Senior Research Scholar at Columbia U. Former Anti-Corruption Coordinator at Dept of State (among other things), White House and Dept of Energy. Personal acct.

Washington, DC
This is an important story for three main reasons beyond the obvious value that these goods have for Iran's capabilities. First, it shows the limits of sanctions. Max pressure sanctions have been in effect since 2018. MODAFL has been sanctioned since the Bush Admin. 1/4
Iran created a secret network of military agencies to import at least $2 billion in hardware, explosives and heavy-duty trucks since January 2025, evading both the US naval blockade and Western sanctions, a Reuters investigation found reut.rs/3UNGyfk
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Third, you're not going to bomb, blockade or sanction this threat away. Root causes require root solutions. Now, people will disagree about what those solutions should be. That's not an issue I feel like debating right now; feel free, amongst yourselves. 3/4
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My point today is that no tool will work in furtherance of a bad strategy or a disjointed policy or a policy based on fantasy about what the tool can achieve. 4/4
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Smart decision by those firms. An insufficient GL is pretty flimsy cover for breaking US law...and, of course, accepting micro amounts of blood-soaked Russian diesel as part of a messaging ploy isn't exactly sound, long-term strategy.
NEWS w/ @anna_c_kramer: Trump aides are privately pressing US firms to take shipments Russian diesel currently crossing the Atlantic, sources say Firms do not want to say yes, seeing major legal & reputational risks Ukrainians warn against accepting “blood money” washingtonsun.com/whitehouse…
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Putin is a humanitarian, donchaknow?
A massacre in the Dnipro passenger railway station today. A guided Russian drone targeted a crowded platform, killing at least 13 people and injuring many others, as per city officials. But diesel. But Russia wants peace. But don’t you dare hit their refineries.
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"Amid all the talk of Pickaxe, does anyone remember Isfahan?" 🙋‍♂️
Very important statement by @iaeaorg DG @rafaelmgrossi on Iran's nuclear program here, with 2 critical points worth zooming in on for policymakers as they weigh the costs and benefits of more strikes or staying the course against the balance sheet of the past on counterproliferation measures against Iran: 1) While the military "win" of the 12-Day War in the counterproliferation space was ending Iranian enrichment at declared facilities and targeting the regime's weaponization sites and scientists, the trade off was the loss of IAEA access at targeted nuclear facilities, implementation of the CSA, and the inability to comment on diversion of nuclear material. Grossi below 👇 "Maintaining continuity of knowledge is crucial in any verification and monitoring process. Iran has not provided the requested information and access so that the IAEA can verify previously declared nuclear material at Iran’s facilities under safeguards, both those that have been affected by military attacks and those that have not... as of today the IAEA has not been able to verify that there has been no diversion of nuclear material required to be safeguarded under Iran’s CSA. This can and must be rectified." & 2) Amid all the talk of Pickaxe, does anyone remember Isfahan? Not the tunnels for storage of enriched uranium in canisters, but the plan for a new enrichment plant the regime talked about last June. The IAEA was supposed to go to this new facility in Isfahan on June 13, 2025, but the war started earlier that day. The status of the facility remains unknown, but it is assessed that the location is at/near the bigger Isfahan nuclear complex (technically, the NITC). One day before the start of the 12-Day War, Iran told the IAEA that facility will be at the Nuclear Reactors Fuel Company (NRFC). During the 12-Day War, both Israel and the U.S. struck different portions of the broader Isfahan complex. It is unclear if either did so again in the 40-Day War in 2026. Grossi below👇 "Information on and access to the Isfahan Fuel Enrichment Plant, declared by Iran immediately before the military attacks of June 2025, is necessary so that our inspectors can verify the status of the facility for safeguards purposes, and whether it contains nuclear material. Iran had agreed, back in 2025, to allow our inspectors to access this facility. The commencement of the attacks prevented our inspectors from going to the site and since then Iran has not accepted the Agency’s repeated requests for access."
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Listen, it's like his peace deals: if Trump announces that he has won the fourth war with Iran this year, he can add it to his notches on the Resolute Desk that proves he's a really good president. Whether anyone else experiences his victories is rather beside the point to him.
The U.S. has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the U.S. midterm elections, people briefed on the conversations said. on.wsj.com/4yHXmSL
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New: Sources from three countries confirm that the Trump Administration has advocated Viktor Orbán for UN Secretary-General. The US has encouraged Orbán to enter the race, even bringing him the initial idea of a joint U.S.-Russia-China candidacy. WSJ: wsj.com/opinion/viktor-orban…
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Setting aside whether this is true, it is Steinbrenner's POV...but, boy, I think he needs to see if he can't find who was responsible for hiring those players. He might want to have a talk with them.
Hal Steinbrenner says Aaron Boone "managed a good season" and "the bottom line is the players didn't live up to their end of the bargain in the playoffs"
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Setting aside other critiques of this statement, it is not true that we've used every tool of national power if we've defanged our law enforcement community of tools like the beneficial ownership database and sought to give crypto a pass from real regulation/oversight.
"Under President Trump, the United States has made the total elimination of cartels and transnational criminal organizations a national imperative, and we have hunted these networks with every tool of American power. " We call on all Member States to take action with us. Read our #UNTOC2026 statement here: vienna.usmission.gov/13th-se… @State_IO @StateINL
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Uh-huh. I'm sure that's true.
A technical matter may have led to airstrikes in Ukraine that were not detected, Rubio tells us. "Our understanding is that to the extent that happened on the 13th and on the 18th, it was a technical matter. It was not the result of any sort of U.S. directive not to provide advance warning of a strike," @SecRubio said in gaggle in India. "We are providing the same warnings to them now that we always have." Rubio said perhaps there was an internal issue "in terms of them being able to take the information that was being provided and systemize it and react to it. That's possible. We're looking at it."
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This is indeed pathetic but I think it should also be seen as "I gather that my normally compliant sycophants are not fully on board and have to try to explain this away with a lot of word salad, maybe that will work." 1/2
This statement from the President of the United States of America, a position once also associated with the leader of the free world, is deeply disturbing. No one wants to end this war more than Zelenskyy. Putin does not. And why should he when Trump is trying to help him win? So disappointing. So embarrassing.
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The simplest answer remains: he wants Russia to win, he can't resolve the war with Iran, he's spinning because the midterms are coming, and it is increasingly impossible to square these various circles.
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Agree but I'll go farther: the structure of the EO tells me that these are being used, just not levied yet. The monitoring language was, to me, very key. The tariffs are in play as part of trade policy. The sanctions are not in play at all.
Yup. We're not out of the woods on Graham tariffs. Trump kept the tariff provisions legally on the table as something he can use to tariff, e.g. India or Europe, post-midterms.... (It was clear from the beginning there would be no actual Russia *sanctions*, so 0 surprise there)
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What a surprise. The president only executed tariff provisions from the Graham sanctions act. It is almost as if people predicted that he would ignore the sanctions provisions and use only the bits he wanted after they were conceded to him. whitehouse.gov/presidential-…
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Waiving the tariffs for the moment but setting up the monitoring language in sec 3 is the signal that these are the provisions that he's going to brandish, with the rates already established clearly.
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Given how the language in Sec 4 is written, they look like separate waivers for tariffs and sanctions too, all the easier to revoke.
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This is amazing and reminds me of an old football game I used to play in like 1989. Massively fun.
Think you can coach a game better than an NFL Head Coach? Prove it with my new app. Nfl2mindrill.com
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