NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS NORTH CAROLINA SENATE POLL | October 26, 2026 Our latest (and last) survey for the North Carolina Senate race finds Roy Cooper leading Michael Whatley by 8.6 points, a week out from Election Day. 📊 U.S. Senate Ballot 🔵 Roy Cooper: 51.4% 🔴 Michael Whatley: 42.8% ⚪️ Undecided: 3.4% ⚪️ Minor candidates / someone else: 2.4% — Cooper leads by 8.6 points. — With leaners allocated: 🔵 Cooper 52.4% 🔴 Whatley 43.4% — Cooper +9.0 📊 Two-Candidate Ballot 🔵 Cooper 53.2% 🔴 Whatley 44.1% — Cooper +9.1 –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 Party Registration Democrats: Cooper 94% Republicans: Whatley 89% Unaffiliated: Cooper 55% / Whatley 36% 📊 Gender Women: Cooper +16 Men: Whatley +1 📊 Race / Ethnicity White: Whatley +7 Black: Cooper +69 Hispanic: Cooper +35 † –––––––––––––––––––––––––– Since our September wave (Cooper +5.3 on the same basis), Cooper is up 1.6 and Whatley down 1.8. –––––––––––––––––––––––––– October 24–25, 2026 · 722 LV · MoE ±4.0 Read the full report and crosstabs: quantusinsights [dot] org/polling

NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS INDIANA STATEWIDE POLL | October 23, 2026 Our latest survey finds Democrat Beau Bayh leading Republican Max Engling by three for Indiana Secretary of State, while Republicans Elise Nieshalla and Daniel Elliott lead the Comptroller and Treasurer races by six and eight, with less than two weeks remaining until Election Day. 📊 Secretary of State Ballot 🔵 Beau Bayh (D): 41.6% 🔴 Max Engling (R): 38.6% ⚪️ Undecided: 12.7% ⚪️ Greg Ballard (I): 4.1% ⚪️ Lauri Shillings (L): 2.1% — Bayh +3.0. With leaners allocated: Bayh 43.3% / Engling 40.4% (+2.9). 📊 State Comptroller Ballot 🔴 Elise Nieshalla (R): 42.1% 🔵 Jessica Bailey (D): 36.5% ⚪️ Undecided: 14.3% ⚪️ John Schick (L): 2.9% ⚪️ Another candidate: 1.8% — Nieshalla +5.6. With leaners: Nieshalla 45.4% / Bailey 37.4% (+8.1). 📊 State Treasurer Ballot 🔴 Daniel Elliott (R): 44.4% 🔵 Coumba Kebe (D): 36.3% ⚪️ Undecided: 13.9% ⚪️ Another candidate: 1.4% — Elliott +8.1. With leaners: Elliott 46.2% / Kebe 38.4% (+7.8). –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 The Split Ticket Bayh runs well ahead of the rest of the Democratic ticket, and the gap is his personal vote. Women back him by 10 but lean Bailey by 3 and Kebe by 1; Independents are Bayh +8 but Nieshalla +4 and Elliott +3. Roughly one voter in seven is undecided on each ballot, and most stay undecided when pushed. –––––––––––––––––––––––––– October 19–21, 2026 · 757 likely voters · MoE ±3.8 Full report and methodology: quantusinsights [dot] org/polling

And there’s still time for one more.

Texas Senate polling is showing an interesting trend. Across nine surveys fielded October 5–19, LOESS models suggest Talarico’s earlier 3–4 point advantage has narrowed to essentially a dead heat. The RCP average remains D+1.9, but both smoothing models converge near parity. That’s suggestive of tightening, but pollster effects, sampling variation, etc., remain important caveats.

NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS SOUTH DAKOTA U.S. SENATE POLL | October 21, 2026 Our latest survey finds Mike Rounds leading independent Brian Bengs by 21 in South Dakota's U.S. Senate race, with nine in ten voters saying their mind is made up and two weeks remaining until Election Day. 📊 U.S. Senate Ballot 🔴 Mike Rounds (R): 57.2% 🟡 Brian Bengs (I): 36.5% ⚪️ Undecided: 4.6% ⚪️ Another candidate: 1.7% — Rounds +20.7. With leaners allocated: Rounds 59.4% / Bengs 37.3% (+22.1). 📊 Vote Certainty Definitely decided: 90.6% Could change my mind: 7.0% Not sure: 2.4% 📊 Favorability 🔴 Rounds: 52.0% favorable / 43.5% unfavorable (+8.5) 🟡 Bengs: 40.4% favorable / 29.0% unfavorable (+11.4) 31% have never heard of Bengs or have no opinion. –––––––––––––––––––––––––– U.S. Senate Demographic Results: 📊 Gender Women: Rounds +18 Men: Rounds +23 📊 Party Republicans: Rounds 86%/Bengs 9% Democrats: Bengs 85%/Rounds 7% Independents: Bengs 56%/Rounds 34% –––––––––––––––––––––––––– The Race: Bengs carries Democrats and independents, 44% of the electorate, and holds the better net image. Rounds holds 86% of Republicans, who are 56% of the likely electorate, and leads every age group over 30, both genders and both major media markets. Respondents recall a Trump +24.8 vote in 2024 against the certified +29.2. Rounds runs behind Trump's recalled share and Bengs runs ahead of Harris. –––––––––––––––––––––––––– October 17–19, 2026 · 657 likely voters · MoE ±4.1 Full report and methodology: quantusinsights [dot] org/polling

NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS MONTANA SENATE POLL Our latest survey of likely Montana voters finds Republican Kurt Alme holding his lead on the U.S. Senate ballot, with independent Seth Bodnar pulling clear of Democrat Alani Bankhead for second since our September survey. 📊 Montana U.S. Senate 🔴 Kurt Alme (R): 43.8% 🟡 Seth Bodnar (I): 28.2% 🔵 Alani Bankhead (D): 20.6% 🟨 Kyle Austin (L): 1.7% ⚪️ Undecided: 5.2% ⚪️ Someone else: 0.4% ––Alme +15.6 –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 With Leaners Included 🔴 Kurt Alme (R): 45.6% 🟡 Seth Bodnar (I): 29.4% 🔵 Alani Bankhead (D): 21.2% 🟨 Kyle Austin (L): 1.8% ⚪️ Undecided: 1.5% ⚪️ Someone else: 0.4% ––Alme +16.2 –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 Candidate Favorability 🔴 Kurt Alme Favorable: 47.0% | Unfavorable: 44.3% 🟡 Seth Bodnar Favorable: 44.0% | Unfavorable: 43.9% 🔵 Alani Bankhead Favorable: 33.4% | Unfavorable: 43.9% –––––––––––––––––––––––––– Alme is unchanged from September and below 50%, but the vote against him is consolidating: Bodnar is up 3.9 points and Bankhead down 2.5, widening the gap between them from 1.2 points to 7.6. Our full release examines the September-to-October trend. October 15–18, 2026 • 686 LV • Reported MoE ±4.0 points Full report and crosstabs: quantusinsights [dot] org/polling

NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS GEORGIA STATEWIDE POLL | October 19, 2026 Our latest survey finds Jon Ossoff leading Mike Collins by seven in Georgia’s U.S. Senate race, while the Governor and Lieutenant Governor contests are statistical ties, with two weeks remaining until Election Day. 📊 U.S. Senate Ballot 🔵 Jon Ossoff (D): 51.8% 🔴 Mike Collins (R): 44.9% ⚪️ Undecided: 2.9% ⚪️ Another candidate: 0.4% — Ossoff +6.9. With leaners allocated: Ossoff 52.7% / Collins 45.4% (+7.3). 📊 Governor Ballot 🔴 Rick Jackson (R): 48.2% 🔵 Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): 46.6% ⚪️ Undecided: 4.5% ⚪️ Another candidate: 0.6% — Jackson +1.6. With leaners: Jackson 49.0% / Bottoms 47.5% (+1.5). 📊 Lieutenant Governor Ballot 🔴 Greg Dolezal (R): 47.3% 🔵 Josh McLaurin (D): 46.6% ⚪️ Undecided: 6.1% — Dolezal +0.7. With leaners: Dolezal 48.1% / McLaurin 47.2% (+0.9). –––––––––––––––––––––––––– U.S. Senate Demographic Results: 📊 Gender Women: Ossoff +16 Men: Collins +4 📊 Age 18–29: Ossoff +41 30–44: Ossoff +27 45–64: Collins +3 65+: Collins +9 📊 Race White: Collins +31 Black: Ossoff +82 Hispanic: Ossoff +24 📊 Party Republicans: Collins 92%/Ossoff 6% Democrats: Ossoff 96%/Collins 3% Independents: Ossoff 56%/Collins 35% –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 The Split Ticket Ossoff runs about eight points ahead of the rest of the Democratic ticket. Partisans hold on every line; the gap is independents and the suburbs, who back Ossoff by 21 and 13 but split nearly even for Governor and lean Republican for Lt. Governor. –––––––––––––––––––––––––– October 15–17, 2026 · 755 likely voters · MoE ±3.8 Full report and methodology: quantusinsights [dot] org/polling

Inflation setback, with pressure now extending beyond energy. BLS headline PPI rose 1.3% in September and 6.3% over the year, making it the largest annual increase since December 2022. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, prices rose 0.5% monthly and 5.0% annually. September alone: Energy +10.8%, gasoline +20.3%.

