Observing the real economy. Markets, merchants, money and movement across West Africa. Built from the ground up.
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A note on how to read this account.
GROUND SIGNAL — something we noticed.
MERCHANT SAID — a voice from the market.
FIELD NOTE — context the dataset alone may miss.
UNKNOWN — something we cannot answer yet.
CHANGE DETECTED — reserved for changes we actually observe over time
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UNKNOWN / YABA
Fashion merchants in our sample appear more likely than drinks merchants to accept remote orders.
We can observe the difference.
We cannot yet establish why it exists.
Product characteristics? Customer behaviour? Business scale? Recruitment effects?
The next field visit should distinguish them.
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GROUND SIGNAL / YABA
84 observations reported higher restocking expenditure than three months earlier.
65 of those did not report borrowing money or receiving goods on credit.
Where is the additional expenditure coming from?
The current data cannot tell us.
It gives us a sharper question to take back to the market.
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FIELD NOTE / YABA
In our first 89 observations, 56 reported keeping no sales records.
In the next 25, none selected that response.
Did the market change?
No evidence of that.
We interviewed different businesses.
Sampling and field methods can change the story a dataset appears to tell.
That, too, must be investigated.
We are still observing.
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GROUND SIGNAL / YABA
69 observations recorded bank transfers as the dominant payment method.
32 of those same observations also reported no sales records.
A digital payment leaves a transaction trail.
That does not necessarily mean the merchant has a usable record of the business.
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GROUND SIGNAL / YABA
19 of 22 fashion/textile observations recorded transfers as the dominant payment method.
16 accepted remote orders.
Among 24 drinks/beverage observations, the figures were 8 and 5.
The informal economy does not have one digital adoption pattern.
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FIELD LOG / YABA
We’re approaching 100 first observations across one Lagos market cluster.
One pattern keeps appearing:
The problem facing a business is not always the same as the thing driving its growth.
A few examples. ↓
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A food merchant reports earning enough to hire help.
But power interruptions threaten refrigerated goods.
A business can become stronger financially while remaining vulnerable operationally.
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A merchant starts delivering to homes.
Orders increase, according to the merchant.
But customers owing money for months remain a problem.
More orders do not necessarily mean faster collections…
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FIELD NOTE / YABA
A food merchant said business improving enough to hire help. But electricity interruptions still threaten the stock in the freezer. Growth doesn’t remove operational vulnerability. Sometimes it increases what a business stands to lose when infrastructure fails
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GROUND SIGNAL 009 / YABA
A merchant receives money from a savings contribution.
Uses it to restock.
Customers begin finding more of what they came to buy.
Sales improve, according to the merchant.
Sometimes the problem isn’t a lack of customers.
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We’re building the memory.
These are merchant-reported experiences, not independently verified causes of growth.
We don’t yet know which adjustments will last. That’s why the next visit matters.
A first observation tells us what a business says happened. A second can begin to establish what happened next
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FIELD LOG / YABA
We’re beginning to notice something across the first merchant observations.
When conditions change, businesses don’t always wait for the economy to improve.
They change how they operate.
Five examples from the field. ↓
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NETWORKS
A wholesaler reports gaining customers after joining a traders’ group.
Others want introductions to reliable suppliers, business associations and potential buyers.
Not every growth tool is financial.
Sometimes access to people changes access to opportunity.
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