🚨NEW ARTICLE AND INTERACTIVES🚨
Polling has a problem this year.
Total Recall Bias.
Our findings suggest this probably causes a ~2pt error favoring Democrats in your standard generic ballot poll.
To add insult to injury, many pollsters are using pretty conservative weights this year. A large non-response bias amongst Republicans must occur to counteract these observations; otherwise, we are probably on track for a VA/NJ 2025 repeat.
The groups Trump made his largest gains with (younger, non-white, lower income, non-college, politically disaffected) are the most likely to lie to pollsters by saying they didn't vote for him in 2024, because they're reinforcing their upcoming vote choice.
projects.statenavigate.com/f…