The best deals aren't competitive.
That's the view of my friend and early-stage investor,
@alexrubalcava. We talked on
@InvestNStartups about VC groupthink, the evolution of moats, embracing technical risk, only investing in greenfield markets, and more.
Technology risk creates opportunity. Many VCs avoid technically difficult startups, leaving room for investors able to assess and underwrite those risks. As AI makes software easier to build, Alex sees more potential in frontier tech and physical-world applications.
AI is redefining software moats. Faster development weakens traditional defensibility. Alex favors software in regulated or high-stakes settings where accuracy, auditability, accountability, and human oversight still matter.
Sales and product judgment matter more. Alex evaluates founders on whether they can ship, sell, and hire. With building easier, sales velocity and deciding what to build—and when—have become more important.
Venture suffers from groupthink. His public-markets background shapes a contrarian approach grounded in valuation discipline, independent judgment, and finding opportunities overlooked by consensus-driven investors.
Small funds can deliver big returns. Exceptional LP outcomes don't require trillion-dollar exits or mega-funds. An overlooked multibillion-dollar exit can be transformative for a smaller venture fund.
Capital efficiency reduces funding risk. Long runways give startups time to prove their case, especially when follow-on investors favor AI narratives. Alex cites profitable, fast-growing non-AI companies struggling to raise despite strong fundamentals.
Greenfield markets offer an edge. Alex prefers startups serving needs no existing technology addresses over crowded VC-backed categories. Shipping products, winning early customers, and showing demand turn unknown markets into investable opportunities.
Investing expertise must evolve. Alex highlights secondary share sales as a path to LP liquidity, Amplify's founder network as a diligence resource, and the importance of steadily expanding ones circle of competence.
Persistence needs experimentation. Productive founders test new products and sales tactics rather than repeating failed approaches. Alex recalls a founder who shut down a struggling startup and returned half its capital instead of grinding on.
Conviction beats allocation. Alex argues the best opportunities may have just one term sheet. At Stage VP, 42 of his 45 investments were noncompetitive, showing how leading overlooked rounds can create an edge.
Alex is very talented and a great investor. I hope you enjoy this one!
investinginstartups.com/post…