A few reasons for this:
(1) BTC shift to becoming a productive asset. As you said, “BTC is dead” “there is nothing you can do with it”. BTC very recently got self-custodial yield (
@Stacks enabled this). 21Shares, Nakamoto, and other large institutions are already earning 3% BTC on BTC yield. Billions more in demand pipeline. BTC becomes a productive asset with such income (similar to SOL & ETH). You can borrow against same collateral and participate in onchain capital markets (
@ZestProtocol for example is already doing this). This is new info against your current view that BTC is just passive SoV.
(2) BTC quantum and AI-threats are currently overblown. I’m aware of private work streams that will significantly reduce the market fear around Bitcoin’s quantum and AI-safety risk (this is not widely known but a big factor in my BTC price estimate).
@chamath for example cited Bitcoin’s inability to organize against quantum risk as a major reason for being bearish. I can take the other side of it because of the above mentioned private work streams. (I happen to be deep in the Bitcoin eco since 2013, so have early access to such developments.)