I find the signals Wall Street hopes you miss. Trader. Risk manager. USIC Verified. Coco's human. #1 Dad. YouTube: Figuring Out Money
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I'm starting to think the pain trade is to first capitulate people out, then lock them out in a fast rally. People don't believe it, until they start to believe it, and then they get in, and then boom, they get trashed again.
IDK, but that sounds painful, especially considering what the market has been doing these last few months.
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If Trump is right about Oil falling 'right after' the midterms, then you are going to want to watch this Stock Market Report.
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The local closing high was right on schedule, Oct 5th!
Heading into the midterm elections, I thought this was an interesting analog chart.
The blue line is the 10 year yield during Trump's first term midterm year, July 2018 through January 2019. The orange line is the 10 year yield now, as we head into the current midterms.
What stands out to me is that the ramp higher started at about the same time in both years, in late August.
If this analog holds up, we could be nearing a local top between now and October 5th.
If it does, it would be worth keeping an eye on the sectors and industries that have been negatively correlated to rates.
The second image shows the industries with a strong 20 day negative correlation to the 10 year yield.
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Mike retweeted
I’m no marketing genius, but my suggestion to the Waltons would be this: allow people to lock in a lifetime combined subscription, then raise the price every 6 months incrementally. Doubtful it’ll happen. Modern society is known for its loyalty “taxes.”
I have a discord membership that was locked in at $90/yr. (No longer available even near that price). I’ve made 10s of thousands of dollars from the info there. Every company that offers memberships should be like @MarketMike
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Mike retweeted
Here is how large-cap Technology sector stocks have performed YTD. Image captured from @finviz_com free tool as shared by @MarketMike here -
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I was today years old when I realized I was taking a class on the Granite Bay High School campus at the same time Ryan Holiday, the New York Times bestselling author, was a student there.
Cool.
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Getting close to the finish line! 80/100miles completed
I'm so grateful for the support so far, we're halfway to our goal. Every donation helps us get closer to making a real difference in the fight against cancer. If you're able, please consider donating or sharing this with others, your support means the world. Thank you! 💙 gofund.me/2c2277fbd
My Milage Update:
22.5 / 100
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Tony Stawk Pro Trader
Tony Hawk skateboarding in a suit and Bam Margera running around in a penguin costume at the NYSE
You’ve outdone yourselves, @tryramp
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Here is the updated chart of the analog I have been tracking. I don't expect this to be perfect. However, it did give us great insight into the potential of a pivot/turning point in yields while they were going completely vertical.
I still find this to be a WILD analog. Both of these quick moves in yields happened during a Trump midterm year. If the analog holds, that means rates should be taking a breather in October.
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Voila!
The big advance in rates this past month is still following the 2018 analog shared previously. Today, many names that were hurt by rising rates saw strength as rates backed off a bit.
Home Depot $HD was one of them, up 3% on the day and breaking out of a downward sloping trend.
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