145 days since SpaceX IPO
$SPCX is now 92 cents (~0.7%) above IPO price.
Closed $135.92, down 3.81%. $129.75 premarket, $133.14 at the open, $140.50 by 10:15am ET, then sold all day. Back under $135 at 3:45pm and back above it in the last 15 minutes
Why it dipped: election night. Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 2.4% overnight on fears that ground data centers get frozen by permits. By the close the market was green, Nasdaq +1.44%, and it bought the companies that already run compute. Microsoft +6.68%, Amazon +6.12%, Apple +5.31%. SpaceX -3.81%, Tesla -3.34%.
Same day SpaceX picked Qualcomm to build Starlink Mobile's nationwide 5G network, tens of thousands of US cell sites. And Canada's government Starlink contract went from C$2.26M to C$28.95M. Priced like none of it happened.
~134M shares traded, busiest day since the 22 Oct unlock. About $73B of market cap gone. SpaceX is now ~$1.85T.
Near term catalysts:
1. Elon fireside chat with Ron Baron in 2 days (Nov 6), jobs report the same day
2. Anthropic IPO, roadshow reportedly from Nov 9, first trade as soon as Nov 16. Its S-1 shows up to $120.5B of SpaceX compute
3. Starship Flight 15 no earlier than Nov 12, in 8 days. First try at catching both booster and ship
4. Qualcomm 5G build for Starlink Mobile, rollout starts 2027
5. Talks with EchoStar to buy Boost Mobile or use its network, 7.4M wireless subscribers
6. A new $1.11B/month hosting deal starts Dec 1, in 27 days
7. Tesla + SpaceX merger. Barclays says an announcement could come before the Tesla AGM (Dec 3, in 29 days)
8. Remaining ~0.8B shares unlock after Dec 8, in 34 days
9. $100B ARR goal on December revenue, plus 2.5-3 GW of compute by year end
10. Goldman and Apollo now selling the $40B GPU financing to investors, closing before year end
Overnight it traded $5.25 under the IPO price. Tonight It closed above it.
I still think $200 before December is on the table. From here that's +47%, so it got harder today but I am Not changing my mind.
SpaceX will rerate itself one day out of nothing and is a big fat screaming buy.
$SPCX $TSLA