AI research | 30 years in tech & business | Agent tinkerer | Hermes Agent | Ex-dev turned AI dad | Latest initiative: nerfwatch.googz.com/

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Sharing my latest initiative - the Nerfwatch Index What is Nerfwatch Index? Like many, I have often questioned whether models from the big AI labs are dialed back (i.e. 'nerfed') over time. I presume this might be to practically manage ongoing model delivery commitments within finite compute. Maybe it's just to reduce costs over time? Either way- it's challenging to prove, but we sometimes just sense things 'back off a bit' as we use them. I'm contributing some of my subscription capacity ongoing for a while to test for this phenomena (started just before Sonnet 5.5 launched), and will see whether it is indeed true or not. How does it work? Nerfwatch Index tracks whether closed AI models maintain their original performance over time. Twice daily, models face the same 20 tests, with the outputs judged against strict quality standards (measurable / empirical), despite challenging constraints and conditions. Link: nerfwatch.googz.com Do you believe the big labs nerf their models over time?
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Ran my Personal Agent benchmark (PA Core) on @ornith_'s new 1.5 122B-A10B vs their 35B-A3B. Overall: 71.2 → 80.7 (+9.5) The biggest jump was where agents usually break, change-of-plan recovery (PA4): 56.3 → 72.3 (+16) Daily organisation: 62.0 → 71.3 Scheduling & drafting: 95.3 → 98.3 Nice improvements across the board and, importantly, 122B was 100% successful in terms of structured output, compared to 35B where 4 out of 9 results were not structured as requested. More info on how the test works in the comments👇
Got an early invite from @ornith_ to test their new model ahead of tomorrow's release. Really appreciate it🙏 Ornith 1.5 122B-A10B MoE! First thing I did: ran it through the Nerfwatch Index. 20/20. A perfect score, with adaptive reasoning on. Caveats: Nerfwatch is a narrow 20-test set built to catch regressions over time, not to rank models. This model also has a much higher reasoning setting, but a clean sweep on day one is a strong first signal. Plenty more testing to come.
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Testing background and approach:
Given the type of small-GPU LLM testing I've been doing of late, I put together a reference that explains the real world use cases, and why I test them. Hopefully it helps explain the value I look for, as it may be different to others.
Article

Benchmarking Local LLMs for a Personal Agent

My LLM testing regime is designed around a practical question: can a locally run model move beyond chat, and become a reliable personal agent or administrative assistant? (Disclaimer: AI was used to

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I should really be hammering Astra with all these resets..
Day 15/ Nevermind, we're still cooking... and reset. Enjoy.
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GooGZ AI retweeted
Got an early invite from @ornith_ to test their new model ahead of tomorrow's release. Really appreciate it🙏 Ornith 1.5 122B-A10B MoE! First thing I did: ran it through the Nerfwatch Index. 20/20. A perfect score, with adaptive reasoning on. Caveats: Nerfwatch is a narrow 20-test set built to catch regressions over time, not to rank models. This model also has a much higher reasoning setting, but a clean sweep on day one is a strong first signal. Plenty more testing to come.
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My quest for a usable Qwen 3.8 27B on a 10GB RTX 3080 continues😕 I tested @UnslothAI's new ultra-dense quants: ▶️ Best Qwen 27B quant: 156 tok/s prompt, 62.7 on my agent tests ▶️ @PrismML's Ternary Bonsai 2 27B: 1,097 tok/s prompt, 86.0 That's 7x faster prompt processing and a far smarter agent, at the same size. @OpenBMB's MiniCPM-V 4.7 is right there too (85.7), and it's the one to beat on the hard change-of-plan tasks (91 vs Bonsai's 73). On 10GB, squeezing a dense 27B this hard just doesn't pay. Pick a model built for small footprints.
