Maritime Security | South China Sea

Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo
I had the opportunity to host a conversation with Secretary of National Defense @Gilbert_TeodoJR during the National West Philippine Sea Summit, focusing on regional maritime security, Philippine defense, and the enduring relevance of the 2016 South China Sea Arbitral Award. One point from Secretary Teodoro’s keynote address particularly resonated: in a democracy, national security ultimately requires the confidence and support of the electorate. That makes public understanding of the West Philippine Sea a strategic imperative. My sincere thanks to Secretary @giboteodoro for sharing his insights, and to our colleagues from academia, government, the private sector and civil society who joined us for a thoughtful and engaging discussion!
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Who is the real troublemaker in the West Philippine Sea?
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Telling the truth about China’s illegal, coercive, agressive, and deceptive (ICAD) actions is not smearing! What the Chinese Foreign Minister is really asking is for us to stay silent about China's bullying, aggressive actions, and unlawful activities, and to pretend that all is well. Beijing would opt the Filipino people not know, and the world not see, how openly it challenges the rules-based international order.
China tells Philippines to stop politicians crossing 'red lines' abs-cbn.com/news/world/2026/…
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Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. on Wednesday reiterated his opposition to joint oil and gas exploration with China in the West Philippine Sea, saying Beijing has no valid claim over the area and that there is no legal basis for such an arrangement. He also made a joking remark about the possibility of Chinese investments bringing Philippine Offshore Gaming Operator (POGO) operations to the West Philippine Sea. “Nakita naman natin ‘yung klase ng mga investments nila dito. Baka magkaroon ng POGO diyan sa West Philippine Sea,” Teodoro joked. @ABSCBNNews
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Th same Wang Yi who lied to the world about Mischief Reef 👇🏼
Wang Yi, a Chinese diplomat, is urging the Philippines to rein in politicians who have repeatedly "smeared" and crossed Beijing's "red lines."
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Misleading headline. Xi Jinping is not “skipping” the ASEAN and East Asia Summits. He has NEVER attended them. Not once. China has always been represented by its No. 2 official, the premier.
Chinese President Xi Jinping is skipping the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit hosted by the Philippines this month, according to highly placed diplomatic sources. tinyurl.com/4zczpcvz | via @onenewsph
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A normal day of coastal states in the SCS asserting their legitimate EEZ sovereign rights, including entry into joint ventures with foreign energy majors. Everyone should continue to do just that, without being subjected to coercion by anybody. petronas.com/media/media-rel…
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@CSIS_AMTI reports: China's coast guard holds a ~30 nautical mile ring around Scarborough Shoal, inside the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. The U.S. doesn't impose nine-dash lines on anyone. Beijing's sweeping maritime and territorial claims have no basis in international law. We stand with our Ally, the Philippines. The United States has long worked around the globe to uphold freedom of navigation. This is what pressure looks like: Chinese coast guard ships circling Scarborough Shoal again and again, maritime militia massed at its center – all inside the Philippines’ EEZ.
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#Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz: “The #UnitedNations’ prohibition of violence also applies to the #Taiwan Strait.” I would like to thank @bundeskanzler for these crucial words, which speak volumes.
Clash Report
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MEET THE INAUGURAL COHORT OF THE MANILA DIALOGUE YOUNG LEADERS PROGRAM!🌏 🌏 Selected from 260 applicants from around the world, 28 emerging leaders will converge in Manila for a series of engagements designed to foster dialogue, collaboration, and a deeper understanding of maritime security challenges in the Indo-Pacific. Their activities will include: 🔹 Maritime Crisis Tabletop Exercise – Simulating a maritime crisis to explore decision-making, crisis management, and regional cooperation. 🔹 Policy Roundtables – Engaging with policymakers, practitioners, and experts on maritime security, international law, and regional challenges. 🔹 The Manila Dialogue on the South China Sea – Participating in one of the region's major Track 1.5 maritime security conferences, alongside senior government officials, diplomats, and leading experts. 📍 Manila, Philippines 📅 15–18 November 2026 1/8
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The Manila Dialogue on the South China Sea, this year, will include a Young Leaders Program, featuring 28 emerging maritime security leaders, scholars, and experts from around the world. Get to know them 👇🏼🧵
MEET THE INAUGURAL COHORT OF THE MANILA DIALOGUE YOUNG LEADERS PROGRAM!🌏 🌏 Selected from 260 applicants from around the world, 28 emerging leaders will converge in Manila for a series of engagements designed to foster dialogue, collaboration, and a deeper understanding of maritime security challenges in the Indo-Pacific. Their activities will include: 🔹 Maritime Crisis Tabletop Exercise – Simulating a maritime crisis to explore decision-making, crisis management, and regional cooperation. 🔹 Policy Roundtables – Engaging with policymakers, practitioners, and experts on maritime security, international law, and regional challenges. 🔹 The Manila Dialogue on the South China Sea – Participating in one of the region's major Track 1.5 maritime security conferences, alongside senior government officials, diplomats, and leading experts. 📍 Manila, Philippines 📅 15–18 November 2026 1/8
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Clear examples of coordinated activities between Chinese research vessels, Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia.
On October 18, we detected 16 Chinese vessels around #Taiwan, including 6 #CCG, 6 survey vessels, & 4 believed to be #maritimemilitia vessels. These activities represented a clear pattern of expansionism & provocation across the wider #IndoPacific.
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興味深いことに、日韓台比豪の国防予算を対GDP比3.5%に引き上げると、中国の国防費とおおよそ同等となる。軍事費の均衡は1つの指標に過ぎないが、3.5%という目安にまるで根拠がないわけではない、とは言えそうだ。
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Oh, that clarifies things.
