Associate Professor of Political Science @VCU. Senior Fellow @CIPolicy. Assoc Fellow @IPS_DC. Fmr LatAm advisor @BernieSanders. 교포 mpaarlberg.bsky.social
RVA & DC
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Despite Trump's professed willingness to put boots on the ground in Venezuela, he doesn't want an open-ended occupation required for an Iraq-style de-Baathification (de-chavistication?) of the Vz government. Thus the FANB has veto power in any future transition, I tell @BBCNews
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73% of your campaign donations go to consultants and vendors; only 13% goes toward ads. This is 4x the cut consultants made 20 years ago. Important work by @JakeMGrumbach and Adam Bonica on the capture of the Democratic Party by consultants.
newrepublic.com/article/2163…
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This is correct, although without a veto-proof supermajority, Democrats won't be able to do anything through legislation. The impact will be through hearings and demands for accountability for lawbreaking and corruption like the boat strikes, CECOT renditions, and DOJ MS-13 deal.
The opposition to @nayibbukele and civil society organizations in El Salvador may well end up being disappointed again, if they put too much hope on a Democratic Congress.
Why?
Under @JoeBiden, a stronger stance in defense of human rights and the rule of law was hoped for, but his administration ended up aiding and abetting Bukele’s consolidation of power and the closing of civic space in El Salvador.
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Blatantly illegal
SCOOP: The State Dept has started asking career diplomats up for promotion if they voted for Trump in 16, 20, 24.
Federal law prohibits politically based hiring for career staff.
State tells @washingtonsun it's screening for "fidelity" and execution of the president's vision👇
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We were told this was all about drug traffickers in boats
NEW: Trump’s mega Venezuelan oil deal, signed by Hegseth and Rubio, benefits an unknown group of investors and was intentionally crafted to keep the next U.S. president or future leaders of Venezuela from undoing it. @propublica saw the secret contract: propublica.org/article/trump…
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Veja o Flávio se envolvendo com a ideologia de gênero
Due to a lack of female supporters, Brazilian presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro has resorted to using AI to transform middle-aged men into attractive young women.
This AI-generated creation has been dubbed the "Bolsonaro Bombshell."
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Michael Paarlberg retweeted
The very-normal state of right-wing politics in Latin America:
Yes that's a Chinese electric car
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In Brazil, there is evidence that Meta suppressed pro-Lula accounts in favor of Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of next week's election. Underscoring why regulating tech companies over political interference is in the mutual democratic interests of the US and other countries.
Larry Ellison’s TikTok has shut down the promotional account for Alex Gibney’s Elon Musk documentary. theverge.com/tech/1013453/ti…
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What’s happening in Venezuela is basically Odebrecht 2, except instead of one big construction company doing bribery and procurement fraud, it’s a hundred little MAGA grifters who hung out at Mar-a-Lago and the Kennedy Center
The feud between Trump’s close allies is part of a long-running battle among the MAGA crowd for a share of the spoils in Venezuela, whose resource riches are now effectively under American control.
nytimes.com/2026/10/15/us/po… with @tylerpager
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Michael Paarlberg retweeted
ALT Call it a vibes-based election. But these vibes come from institutions: media conglomerates, mega-churches, Silicon Valley, Trump, none of whom are friendly to Lula.
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Oops looks like half of all the people I arrested for being gangster terrorists and threw in torture dungeons without trial were wrongfully accused. My bad.
🔴 El presidente Nayib Bukele aseguró que su Gobierno está evaluando otorgar liberación condicional anticipada a “más o menos el 50 %” de la población carcelaria que está acusada de colaborar con las pandillas en El Salvador.
La declaración fue hecha durante una conferencia de prensa realizada ayer, tras ser cuestionado por las ventilaciones hechas por su hermano, Ibrajim Bukele, sobre la supuesta existencia de un equipo “independiente” con potestad para liberar personas capturadas durante el régimen de excepción.
beta.elfaro.net/el-salvador/…
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Michael Paarlberg retweeted
@realDonaldTrump’s “Shield of the Americas” is built on quicksand. @LAPOP_Lab 2026: 8 of 11 presidents members of the “Shield” are under water. And trust in the US govt is lowest since 2012 (even in US “closest” allies). [NB: recent data shows Fujimori already under water too].
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Michael Paarlberg retweeted
Why did Lula do so poorly in Brazil’s election — and what does it mean for the global contest between right and left?
New episode of @OrderFromAshes with @MPaarlberg Nara Roberta Silva
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I discuss Brazil’s vibes-based election and lessons for US progressives with @perrybaconjr for @newrepublic: newrepublic.substack.com/p/w…
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Latin America right now has two Palestinian presidents who are right wing and pro-Israel, Asfura 🇭🇳 and Bukele 🇸🇻
How Israel Conquered the Latin American Right
From Bukele to Bolsonaro, the region’s conservatives have learned to love Zionism.
theamericanconservative.com/…
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Central America’s Palestinian diaspora community is more conservative and less nationalist than the larger Palestinian community in Chile, as I write in this chapter in this edited volume drive.google.com/file/d/1EX6…
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While doing interviews in Mississippi, I was told that the surest path to elected office was to own a car dealership, or a funeral home. Because eventually, everyone in your district buys a car, or a funeral. There was a group of MS state reps that people called The Undertakers.
1/ The richest cohort of Americans isn't tech bros. It's car dealers, garage door companies, and beverage distributors. A thread.
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It’s kind of funny that political scientists need to be reminded that actually describing how politics works is a useful endeavor, but here we are
Real banger here. We often treat descriptive analysis as a petty chore you need go through to get to the real (causal) stuff. Gerring argues that not only is good description crucial, it’s arguably the greater challenge. Deciding how to characterize things appropriately can be more consequential and difficult than establishing that X is related to Y in a particular way. cambridge.org/core/journals/…
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One of the downsides of being a crime scholar is that this is the kind of image you get when you google your name
piped.video/watch?v=pMQUFc…
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