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52 vs 91. That's the gap on my change-of-plan recovery test between a Qwen3.8 35B-A3B distill and @OpenBMB's MiniCPM-V 4.7 35B-A3B, same IQ3_M quant, on an RTX 3080 10GB at 50K context. MiniCPM is faster too (551 vs 498 tok/s prompt, 24.5 vs 21.8 generation). No surprise it's trending. 8-12GB GPUs are a huge market, with lots of gamers moving into local AI (like me!). Aggressive quants and distilled MoEs handle basic tool calls, chat and light agent work fine. But in a demanding agent loop, MiniCPM-V pulls away. 52 vs 91 is the difference between trusting an agent with a busy, changing schedule or not.
🥈 MiniCPM-V 4.7 just climbed to #2 on @huggingface Trending! Thank you to everyone trying the model, sharing feedback, and building with it. Your support keeps us pushing on-device multimodal AI forward. 📱 35B-A3B MoE runs smoothly on iOS and Android with ~3GB memory. The 1B model delivers strong OCR, math, and video understanding performance. Try it! 🤗 Models: huggingface.co/collections/o… 💻 GitHub: github.com/OpenBMB/MiniCPM-V Let's keep the momentum going! 🚀
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What’s going on with the latest X app on iPadOS ? These gaps on either side is a massive waste of screen realestate. Preferred the previous version where it was more like the X desktop experience.. (Shout-out to @YashHustle_22 and @Chris_Wozniczek who just happened to hit top of the feed at the time!)
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Great support, and also glad to hear that Daybreak is a program that businesses can proactively get involved with- I would say it’s a must for any medium/large enterprise.
Our team worked with OpenCode to have their users who are also OpenAI API customers back in business and any credits refunded which would have been drawn in the attack. Also, you can request Daybreak Blue access to use our cyber permissive setup for defense. Do not wait until you have to deal with an incident. We’re here to help.
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A side note on this- in traditional chip fab/architecture/lithography terms, running at 87c temp sounds bad - but is well within engineering tolerance. I would argue that if you are not pushing 90-100c at full load on a GPU, then you are leaving performance headroom on the table. What are Sparks supposed to sustain peak temp at?
There's a big argument on whether you _should_ cap the clock rates on your DGX Sparks because they are, in theory, supposed to cool themselves to safe levels. NVIDIA doesn't recommend capping them, but they also don't recommend not capping them. Here's my thoughts on this: I have a couple of DGX Sparks that are marginal when running heavy prefill on GLM 5.3. This model pushes the box to the max. I'm not kidding - it jumps from ~47C to 87C in under a minute. During a heavy TP=3 prefill test, one box reliably powers itself off (!) without a clock cap. With a clock cap, it stays on. I have an additional fan moving air over the Sparks. I can add additional cooling, but this is a datapoint where NVIDIA's guidance is, in fact, wrong. Not all DGX Sparks can ramp their fans and/or throttle their own power fast enough to prevent thermal shutdown without a clock cap. 2200 MHz is enough to keep it alive. You know what? I'm happy to give up a small 1-2% gap in peak performance to keep the Sparks alive. Heat over time is one of the silent killer of chips.
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Qwen 3.8 27B was a real eye-opener.. makes you wonder what the Labs could achieve if these smaller models were more of a priority (because I don’t think they are).
I'm quickly becoming more impressed with smaller models that perform at frontier levels and more bored with giant models that I cannot run myself. At this point, I've realized I just really don't care to run the shit over an API. I would rather wait for smaller local models to catch up to the frontier. By that, I mean closing the gap between Qwen 3.8 27B/Next-Flash and the new DeepSeek v4.1. At the rate we're going, it's only a matter of time before we see that level of performance in models the size of Qwen 3.8. Remember, there are small models that beat DeepSeek R1, which was long fawned over for how good it was. Now it's beaten by a 27B model or even Nemotron at 120B. The majority of people have less than 128GB of VRAM, and it will most likely remain that way unless something happens to make VRAM unfathomably cheap. That constraint will eventually pressure developers to make better, smaller open models. There's some nuance to this, ofc.
