“Experts” said the end of the EV tax credit was the death of Tesla.
2026 Q3 earnings call - demand for Teslas is higher than production!
The only thing killed with the end of the tax credit, was shitty EV’s built by legacy auto.
In July 2024, while legacy media insisted Elon Musk was hurting his own company by backing candidates who wanted to kill the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, he told everyone exactly what would happen:
"Take away the subsidies. It will only help Tesla. Also, remove subsidies from all industries!"
A week later, on Tesla's earnings call, he went further: "It would be devastating for our competitors, and it would hurt Tesla slightly but long term probably actually helps Tesla."
My view: the credit was propping up EVs that couldn't win on their own merits. It even paid people to buy gas cars with a small battery attached. Take away the $7,500 and you find out who built a real product.
The credit ended September 30, 2025. Here's what followed:
- US EV sales fell 36% year over year in Q4 2025 (Cox Automotive / Kelley Blue Book).
- Ford took a $19.5 billion writedown and killed EV programs, including the all-electric F-150 Lightning, its next-generation electric truck and planned electric vans.
- GM took a $1.6B charge, then another $6B, cut a shift on the Cadillac Lyriq/Vistiq line at Spring Hill and indefinitely delayed a second shift at Fairfax.
- Stellantis shifted production back toward gas vehicles.
Tesla? It didn't halt a single line. Its share of US EV sales rose to 58.9% in Q4 2025, up from 46.2% for the full year. In Q3 2026 it produced 464,391 vehicles (up 4% year over year) and delivered 486,532, beating analyst estimates of about 461,000.
Elon Musk called it in public, in writing, more than a year early. Legacy automakers needed the subsidy. Tesla didn't.