“We may easily win,” but China says it chooses peace. Chinese amb Jing Quan rejects “troublemaker” tag: “We should feel fortunate enough that you have a neighbor like China in this region. If we want to use force, we may easily win. But no, we’ll not use force. We love peace.”
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How can Europe help the Philippines in the South China Sea? First, we should stop denying that China is a threat to Europe's interests and values. Second, stop turning a blind eye to China's aggression in the South China Sea. When international law is ignored at sea, the precedent will not stay in Asia.
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Neither the AFP nor PCG asked for permission from China to conduct medical evacuation of the Philippine Navy personnel from the BRP Sierra Madre.
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China's statement confirms every fact the PCG reported. It admits that a Chinese research vessel was operating near Hubo Reef, Escoda Shoal, and Katimugan Bank, with PLA Navy and China Coast Guard vessels nearby. The only dispute is over who has the right to be there, and international law has already settled that. On Point I: "Nansha Qundao" and "sovereign rights over the relevant waters" 1. China cannot enclose the Spratlys as a single unit. The 2016 Arbitral Award rejected archipelagic or straight baselines around them as a whole (Award, paras. 573–576), and ruled that none of their high-tide features generates an EEZ or continental shelf (Award, paras. 625–626). 2. Hubo Reef, Escoda Shoal, and Katimugan Bank are not territory. Low-tide elevations cannot be appropriated and do not form part of any State's land territory (Award, para. 309), and fully submerged features cannot generate maritime entitlements (Award, para. 693). With no Spratly feature generating an EEZ (Award, para. 626), these waters fall within the Philippine EEZ and continental shelf. 3. China's claimed "sovereign rights and jurisdiction" rests on the same nine-dash-line claim the Tribunal ruled to be contrary to UNCLOS and without lawful effect to the extent it exceeds China's entitlements under the Convention (Award, paras. 278 and 1203.B(2)). 4. Chinese domestic law does not reach into another state's EEZ. A state cannot invoke its internal law to escape a treaty obligation (VCLT Art. 27), and China ratified UNCLOS in 1996. 5. Warships positioned around a research vessel are not "routine patrols." They are escorts. Lawful research does not need naval protection. On Point II: "The PCG interfered with normal operations" 1. Marine scientific research in the EEZ requires coastal state consent (UNCLOS Art. 246(2)). The researching state must notify six months in advance (Art. 248), and the coastal state may stop research done without consent (Art. 253). 2. The DFA confirmed that China made no request for consent. The vessel declared diving operations, went dark on AIS, and ignored repeated PCG radio challenges. 3. The Philippine position is not unilateral. It rests on UNCLOS and on an award that "shall be complied with by the parties to the dispute" (UNCLOS Art. 296; Annex VII, Art. 11; Award, para. 1200). On Point III: "Public goods" and "persecution delusion" 1. UNCLOS says coastal states shall normally grant consent for peaceful research (Art. 246(3)). If the research is aboveboard, China should simply file the request. 2. TAN SUO YI HAO is the mothership for China's deep-sea submersibles. Seabed data has resource and military value, which is why UNCLOS gives the coastal state control over it. Data taken without consent is not a gift to the Philippines. 3. A delusion does not appear on AIS, in Dark Vessel Detection, or in aerial photographs. China's statement did not dispute a single coordinate the PCG published. 4. Name-calling is what a government resorts to when it cannot answer the facts.
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Congratulations to the 2026 Cohort of the South China Sea Studies Symposium! This year, its inaugural cohort brings together 19 scholars and researchers selected from 338 submissions representing 46 countries. We look forward to seeing the cohort in Manila on November 15! 👋
[ANNOUNCING: 2026 COHORT | SCS STUDIES SYMPOSIUM] To provide stronger intellectual grounding for the policy discussions at The Manila Dialogue on the South China Sea, and to help bridge the gap between academic research and policymaking, the South China Sea Studies Symposium was launched as the academic component of the Dialogue. This year, its inaugural cohort brings together 19 scholars and researchers selected from 338 submissions representing 46 countries. Their research covers a wide range of issues shaping the South China Sea: maritime coercion and gray-zone activities, international law, economic security, subsea cables and critical infrastructure, information operations, minilateral cooperation, and the roles of regional and extra-regional actors. On November 15, 2026, members of the inaugural cohort will present their draft papers and receive feedback from fellow scholars and experts before developing them into final papers for publication. South China Sea Studies Symposium 📅 November 15, 2026 ⏰ 8:30 AM–4:30 PM 📍 Gallio Events Hall, next to Hyatt Regency City of Dreams Manila It is also an opportunity to bring established and emerging scholars working on the South China Sea into the same conversation, encourage new research on the region, and create a stronger connection between scholarship and the policy community. The South China Sea Studies Symposium is made possible with the generous support of Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) Philippines. Congratulations to the inaugural cohort, and see you in Manila on November 15!
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🤝 [Partnership] @kasphilippines × @wps_ph Last June, KAS Philippines, led by Country Director Daniela Braun, and the WPS Foundation, led by its President and CEO Dr. Jeffrey Ordaniel, formalized their partnership through the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding. 🇩🇪🇵🇭 🌊 Building on their shared commitment to advance a free, open, rules-based, and stable maritime order in the region, KAS Philippines and the WPS Foundation are co-convening The Manila Dialogue on the South China Sea this November. 🎓 As a pre-event to the Dialogue, the two organizations are also launching the inaugural South China Sea Studies Symposium, which will bring together senior scholars and emerging academics from around the world working on South China Sea-related topics to provide stronger intellectual grounding for the policy discussions at the #MNLDialogue. 🔗 The partnership reflects a shared determination to bridge academia and policy vis-à-vis the South China Sea and the broader maritime Asia. ⚓ Watch this space as the KAS–WPS collaboration continues to produce meaningful initiatives that promote the rule of law at sea!
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