Updating the post below, since it was popular with readers. The ability to use BTC as collateral continues to grow. This is important for any asset and it should be watched, because it increases utility and inherent value. Coinbase recently added to its “borrow” product that lets customers borrow cash using their BTC as collateral. There are now three options. See the screenshot below (taken today). Recap: You deposit BTC as collateral and get USDC, which is immediately convertible to USD, then a quick transfer to your linked bank account. Attractive rates. You can choose to repay the loan whenever you want, at which point you get your BTC back (so you retain any future price appreciation). That’s a very attractive option for various types of borrowers ranging from individuals to small businesses. I’ve been surprised by how many people -- even veterans of the BTC space -- don’t seem to be aware of how easy this process has become, or that it even exists. But make no mistake: This is huge financial innovation. And Coinbase definitely isn’t alone -- other companies also offer this product. Keep watching as BTC collateral usage grows. Over the long term, it’s important.

Happening next month. I’ve gotten lots of private messages asking for recommendations. Feel free to send me one.

Know a guy who managed a couple of top desks on Wall Street for many years. He’s always had a casual interest in BTC and has never seen it as anything more than an inflation hedge. A few weeks ago, he asked me about it in the context of AI. Always watch these types of emerging investment frameworks as they start to get traction. (@jvisserlabs has lots of readers in the financial industry and a big part of this growing awareness comes from his work.)

August. So far, signal. Looking forward to the next filing.

Below was posted three years ago at BTC 25k: "One of the keys back then was to watch the longer term charts (weekly and especially monthly) for when price levels that were previously lost were quietly regained. This led to huge profits for traders who were still in the game and paying attention, because it indicated the continuation of a long-term secular trend." This continues to apply. If you believe BTC is repeating the long-term fundamental and technical cycle of the tech sector that started in the mid-1990s (and longtime readers know I believe this) then you want to see that same type of price pattern: levels that were previously lost getting quietly regained (amid terrible sentiment), best viewed on monthly charts. And after the past couple weeks, that’s exactly what we’re now seeing with BTC -- and have been seeing since this post three years ago. There are a thousand ways to look at technicals and charts. I like to keep it simple, especially if you're pairing technicals with an underlying story that's a long-term new paradigm. By the way, over the past couple years, I've probably gotten more "thanks"-type private messages about this post than any other I've made over the past decade. You can see the number of views on it. Glad the historical perspective (and gray hair) helped some readers.

The upcoming 13F filings for the BTC ETFs should be interesting. Just a hunch.

The US (and the West in general) realistically has one way out of its debt situation: a combination of growth and inflation. If policy hinders growth, inflation becomes even more of a necessity -- which ultimately makes protection like BTC even more attractive. Keep this in mind as you increasingly see politically motivated anti-growth hysteria spread (AI, digital assets etc). The inflation part of the solution becomes even more important and inevitable.

A message I got after the post below: "Hi. Would love to have some recommendations for a solo traveler from NYC to El Salvador for the Summit + Bitcoin Histórico. This will be my first time there. Thanks!" Another: "Just saw your most recent post. Recommended places to stay in El Salvador? Just wife and I." A bunch of other messages like these. Feel free to ask me for tips and recommendations.

The reaffirming...

An Important effect of BTC’s recent surge is the reaffirming of it in institutional managers’ minds as debasement protection. This has always been a core investment thesis for BTC, but that perception had lapsed recently. Perceptions like this are important on Wall Street, because once established during important market events, they can last for many years and even entire careers. As a sell-side market maker in the 1990s, I still vividly remember how the assets on our desk performed during various episodes including the Asian financial crisis -- and for years after, I would instinctively look at those assets during similar market environments. If the debasement trade continues to become a focus for institutional managers, I think BTC’s recent surge has laid the groundwork for huge outperformance by it as a go-to asset for protection.

A month ago at gold $4000 (closed Friday at $4600) and BTC 64k. When sentiment meets news.

Adding to my post below from yesterday. See these new comments from Ray Dalio, which he posted a few hours ago: "I expect non-government-produced monies like gold and Bitcoin to do relatively well." "I suggest...overweighting gold and a bit of Bitcoin." linkedin.com/pulse/how-count…

Not a stretch to say that in the past couple days, BTC has been on the screens of more institutional managers than it has in a long time. That's because it's starting (emphasis on that word) to trade exactly the way you'd expect it to based on the market's increasing focus on debt. This scenario has always been a core thesis for BTC. Whenever news starts to validate a long-held investment thesis for an asset, and price starts to reflect this, traders should be paying attention.

From today. We haven't heard anything about this in a long time. But it should go without saying that traders should start watching this very closely.

👀