Partisan nonresponse bias is far more nuanced than people realize... Here's what we see when we isolate SMS survey respondents in red and swing Senate states this cycle and match them to their modeled party in the voter file. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that Democrats are responding at a higher clip than Republicans in 9 of the 10 most recent states we surveyed. Notably, those are the same states where Republicans have beaten the polls in 43 of 58 races since 2018. Last year, we at Quantus, along with the rest of the polling industry, missed big in New Jersey due to the inverse effect where engaged Republicans were more likely to respond to surveys and taint the swing / lean cells in the opposite direction. New Jersey Republicans answered at a higher rate last year and still lost the Governor's race by 14. The reality is that the small, highly engaged slice of each party that responds to text surveys tells you very little about statewide turnout and the depth of a candidate's support. Oh, and this nonresponse bias is actually worse in the cheaper collection modes like SMS and online panels too, which is what a large amount of public polling has shifted to for survey collection over the last 10+ years.

Across seven Senate battleground states, 45 of 61 polls listed by RCP (74%) show margins of three points or less. Five states have the same median: D+2. Iowa centers at D+1; Ohio at D+3. The larger Democratic leads pull several averages above their medians. Michigan is the clearest example. Five polls show El-Sayed +1 or +2, while the other two show +5 and +7. While interesting, none of this establishes that the polls are accurate or exclude shared response bias or even so-called herding. And clustering across firms within a race is a different statistical question from unusually low variation within one firm across races.

Marist shows the Senate race tightening and after our tied poll 47-47 released earlier today. We’ll see how interesting things get over the next two weeks.

NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS TEXAS SENATE POLL | October 13, 2026 Our latest survey finds Ken Paxton and James Talarico essentially tied in Texas’ U.S. Senate race, with 23 days remaining until Election Day at the close of fieldwork. 📊 U.S. Senate Ballot 🔴 Ken Paxton (R): 47.2% 🔵 James Talarico (D): 46.7% ⚪️ Ted Brown (L): 2.2% ⚪️ Undecided: 3.9% — Paxton +0.5. Neither candidate reaches 50%, with Brown’s support and the undecided share totaling 6.1%. –––––––––––––––––––––––––– Demographic Results: 📊 Gender • Women: Talarico +10 • Men: Paxton +12 📊 Age • 18–29: Talarico +33 • 30–44: Talarico +13 • 45–64: Paxton +4 • 65+: Paxton +17 📊 Race / Ethnicity • White: Paxton +23 • Hispanic: Talarico +18 • Black: Talarico +72 📊 Party • Republicans: Paxton 87% /Talarico 7% • Democrats: Talarico 95% / Paxton 2% • Independents: Talarico 52% / Paxton 37% 📊 Geography • Urban: Talarico +26 • Suburban: Paxton 50% / Talarico 45% • Rural: Paxton +34 –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 Candidate Favorability • Paxton: 45.8% favorable / 51.8% unfavorable • Talarico: 48.6% favorable / 46.8% unfavorable 📊 In Step With Texas? We asked whether each candidate’s views and values are in line with most Texans or out of step: • Paxton: 48.6% in line / 47.7% out of step • Talarico: 45.5% in line / 48.3% out of step 📊 Social-Circle Vote Perception Who do voters think their friends, family, coworkers, and neighbors will support? • Mostly or almost all Paxton: 43.1% • Mostly or almost all Talarico: 41.7% • About evenly split: 4.5% • Not sure: 10.6% — Paxton +1.4 in perceived support. 📊 2024 Presidential Vote Recall • Trump: 51.5% • Harris: 41.1% — Trump +10.4. –––––––––––––––––––––––––– October 9–11, 2026 · 854 full sample · 839 voters-only ballot base · MoE ±3.6 percentage points Full report and methodology: quantusinsights [dot] org/polling

Texas US Senate, tomorrow.

Very respectfully, it was a solid poll.

National generic ballot, Quantus omni-sample review, pooled and voter-file modeled. Hispanics come in at D+20 to +27. The debate spans D +15 to +35. We treat the recall vote choice as a modeled uncertainty, not a fixed setting, so here we band it instead of picking a point. At 11% of the electorate, each point of Hispanic margin is worth 0.11 on the generic ballot. Our band moves the topline ±0.8. The wide band moves it ±2.2, and Hispanics become the second-largest source of uncertainty in the number. The chart shows what each assumption is worth.