Head of Macro Research and Strategy, Schwab Center for Financial Research Disclosures: aboutschwab.com/social-media
New York, NY
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Forward 12m profit margins for oil and gas refining stocks have risen (read: spiked) to an all-time high
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2026 so far shaping up to be a bit of an outlier when it comes to how much forward EPS are up (+32.2%) and how well the index is doing (+12.7%)
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The equal-weighted S&P 500 Energy sector is up by 49.9% YTD and is working on its sixth consecutive year of positive performance
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No rebound yet for new job postings from @indeed ... labor demand still sluggish per this metric
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ADP average weekly private payroll growth thru the beginning of October pulled back to +18.5k
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A sharp decline for housing starts … not only did they fall by -5.2% in September, but August’s decline was revised from -2.6% to -5.9%. That brings the level close to a new cycle low
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Correlation between the equal- and cap-weighted S&P 500 indexes (on a rolling 12m basis) has fallen to a new all-time low
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As home builder sentiment continues to fall near its lowest since the pandemic low, the same goes for homebuilder stocks vs. the S&P 500.
(past performance is no guarantee of future results)
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Kevin Gordon retweeted
Oil traders are increasingly pricing the battle over the Strait of Hormuz as the new normal. Futures contracts for brent crude in December 2027 are now close to $90 a barrel, the highest ever and a sharp departure from even a month ago.
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“Silicon Valley operates on the premise that compute demand is unlimited, yet the recent slowdown in token spending growth suggests that this appetite may exist only when compute is effectively free…”
-@apolloglobal’s Torsten Slok
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“At the start of this year, analysts estimated that the five hyperscalers alone — Alphabet, Amazon Inc., Meta Platforms Inc., Microsoft and Oracle Corp. — would spend $630 billion on new data centers in 2027. That forecast has now almost doubled to $1.1 trillion.”
@business
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“For the fiscal year through September, the deficit widened to $1.99 trillion, Treasury Department figures showed on Friday. That marks about a 12% increase on the $1.78 trillion gap recorded for last year.”
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Bloomberg’s Fedspeak natural language model keeps getting more hawkish … now back to where it was in March 2023
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Over the past month:
Equal-weighted S&P 500 +1%
Philly Semiconductor Index -1.2%
(Past performance is no guarantee of future results)
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