Above-Average Returns: Why The Next Decade Differs In today's discussion, we examine why returns have been so stellar over the last decade, and why future returns are likely to be lower due to the lack of liquidity that supported the bull market. lanceroberts.substack.com/p/…

11-4-26 Political Gridlock Could Be The BEST Thing For The Stock Market Could a Republican president facing a Democratic-controlled Congress actually be bullish for stocks? History suggests that political gridlock may be far better for the market than many investors expect. But there's a catch: even historically bullish periods can come with significant volatility and painful drawdowns. In this Short video, I examine seven historical instances when a Republican president governed alongside a Democratic-controlled Congress. In all seven cases, stocks delivered positive returns over the following three months, with an average gain of approximately 10.7%. Under Eisenhower, the market gained 15.2% in one instance and 6.8% in another. Nixon saw a 14.7% advance, Ford 5.1%, Reagan 13.6%, George H. W. Bush 14.9%, and George W. Bush 4.9%. The 12-month picture is equally compelling. Across those seven historical periods, the average annual return was approximately 15.5%, according to Lance's research. Every single period produced a positive return, ranging from just 1% under Reagan to an impressive 33% under Eisenhower. So why might political gridlock be good for stocks? Divided government can make it harder to pass sweeping legislation or implement major policy changes, potentially reducing uncertainty for businesses and investors. However, strong historical returns don't necessarily mean a smooth ride higher. Some of these periods experienced drawdowns of 9% to 14%. Under Reagan, the market suffered a staggering 33% decline before recovering and ultimately finishing the 12-month period with a modest 1% gain. And there are plenty of risks ahead. With Democrats controlling Congress, potential impeachment proceedings, congressional investigations into AI and Big Tech, new regulatory requirements, and political battles over Trump's Federal Reserve nominees could all introduce uncertainty and weigh on markets. That's why I am cautious against reading too much into the immediate post-election reaction. Whether stocks open higher, sell off, or stage a dramatic intraday reversal, nobody really knows how the political landscape will unfold over the coming months. So, history favors a post-election rally, but investors shouldn't confuse favorable historical probabilities with guaranteed gains. Significant corrections can occur even during bullish periods. Rather than trying to predict every political development or reacting emotionally to election headlines, let the market tell you what to do instead of guessing. Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors.

Does AMD's boost mark the beginning of a sustained growth stock rally, or just another bounce in a struggling market? Here's my latest Before the Bell Report:

11-4-26 Election Over: What's Next for Stocks? nitter.siddz.com/i/broadcasts/2XyJoMNyV…

In a completely unexplained phenomenon, time-off requests from work are piling up for November 19th. If someone could only figure out what is causing it. 🤣🤣🤣

The S&P 500 is at extremely oversold levels even as nearly half of its constituents are overbought, highlighting an extraordinary divergence between the index and its underlying stocks. This is the value/growth rotation at work, and a reversal is becoming more likely. @thedailyshot @bespokeinvest

The share of S&P 500 constituents that have outperformed the index over the trailing month has risen from 17% to 74% in just a few weeks. As we discussed when the breadth reading was below 20%, this tends to be a #contrarian indicator at extremes.

I posted a similar chart in our Daily Market Commentary recently, but with the midterm elections behind us, the market's seasonally strong period begins. @ISABELNET_SA @CarsonResearch

Daily Market Trading Update: November 4, 2026 lanceroberts.substack.com/p/…

RT @LanceRoberts: 11-2-26 The BIG Rotation Is Coming: Your Guide To Buying Growth Stocks Is the market setting up for another major rotati…

11-3-26 Midterm Elections: Wall St Is Preparing For The WORST — But History Says BUY? Hedge funds are selling stocks aggressively ahead of the midterm elections, particularly technology, AI, and growth names. Their equity allocations have reportedly fallen to the 10th percentile of historical levels, reflecting extreme defensive positioning. But here's the interesting part: that could actually be a powerful CONTRARIAN BUY SIGNAL. Historically, markets tend to experience a roughly 10% correction heading into midterm elections. While the broader market hasn't experienced a full 10% decline, the Nasdaq $QQQ and technology stocks $XLK have already gone through that correction. Much of the selling reflects uncertainty about the election outcome and its potential implications for economic policy. The real opportunity may emerge AFTER the elections. Hedge funds have reduced their technology exposure so dramatically that they're now significantly underweight the sector. If growth stocks begin recovering, these institutions will eventually need to rebuild their positions, or "regross" their books. With billions of dollars available to allocate, that could create substantial buying pressure and fuel a powerful rally in technology stocks. This is why extreme positioning matters. When hedge funds first begin degrossing, it's a warning signal. Accelerating selling suggests investors should consider reducing risk. During the middle of that process, the selling confirms the prevailing downtrend. But when positioning reaches historical extremes, the same indicator becomes contrarian. The same principle applies to market breadth and money flow. Extremely weak breadth can indicate excessive pessimism and selling exhaustion, while exceptionally strong breadth can signal excessive optimism. At extremes, indicators often become more useful for anticipating reversals than confirming existing trends. And then there's the election itself. Investors often prefer political gridlock because a divided government makes major policy changes more difficult. More importantly, history shows that stocks have generally performed positively following midterm elections as political uncertainty fades. Does that mean investors should immediately go all-in? Absolutely not. The better approach may be to trim some profitable positions, raise a little extra cash, and maintain flexibility. If markets weaken further as investors digest the election results, that cash could provide an opportunity to buy quality stocks at more attractive prices. The bottom line: Wall Street is positioned for the worst, but extreme hedge fund selling, an already-corrected Nasdaq, and historically favorable post-midterm seasonality could create the conditions for a significant rally. The key is watching for renewed strength in growth and technology stocks. Once that rotation begins, hedge fund buying could become the fuel that drives the next major move higher. Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors.

Could an emerging rotation from value stocks back into growth and technology signal the next buying opportunity? Here's my latest Before the Bell Report:

11-3-26 Election Jitters & Retirement Risks nitter.siddz.com/i/broadcasts/2OdmzEjRg…

Since 1979, inflation-adjusted wages for women aged 25 and older have risen 40%, compared with just 6% for men. Women have gained across all education levels, while men without college degrees have experienced wage declines. h/t @BoringBiz_

I realize there is lots of "angst" about the midterm election today, which will probably lead to volatility today and tomorrow. However, the market has been higher in both the 6- and 12-month periods following elections 100% of the time.

We are now entering the 6-month period where stocks tend to post their strongest gains (on average).