ASML JUST SAID THE AI CHIP SHORTAGE LASTS UNTIL AT LEAST 2028 😳
Every answer from ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini runs on chips that need one company's machines.
That company is ASML, the only one on earth that makes EUV machines.
Without them there are no Nvidia GPUs, no Google TPUs and no HBM memory.
In July they planned +30% more machines for 2027, from about 65 a year to about 85.
On Oct 14 CEO Christophe Fouquet said:
"our supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers"
Customers already want to place orders for 2029 and 2030.
TSMC, one day later: "the gap between demand and supply are still quite big"
Micron: HBM for 2027 is largely sold out, at much higher prices.
My take:
A new machine takes 1–2 years to turn into chips, so the extra capacity really lands in 2028–29.
For ChatGPT and Claude users, don't expect rate limits or prices to get much better in 2027.
For OpenAI, Anthropic and Google, whoever locked in chips early keeps the lead.
Smarter models will come from better training, not just more chips.
But anyone hoping for cheap, unlimited compute in 2027 can forget it.