The Midwestern Regional Climate Center provides high-quality climate data and value-added tools for our nine-state Midwest region. Located at Purdue University.
The US is drying out a bit after weeks of above-normal precip in many regions. That said, much of the western and southern US lean wet. The North Central to the Northeast, and down the Miss River, lean dry.
Temps: Warmer than normal likely for almost all of the US. @NOAA@NWS
ALT A NOAA 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook map valid for November 10–14, 2026, illustrates precipitation probability trends across the United States. Above-normal precipitation is favored along the western and southern contiguous United States and much of Alaska. In contrast, below-normal precipitation dominates the Northern Plains, Midwest, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and parts of Hawaii.
ALT A NOAA 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook map valid for November 10–14, 2026, projecting a high probability of above-normal temperatures across nearly the entire contiguous United States. The warmest probabilities dominate the central and northern states, while near-normal temperatures are limited to northern New England, coastal Florida, and western Alaska.
October was warm, though not quite recordbreaking.
Even so, many Midwest locations had a top 5 warmest October.
You can check your city here ➡️mrcc.purdue.edu/CLIMATE/stat…
ALT write alt text for this
MRCC graphic highlighting October temperature statistics for six Midwestern cities. St. Louis averaged 65.9°F, its third-warmest October on record; Paducah, Kentucky, averaged 65°F, ranking fourth; Columbia, Missouri, averaged 64.9°F, ranking fourth; Des Moines averaged 61.7°F, ranking third; Waterloo, Iowa, averaged 58.6°F, ranking third; and Minneapolis averaged 57.8°F, ranking third. Historical temperature records extend back to the 1800s.
Curious about Flood Inundation Mapping? This critical service helps communities visualize where floodwaters will go. Learn more about building a #WeatherReadyNation with @NWSOHRFC forecaster Molly Cornelissen on Under the Umbrella! ☔️🗺️
piped.video/Q5RUHexdEMw
"Ice everywhere"
"Real bad"
"Awful ice"
These were words NWS cooperative observers used to report conditions in their communities during the Halloween 1991 storm.
Let's look back in the archives to see what observers said elsewhere in Iowa.
#iawx#iahistory#wxhistory
Indianapolis finished October having set the record for the most days with a max temperature of 65 or higher (30) which breaks the 27 last set in 1971. We tied the number of days of 70 or higher (27) last set in 1963. October tops out at the 3rd warmest on record (62.3) #INwx
📢The MRCC is hiring! 📢
We're in need of a software engineer 🖥️
Must haves include:
-Programming language/web design experience for data-driven applications
-Bachelor's degree
Know anyone? Apply here ➡️careers.purdue.edu/job/Softw…
ALT High pressure will drift east as a low pressure system moves east. This will bring widespread rainfall to the Ohio Valley by the middle of next week.
Daylight Saving Time ends this weekend! Be sure to set your clocks back one hour when you go to bed Saturday night. Take time this weekend to review weather and safety plans within your household. Be sure to change out the batteries in your smoke detectors and NOAA Weather Radio.
☔️Where is the rain?☔️
For everywhere in the green, we're pushing two weeks without measurable precipitation.
DWOP maps ➡️mrcc.purdue.edu/climate_watc…
ALT Days without observed precip. maps, no measurable precipitation for everywher ein turquoise.
After the warmest September on record at St Louis, we're actually on track for one of the warmest Octobers as well. The rest of the month is forecast to be above normal.
📢The MRCC is hiring! 📢
We're in need of a software engineer 🖥️
Must haves include:
-Programming language/web design experience for data-driven applications
-Bachelor's degree
Know anyone? Apply here ➡️careers.purdue.edu/job/Softw…
Drought has worsened in the Upper/Lower Midwest
In early Oct, MI reached Exceptional Drought (D4) for the 1st time. WI entered D4 for the 2nd time. S. MO is also dealing with D3/D4.
Impacts: fires in N. MI, reduced alfalfa yields in WI, low livestock water supplies in MO. @NOAA
ALT A U.S. Drought Monitor map valid October 20, 2026, highlights conditions across Midwestern states. Northern Michigan's Upper Peninsula and Northern Wisconsin are experiencing the most intense drought while moderate drought covers large parts of Minnesota, Illinois, and Kentucky.
ALT This map displays the 60-day percent of normal precipitation across the central United States, valid as of October 17, 2026. Below-normal precipitation conditions stretch across parts of the Upper and Lower Midwest. Above-normal precipitation stretches across central areas of the Midwest, especially Iowa.
2026 stayed active through the summer and early fall across central IN, including 9 more record high temperatures at Indianapolis since April, focused during Indy's warmest September and the second week of October (see table). Low 70s under ample sun through Monday. #INwx
ALT Something different for today's Weather Story. This slide displays a table of data in various shades of light blue, under the title in big white letters stating, Recent Indianapolis Records, with subtitle in lemon yellow of much smaller font, Daily Records Tied or Broken at Indianapolis Since June 1st. The five columns of the table are Date, Record Type, New value, Old value, and Year of old record, while each row represents a new record. There are nine records, seven of which are record high minimum temperatures: first, July 3, 77, tied minimum for the date in 1911; then September 2, 3 and 4 which were 75, 75, and 77, respectively, passing old records of 74 from 1937, 1913, and 1884. September 16's was 75, breaking 74 from 1931. October 13 and 14 both had record high minimums of 66, breaking 64 from 1879 and tying 2021, respectively. Then two of the nine records were regular record highs (maximums) of 87 and 88 on October 12 and 13, surpassing 86 from both 1879 and 1975.
Vegetation is no longer susceptible to freezing conditions for much of the Upper Midwest.
Still, areas from I-80 southward have not experienced freezing temps yet.
NWS partners can submit guidance reports here ➡️mrcc.purdue.edu/VIP
ALT Vegetation Impact Program Freeze Guidance Susceptibility as of 10/19
Freeze warnings and frost advisories are in effect for parts of the Midwest 🥶
And according to our Freeze Date Tool, it is right on time in parts of Iowa while a few days late for parts of MN & WI.
Check your city's average first freeze date ➡️ mrcc.purdue.edu/freeze/freez…
ALT Average first fall freeze date for Muscatine County, Iowa is October 16
ALT Average first fall freeze date for Dane County, Wisconsin is October 11
ALT Average first fall freeze date for Dakota County, Minnesota in the Twin Cities area is October 8
2026-2027 winter outlook! ☃
El Niño is underway and is strengthening. This certainly plays a role in the outlook, but its not the only player. Besides, no 2 years are alike.
Above-normal temps are favored. Equal chances for precipitation....
🧵
🌡️Fort Wayne's high temperature today of 87° breaks the previous record of 84° set in 1899.
This morning's low temperatures at both Fort Wayne and South Bend are on pace to break records too. We'll share those final values after 1AM EDT. #inwx#ohwx#miwx
We've got another record high! The current temperature at KIND is at 87 degrees as of 210 pm breaking the previous record of 86 that occurred in 1975. #INwx#indy
🌡️South Bend set a new record high temperature this afternoon: 86° breaks the previous record of 84 set in 2008. #inwx
They're still sitting at 86° with sunlight remaining, so, we'll update this post as needed.
Indianapolis International Airport reached 87° at 320 pm, establishing a new record high for October 12. The previous record was 86° set on this date in 1879. #INwx#indy