UChicago Professor of Political Science directs Chicago Project on Security & Threats, author Bombing To Win and writes substack: The Escalation Trap.
Chicago
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“Pape’s book presents a critically important and insightful analysis of the dangerous realities of internal divisions that destroy security and governance.”—Chuck Hagel, former U.S. Secretary of Defense and United States senator
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Winter is coming …
Due to escalating Iran war in …
The Gulf
Europe and
Potentially America
Watch why: piped.video/tH2bGB7VAbw
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April 30, 1970: Nixon widens the war into Cambodia
May 4: Kent State
Four days
Three mechanisms turned a war abroad into gunfire at home -- All three are in motion again as Iran War escalation heats up
Could it happen again? LIVE Sunday, 2pm ET: professorrobertpape.substack…
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Today’s polls show emerging political bloodbath for Republicans — and midterms only 12 days away!
What will a desperate Trump do in Iran?
Join us to my live briefing on Escalation Trap tonight at 7pm ET. piped.video/_g9EaBiqcak
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Trump blocked Israel’s October 10 strike on Iran
Tehran: “Not a single gram” of uranium leaves
Rubio: a deal is “extremely difficult"
Everyone thinks the danger eased -- They’re missing what Trump’s veto really means
Escalation Trap Live Briefing tonight, 7 ET:
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Join the Live Briefing tonight Oct 21 at 7pm ET and bring your questions that I answer live: escalationtrap.substack.com/…
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Iran says Hormuz can reopen in six days
Today Russia’s Lavrov lands in Tehran to broker it
Headlines will call it a breakthrough -- It isn’t. The real gap is one Moscow can’t close, and Moscow is making a bet on Trump that should alarm Kyiv
Why: escalationtrap.substack.com/…
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What’s driving Trump
On Russia diesel deal?
On MOAB threat to Pickaxe?
On going all in on Bibi?
Three puzzles— one reason
See: piped.video/a5dGWmpgWV4
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France: 550,000 marched. A determined minority torched a 143-year-old town hall and looted in 13+ cities. 1,800+ arrested, per official figures
This is how violent populism starts
America is already a step further, and Nov. 3 is 16 days away professorrobertpape.substack…
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The full framework is in my book, Our Own Worst Enemies: America in the Age of Violent Populism: thenewpress.org/books/our-ow…
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Trump on Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain: “We’ll knock it out fast.”
The problem: its tunnels sit an estimated 300+ ft under granite. Deeper than any US bomb can reach. And Iran has already buried the entrances.
So what is the MOAB really for?
My answer: escalationtrap.substack.com/…
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Houthis hit Riyadh’s airport 20 times this month.
Now 15,000+ Pakistani troops and French air defenses are in Saudi Arabia
Each new army is a new path to wider war. 1914 had 10 such paths. This region now has 36
Chaos is coming — Last Week Today: piped.video/n6DOoYayQNA
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Trump promised: no attack on Iran before the midterms
Then came MOAB strike plans, a third carrier, and talk of hitting Iran before Nov. 3
Everyone says a pre-election war is political suicide. The numbers say the opposite
Why + the signal to watch:
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No since the July crisis in World War I
Has the world seen such interlocking preemptive spirals
Watch the Guns of October unfolding in the widening Iran War
piped.video/Z03rjvrCcoM
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Tehran expects to be bombed “in the short term"
The US reportedly has the MOAB in its plans -- Israel is on maximum alert
A country that expects to be hit is tempted to hit first
Is Iran preparing to strike? My analysis: escalationtrap.substack.com/…
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Hitler bombed London to break Britain. Britain’s answer: a plan projecting 900,000 German dead
Putin now plans to freeze Kyiv
I’ve studied this strategy for 30 years. What comes back to Moscow, and to your diesel bill: professorrobertpape.substack…
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Putin is out of diesel. Russia’s diesel exports fell nearly 80% this year
Yet Trump just traded sanctions relief until 2027 for about half a day of U.S. diesel
Why?
It’s not prices. It’s not peace. It’s a group of voters almost no one is watching professorrobertpape.substack…
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Saudi Arabia’s worst week ever: Riyadh’s airport, a refinery, Aramco HQ. All hit in 6 days
The targets are climbing a ladder. One rung is left. The last time it was hit, 5% of the world’s oil vanished in a morning
What’s next, and the odds: escalationtrap.substack.com/…
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