Vissa har frågat, och det är rasande kul att kunna säga att min bok om den ryska generalstaben även kommer ut på svenska med Mondial om ett par veckor! Pass på att köpa den signerad och 64 kr billigare än den engelska upplagan (länk nedan).

Good read!

A senior Ukrainian commander told me he lost more than $1 million in drones the first night StarShield went out. The next 3 days, speeds remained so unstable they canceled almost all ops striking RU logistics to protect Ukrainian infantry in the kill zone nytimes.com/2026/10/21/world…

This episode is really good and important @KofmanMichael open.spotify.com/episode/1Ji…

Just finished @OAJonsson’s superb new book 'The Russian General Staff' (review forthcoming in @SurvivalEditors). Among many insights on Russian military culture, this one stuck with me: “Russian wars often follow a pattern in which worst-case scenarios drive decision-making, but planning is characterized by best-case assumptions."

It's been a good week for Putin. In recent days, Trump has: * Struck a diesel deal lifting some sanctions * Restricted Starshield for Ukraine * Cut intel warnings of Russian missile launches against Ukraine for several days * Canceled Lindsey Graham sanctions * Demanded Ukraine dump Zelensky * Absolved Russia for helping Iran fight the US * Pushed Europe to resume buying Russian gas

The Vampire system is probably the most cost effective existing solution against cruise missiles and high-speed jet drones. Here is why. For those new to the system, it takes existing battle tested Hydra 70 mm rockets with seekers and off-the-shelf optics to make a capable SAM out to a few kilometers. It has optional integration with Link-16 for network coordination, electronic warfare systems for jamming+passive detection, and modern radars. The whole package can be mounted on any vehicle or physically deployed in a container. The biggest advantage of these and similar systems is the off-the-shelf nature. The Hydra 70 rockets are an upgrade from a 1940s design with newer propellant that has been upgraded in 1972. It has a very proven track record with multiple producers of compatible rockets including the Canadian CRV7 and Turkish Cirit. Further, there are more than a half dozen seeker options by different developers. That is a very diverse supply chain by defense standards. The cameras are also relatively common with multiple possible vendors. These could be stripped from other legacy military and commercial systems if necessary. Latest costs are reported in the $20,000-$30,000 range per missile. This is a cost advantage over jet OWA drones. Given that it can be put on the back of standard pickup trucks and small boats really lowers the threshold for force integration and costs. Defenses can be rapidly moves around populated areas for local point defense. The small size of the rockets allows dozens of reloads to be carried in the truck. The ~25 pound weight also means a single person can reload the system. This is a major advantage over larger SAMs. These systems can be stored for years in a compact form and deployed only when needed to defend cities. A less mentioned advantage is it can be fired against ground and maritime targets. Same vehicle can provide defense against almost any mid-tier threat. Its biggest drawback is lack of range. While Hydra missiles have a high peak velocity sufficient to stop cruise missiles, it has sufficient energy/g's over limited ranges ~1 km. Its range is longer versus lower speed Banderols and Geran-5s but jet drone interceptors can defend a wider area against those threats. I expect more competitors soon, but the VAMPIRE and similar systems will likely be a very common battlefield and city defensive system. These are a "write the check" solution to jet drones. Ukraine needs more and so will the West.

Satellite pictures obtained by @avivector show absolute devastation at the Borisoglebsk Air Base, Voronezh region, in Russia. They show that at least three likely four Su-34 air frames have been completely destroyed. Scorch marks indicate that more planes might have been damaged.

Throttling Starshield in the middle of the night, with no warning, is no way to handle things. It harms Ukrainian soldiers in the foxhole and in bunkers. Harms strikes against Russians in occupied areas. Harms countering Russian drones of many classes. Gets people killed./

Gör som Mattias, gläd er över bra böcker i bokhandlarnas skyltfönster!

🇺🇸 SpaceX uppges ha begränsat Starlink i Ukraina vilket fått Polens utrikesminister att kritisera Musk, då Polen finansierar Ukrainas abonnemang. Det handlar om en hastighetsbegränsning som tvingat fram inställda drönaruppdrag - detta kommer samtidigt som USA pressar Ukraina att upphöra med attacker mot ryska oljeraffinaderier - troligtvis för att stabilisera oljepriset inför det amerikanska mellanårsvalet i november #PrataPengar #Finanstwitter

Major new development with Trump/Musk apparently restricting use of Starlink above Ukraine.