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More testing of Ternary Bonsai 2 - looking at 9B this time, on my RTX 3080 10GB. With intelligence, this is close to the best of the 4-bit competition that I normally work with (NeoHorse and Ornith). With speed, it's in another league - almost 30% faster with prompts and 75% faster on output. Ternary models are here to stay. 👉
Today, we’re releasing Bonsai 2 2B, 4B, and 9B. Based on Qwen3.5, these new ternary models bring stronger reasoning, visual understanding, and tool calling to compact footprints designed for everyday devices: • 2B: 0.43GB • 4B: 0.95GB • 9B: 2.0GB For this release, we focused on what makes small models useful as local assistants: following instructions, avoiding repetitive loops, calling tools on mobile devices, and giving useful answers without unnecessary output. The 9B model uses roughly 40% fewer tokens on standard instruction-following and everyday math tasks. Solving the Riemann hypothesis can wait. These models are successors to our first-generation Bonsai 1.7B, 4B, and 8B, and provide a foundation for bringing practical agentic functionality to local applications on personal computers, phones, and wearables. The Bonsai 2 family now includes four sizes spanning 2B to 27B parameters. Developers can choose the balance of capability, memory use, and responsiveness that fits their application and hardware. Available today under Apache 2.0.
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A feature I'm missing is having separate conversations (chats) with the same bot.. or should I have one bot per topic/conversation? Having a bot + desktop instance spin up for each new topic seems excessive (assuming that is what is happening), but at any given time I might have a few interests on the go, and want to progress them in parallel as the mood takes. Am I missing something with how Grok bot works? Any advice is welcome.
We've made some improvements to Grok Bot’s quality, polish, and speed. Cards in chat have a new design with a cleaner layout.
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TIL my main use-case is not really what was intended for Hermes Agent, and that’s OK! Grok Bot and Muse exist but, I enjoy driving a Lambo to the corner store to grab some milk. Will keep using (and enhancing) my ‘leaned out’ Hermes profile as a personal assistant, and enjoy how over-engineered it is for the job❤️ Anyone else using Hermes Agent as a personal assistant?
Friendly reminder that Hermes was never built or intended to be exclusively for the "personal assistant" agent that can just read your emails and nothing else. I fully intend and have plainly stated many times that I always built hermes to be the most powerful AI Agent. "Normie" consumers can leverage that and we do what we can to make it an experience they can approach (the mobile app will be almost exclusively focused on consumer) - but they are not our only demographic. I want the scientists, the cybersecurity engineers, the developers, the knowledge workers, the creatives, and everyone else to be able to have an agent that they can leverage that is maximally useful to them too. Not just your mom. (She called btw you need to make your bed)
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Hands up if you want to see this remake🙌
Made with AI
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GPT-6.1 Sol is my default model for Hermes Agent and has never missed a beat. As soon as I have something bedded down, Luna takes over. This approach is highly recommended esp if your are on lower end plans.
GPT-6.1 Sol takes the #2 spot in the Hermes Index.. what is your experience when it comes to GPT models?
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Wow. Should I drop my GPT Plus and just main Grok with DSV4 as backup? I can't use Astra anyway.
🚀 DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017 is here! Stronger benchmark performance, faster task completion, and shorter outputs than the previous version—a Pareto improvement in performance and cost. Now live on our website, app, and API. 🛠️ Optimized for @DeepSeekHarness, Tencent CodeBuddy, WorkBuddy, and more. Upgrade to DeepSeek Harness v0.2.1-rc.1 or later for the best experience with the new model. 1/4
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How easy (or hard) would it be to recompile Omarchy to run on the power-pc of the PS3 Slim (the last that allowed Linux installs) ? Would be a cool little project (and I have a slim that is otherwise unused), but wondering if I'll be wasting my time. Thoughts/ideas?
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Been married 20 years, but the only time my wife has ever reacted to any cool tech or car stuff ever (i.e. an ‘omfg!’ reaction) … was when I showed her the clip of the Tesla Roadster. 😄
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