will allow food and other humanitarian goods into the town and give residents an opportunity to leave. Ukrainian and Russian civilian officials directly negotiated the details of the agreement. This is not the first such #ceasefire of the war. What makes this one more interesting than the others is that it was said to have been initiated by President Donald Trump’s wife, Melania, who was in direct contact with Russian officials on the matter. My full analysis is available to read and share here at @GPFutures: geopoliticalfutures.com/poss…

The International Monetary Fund’s October 2026 outlook shows a world economy that is holding steady overall but pulling apart underneath. #IMF Details in our new Weekly Graphic: geopoliticalfutures.com/week…

For centuries, European security depended on control not only of the Continent but also of its periphery. The defeat of the Ottomans, Russia’s expansion into Crimea and Poland, and the rise of European colonial empires consolidated that position. Between 1917 and 1945, the Continent entered an era of military and strategic dependence on the trans-Atlantic relationship. Today, Europe retains much of its territory but is losing dominance over its periphery. Europe faces a question once faced by empires of the past: Can a large political entity retain its agency and compel others to recognize it after its dominance has passed? Subscribers sign in for Part 1 of Ridvan Bari Urcosta's analysis of Europe and the new global order: geopoliticalfutures.com/can-…

Recently a subscriber pointed out China's vast refining capacity, and that they use their oil reserves as a tool, drawing them down and waiting things out. They asked if I felt that with the U.S. midterm elections coming up, wouldn't hobbling the Trump administration be in their long-term interest. China has the world’s second largest economy. The World Bank says that 21 percent of China’s gross domestic product comes from exports, and the International Monetary Fund says that 11 percent of those exports go directly to the U.S. (This excludes indirect exports.) If there were a global recession based on the economic crisis triggered by the Iran war and oil prices, China would have a major domestic economic problem. The danger to China of losing up to 21 percent of its income far outweighs any short- or long-term impact it could have on the U.S. midterms.

What makes the current wave of European protests particularly striking is the timing, shared grievances and methodology. To be sure, every European country has its own political traditions, economic structures and institutional challenges. France's political crisis is not Italy's. Spain's housing crisis has different origins than Portugal's. Still, there is an increasingly recognizable pattern: dissatisfaction with public services, rising living costs, insufficient economic opportunities and, perhaps most importantly, the growing difficulty young people experience in becoming economically independent adults. - GPF’s Antonia Colibasanu geopoliticalfutures.com/what…

🌐 The European Parliament approved a resolution calling on the EU to launch a naval operation in the Black Sea amid Russian attacks on commercial vessels there. It condemns the recent strikes allegedly conducted by Russia off the coast of Bulgaria and Romania and calls on EU states, in cooperation with NATO, to support the two countries in the early detection and tracking of hostile drones in the region. The resolution also expresses concern about the Bulgarian government’s “ambiguous handling” of the Russian threat and calls on it to “stop delaying” participation in NATO’s anti-drone initiative. Why it matters: Russia’s actions in the Black Sea are becoming bolder each month. Its goal is to disrupt Ukraine’s maritime trade to provoke an economic collapse. The situation is forcing the EU and NATO to formulate an effective deterrence strategy – which is still unlikely to deter Moscow.

Is the US-Ukraine relationship at a breaking point, or is this just the next page in Trump’s negotiation playbook? Tune in for our latest episode of Talking Geopolitics with George Friedman and Christian Smith. And be sure to like and subscribe to the channel, we truly appreciate your support. piped.video/watch?v=rVlZpBWh…