Bud Davis@JBudDavis

CFB Analytics |馃弳 1st Place - 2021 SIS Data Analytics Challenge

buymeacoffee.com/jbuddavis
Joined June 2020
2,703 Photos and videos
馃搳Recruit Expected Value v3 鈻笍Updated using latest & greatest data & model fit 鈻笍Assuming high-end 3 Star (Rank #300) is "replacement level": - #1 Recruit is worth ~20X - Top 10 Recruits: 8-15X - Other 5 Star: 5-8X - 4 Stars: 1-5X 鈻笍Spend NIL accordingly
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DC is the #6 recruiting metro in the nation One day somebody is going to figure it out
bomani
@bomani_jones
Oct 21
always fascinated by these jobs with lots of local talent that can鈥檛 wait to go somewhere else.
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Alabama Keelon Russell is great. But an 11% Sack Scramble rate with -0.32 EPA/play is going to make it hard for any offense to stay consistent
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Florida Blitzed on a ridiculous 63% of Dropbacks vs Texas. And it worked. Success Rate dropped to 38% on Blitzes comapred to 56% on non-blitzes. EPA/play similar 0.03 to -0.34. Sacks & Scrambles at 13% (at -1.68 EPA/play!)
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馃搳Adv Stats Playcalling Sheets Wk 1-7 UCLA 鈻笍Designed run gods (#2 in EPA/play) 鈻笍RB and Outside Rushing both #1 in FBS 鈻笍Top 20 in Gap run usage; Top 5 in Gap EPA/play 鈻笍Low typical "offense helpers" usage: HU No Huddle, Motion, RPO, and PA below avg Comment requests below
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Cooper and Black look like Sunday players. Mendoza TBD. Interesting.
Bud Davis@JBudDavis
Jan 11
Replying to @JBudDavis
The NFL Draft is going to be a big tell. An old title winning team should have 10-12 guys drafted. Right now Indiana only has 3 projected to go in the first 3 rounds. Comparatively, OSU might have 3 Top 10 picks.
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馃搳Opp-Adj EPA/Play Wk 1-7 鈻笍Demon Deacons Domination (poor Cal) 鈻笍Great showdown between two Big 12 perennial title contenders, Utah & Houston 鈻笍Nebraska is looking right except for the Win column 鈻笍I wouldn't wish the last 12 years of FSU football on my worst rival
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Offense/Defense Rushing & Passing
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Kirby Smart should 100% be on the hot seat.
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Texas, Georgia, and Alabama losing the same weekend appears to be a clear sign from the football gods that a 24 team CFP displeases them
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Really impressed by Jones today. He showed a lot of mental toughness shaking off a few poor early throws, in a hard situation, down multiple scores, on the road, and his first big start
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He did a good job getting the ball out quick and limiting negative plays. Only taking 1 sack vs that DL was surprising and it was certainly not because of the OL.
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Arch Manning has set nepotism back by 100 years
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I'm fairly confident that Texas won't win this game I'm even more certain that the Gators won't win it. CFB is great like that sometimes
Bud Davis@JBudDavis
Oct 16
馃搳Advanced Stats Florida (+9.5) wins vs Texas if ... 鈻笍Gators get the deep passing game going; UT 0.42 EPA/play 鈻笍Harping/Jackson make some big catches 鈻笍Gator DEF Man Coverage gets right (Texas 24% Succ Rt vs Man) 鈻笍Longhorn run game stays mid 鈻笍Florida DBs somehow step up
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馃搳Advanced Stats Florida (+9.5) wins vs Texas if ... 鈻笍Gators get the deep passing game going; UT 0.42 EPA/play 鈻笍Harping/Jackson make some big catches 鈻笍Gator DEF Man Coverage gets right (Texas 24% Succ Rt vs Man) 鈻笍Longhorn run game stays mid 鈻笍Florida DBs somehow step up
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This time six years ago I was processing the actual peak of 3rd and Grantham
Bud Davis@JBudDavis
16 Oct 2020
Todd Grantham let Texas A&M go 12/15 on 3rd Downs last week. At 80% this is the worst allowed conversion rate in the entire career of "Third and Grantham" data courtesy of @CFB_Data
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"Strange memories on this nervous night. 5 years later? 6? Seems like a lifetime... Now you can go up on a steep hill & look West and w/ the right kind of eyes you can see the high-water mark. The place where the 3rd & Grantham finally broke and rolled back."
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6 is the way
Bud Davis@JBudDavis
May 15
The perfect size of the CFP is 6 Every other number is wrong 鈻笍2 byes means regular season perfection is huge 鈻笍5 games in 3 rounds makes all games a must watch and gets it done efficiently 鈻笍6 teams keeps out the bloat of "good not great" teams
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No Florida's defense did not get beat by SCAR because they "went away from the blitz in the 2nd half" Offensive Numbers for SCAR: (1) 2nd Half = higher blitz rate (42% vs 36%) (2) Both Blitz & No-Blitz ineffective in 2nd Half (3) Generally No-Blitz better on the day
Bud Davis@JBudDavis
Oct 14
Blitzing or being aggressive itself isn't an issue. But if you bring 6, and not a single guy wins their rep, you're gonna get eaten alive.

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Rush numbers are similar. Gators really got spanked coming out of the weather delay: Gamecock designed rushes: 1Q: -0.063 EPA/att 2Q: -0.083 3Q: 0.192 4Q: -0.159
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