Vice President of Fertilizer @StoneX_Official, 20+ yrs experience in US/International Fertilizer Markets, All tweets are my own, RT≠Endorsements.
Kansas City, MO
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Josh Linville retweeted
AM #AgriTalk - @HaleyBickelhau2 news. Karen Bohnert @DairyHerd on labor issues. @ChipFlory talks #Fed and #FOMC with Dr. Vince Malanga, LaSalle Economics; energy outlook with @EnergyPhilFlynn; update on fertilizer market from @JLinvilleFert @StoneX_Official. Live at 10:06CT!
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Are you in the cab and thinking "I'm not in a bad enough mood"? Well, you are in luck!
Here is the link to this week's fertilizer video!!!
- Vance announced FIELDS grant recipients
- Corn prices fall a dollar, hurting expected demand
- European costs rising
piped.video/exAyPdgWqhg?si=h_QZ…
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Assuming corn and DAP prices do not change substantially, the ratio between them will set all-time high's for November and December...and it will not be a close 2nd.
Still hard to see phosphate dropping in price substantially.
Hoping corn improves/moves higher.
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Dutch TTF gas values in Europe are now firmly above $30MMbtu which means we need to be VERY watchful for nitrogen fertilizer production plants starting to slow/stop production. Not all of them, but I have to assume some are struggling.
...and it isn't even winter yet...
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Josh Linville retweeted
Fertilizer prices stay high as corn slides, with phosphate the hardest nutrient to justify. @JLinvilleFert explains how Strait of Hormuz disruption is lifting production costs and thinning supply.
Watch the full conversation: bit.ly/4soRFYk
#StoneX #Fertilizer #Phosphate #Urea
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Couldn't agree more.
So then why have none of the products focused on the product most needed to be produced: urea.
Russia is the largest single supplier
Middle East largest region
We can fix this. We have the gas.
Food security IS national security!
Our sovereignty depends on our ability to feed ourselves. We cannot continue relying on foreign nations to supply the fertilizer our farmers need to grow America's food.
Through the FIELDS Program, we're investing in 22 shovel-ready projects across 16 states to bring fertilizer manufacturing back home and strengthen America's agricultural independence. 🇺🇸🌾
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Looking thru all the investments into fertilizer that VP Vance announced yesterday. There are some good ones in there...and some questionable ones.
All said, none of them do much to help the one product that we need more of: urea.
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Josh Linville retweeted
We partnered with @JLinvilleFert, VP of Fertilizer at @StoneX_Official, on The Real Dirt Podcast this morning talking about what's driving the fertilizer market. You're going to want to listen! @JLinvilleFert
bit.ly/4BgTTNP
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Josh Linville retweeted
Tight nitrogen supplies, rising demand and global disruptions to sulfur supplies could keep pressure on #fertilizer markets into spring 2027, even if tensions in the Strait of Hormuz ease, @JLinvilleFert says.
Story from @Tyne_Ag
agweb.com/news/crops/fertili…
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Josh Linville retweeted
What could shape fertilizer markets in 2027?
Join StoneX VP of Fertilizer Josh Linville at The Fertilizer Show on Nov. 18, 9:30–9:55 a.m., for a look at key trends and the developments his team is monitoring.
bit.ly/3UYbOIj
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Here is this week's StoneX Fertilizer video. Hit on a lot of topics:
- Fert/grain ratios getting significantly worse
- Another phosphate plant shuts down short-term
- India falls far short of urea tonnage purchase goal
piped.video/lLGASzA8GrI?si=l55p…
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Josh Linville retweeted
Tight nitrogen supplies, rising demand and global disruptions to sulfur supplies are keeping pressure on fertilizer markets, even if tensions in the Strait of Hormuz ease, says @JLinvilleFert
profarmer.com/news/agricultu…
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Just saw that U.S. farmers are getting $8 billion to offset the high cost of diesel.
The fertilizer market right now:
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Corn is down again today. How do the fertilizer ratios look?
Urea - highest/worst 25% of week's going back to 2021
UAN - highest 19%
DAP - highest 7%
Potash - lowest 40%
NH3 on 1st comment below.
Diesel - bad
Fertilizer - bad
Grain - bad
Farmer economics - bad
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Phosphate values remain flat while corn/grain values continue to take a beating.
How bad is the relationship at the start of fall application?
With a current ratio of 172 bushels of corn per 1-ton of DAP, only 7% of the weeks going back to 2020 have been as high or higher...
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I'll have my video out tomorrow but here is the link my friend Tomas's video from a Brazilian POV. Given their importance on the global fertilizer scale, this POV should matter to you.
piped.video/watch?v=nTa9rxeK…
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With UAN rising/corn falling, the current ratio sits at 82 bushels of corn per 1-ton of UAN.
That puts it in the highest 20% of recent years.
Unfortunately, multiple production plants are heard sold into 2027 so little reason to drop prices/plenty of reasons to boost them...
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