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The Open Ocean
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And 2025 is a wrap! Here were our 2025 picks
Not pictured is Seabird Exploration, which was acquired mid year up > 50% (good for 100% TWR)
Average pick returned ~50% for 2025, with 4/20 names providing a negative return
Best pick returned > 300%, worst pick returned -23%
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Product tanker exec told us that the Asian MR market is "very strong" this morning
Fuel tankers can be seen as a proxy for refining demand
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Bloomberg- Up to 95% of end-use chemical inventories in China accumulated through 2025 are now depleted due to Hormuz impacts
Chemicals industry shifting from glut to squeeze
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Marhelm retweeted
⭕️ IRGC targeted Ship-to-Ship transfers last night.
4 'violating ships' transferring oil cargoes in the northern Persian Gulf were simultaneously hit, according to the statement.
Additionally, three 'violating ships' suffered incidents upon 'colliding with mines' in the western part of the Strait of Hormuz.
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$DOW reports 3x increase in YOY Op EBIT for packaging and specialty plastics, citing supply constraints from Middle East conflict
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$DOW beats top and bottom, $600M ytd debt reduction
$0.71 vs $0.61 consensus
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Chinese petchem glut turns to squeeze?
#China has burned through much of a petrochemicals glut built up by years of overproduction as the US-Iran war chokes oil flows, setting the stage for higher prices for an array of industrial materials.
The squeeze is most acute in the so-called aromatics chain and the downstream products made from these chemicals, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. and commodities data provider ICIS. That includes rubber for car tires and electrical insulation, resins, and plastic bottles, as well as various paints and coatings. #oott bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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One Chinese shipbuilder has a 495-ship orderbook worth $46bn despite delivering its first vessel in 2024.
China now controls 64% of the global shipbuilding orderbook. The boom is reshaping the industry, but could today’s capacity expansion become tomorrow’s overcapacity?
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"A U.S. official confirmed to Drop Site that military assets are being moved rapidly into place in preparation for an expected green light from Trump" for renewing combat operations with iran.
Dropsite.
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Our sources indicate a restart of full scale tensions in Iran is imminent, with joint US and Israeli action
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Unsold Brazilian crude cargoes for November are weighing on Atlantic VLCC demand. Lower freight costs could lure buyers back, but until these barrels find homes, tanker demand remains under pressure.
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Saudi crude exports hit a 5-month high of 4.451M b/d in August, up 7.9% MoM even as production plunged to 6.24M b/d from 8.135M b/d in July.
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Russia is preparing tankers to ship diesel to the US for the first time under a new export deal with the Trump administration.
The first cargo: 40,000 tonnes, set to cross the Atlantic on Thursday
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$150,000/day for 12 months, a reported record Suezmax charter. Nordic American Tankers’ Nordic Hawk is said to have fixed to Trafigura at the unprecedented rate
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The Persian Gulf is dangerous
Ships are advised to avoid the area
UKMTO WARNING 180-26
Click here to view the full product⤵️
ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/prod…
#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec
ALT UKMTO WARNING 180-26
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The Strait of Hormuz omani route is empty today too. Anyone who says more oil is flowing now more than ever isn't based on reality.
Unclear why we are seeing fewer tankers crossing.
This is completely inaccurate. Sat Images shows that Saudi oil flows through the Gulf and vessel crossings via the Strait of Hormuz are both down. UKMTO confirmed the slowdown as well. Furthermore, STS transfers off Fujairah have declined over the past two weeks
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