I posted the materials for my second-year PhD course, broadly on "Identification in Macroeconomics" -- basically a back-and-forth between structural models and data, both time-series and cross-sectional, with a focus on business-cycle questions.

New at JIE: "Expert inflation preferences and the evaluation of monetary policy" by Timo Wochner (@TimoWochner), Lukas Hack (@LukasHack_) and Niklas Potrafke (@ifo_Institut) doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.20…

We are hiring! The University of St Gallen invites applications for a tenure-track Assistant Professor position in macroeconomics (unisg.ch/de/forschung/offene…). Candidates working on applied topics and with a few years of post-doc experience are particularly encouraged to apply. 1/2

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Update to this thread from the NBER SI: our paper is now out as CEPR DP21913. And it has grown: the paper now combines a method, a measurement, and a “new” model of household debt. ralphluetticke.com/files/BBL…

🚨 I just started a new job as assistant professor at @uni_tue joining a great macro group with Gernot Müller and @RalphLuet. I am very grateful to everyone who made this possible! Watch out for many great macro papers coming from the southwest of Germany in the future!

What’s the optimal inflation rate? We know surprisingly little. Structural models provide a relatively wide range of estimates, with various channels playing a role. We asked econ. experts, who may be able to aggregate various channels and model predictions into a final number

Today @nberpubs there is great stuff on the solution of HANK models by @GregWKaplan @JavierBianchi7 and @a_auclert @ludwigstraub Rognlie Rigato in the session of @ChristianKWolf @JesusFerna7026 @luigi_bocola. This is exactly one of the questions of my ERC project: how far can we push perturbation HANK? So let me share some thoughts and a simple new method that is as fast as a linear solution, but almost as accurate as the fully nonlinear transition. Paper: ralphluetticke.com/files/Loc… Code: github.com/mweiss-econ/large…

🚨 PhD position in Public Finance 🚨 I'm looking for a PhD student to work with me at @KOFETH_en/@ETH on international taxation: profit shifting, labor market effects of tax competition, and the political economy of international tax rules. Deadline: 30 Sep 2026 ⬇️

Slides for a new paper are now on my site (and below). "Shockingly simple monetary shocks". Joint work with Mu-Chun Wang. Abstract: We identify monetary policy shocks by imposing that they produce a positive, monotonically declining path for nominal rates. We impose no restrictions on other variables, nor do we rely on external information. Nonetheless, this produces IRFs closely resembling those produced using high frequency instruments, with no price puzzle. We justify these restrictions by showing both that they are satisfied in a benchmark medium-scale DSGE model, and by showing that they are satisfied under optimal policy in simple models. Our shocks produce a large, immediate drop in the price level. Thus, the rapid response of prices to monetary shocks observed in recent studies is not an artefact of high frequency identification.

Thanks for sharing our poster on how systematic monetary policy shapes the consequences of tariffs!

Now that I have your attention : ) Gernot Müller and I are looking for a Ph.D. student to work on "Heterogeneous Expectations in HANK Models: Empirical Evidence, New Solution Methods, and Macroeconomic Implications.” For details check the Link. Deadline is July 31, 2026. ralphluetticke.com/files/PhD…

📢 New paper w/ @GregWKaplan 🧵1/10 How small is “small” for local-linear methods to deliver reliable answers in heterogeneous-agent models of fiscal stimulus? Our answer: very small.

It's a wrap! Very proud to have hosted a fantastic workshop on new methods & models in macro. Two days, ten terrific talks, many lively debates on new models, computation, AI, rational expectation & RL, state/sequence/path space, and beyond. A thread on the talks & frontier🧵

Very much looking forward to the 𝐙𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐩 next week! Excited to welcome an outstanding group of macroeconomists pushing the very frontier: Tom Sargent, @ben_moll, @a_auclert, @MarlonAzinovic, and many others! @Florian_Scheuer @comp_simon

We show in a #new #paper how to estimate the misallocation #costs associated with different #inflation #rates directly from micro price data. 👉Cool feature: it works without having to commit to specific pricing models & with lots of (unobserved) product heterogeneity! 🧵(1/N)

🛃 Call of customs duty 🛃 I am very happy to see this policy brief online! We show that US import tariff increases are supply shocks that pose a substantial tradeoff for monetary policy! Based on joint work with Alessandro Franconi!

CEPR Monetary Economics and Fluctuations program meeting. Members and non-members alike are welcome to submit relevant work. mailchi.mp/cepr/cfp-cepr-ann…