Fund Manager, Author of "In Gold we Trust report" & "Austrian School for Investors", Proud father of 3. Suffering fan of Rapid Wien. Tweets ≠ investment advice
Liechtenstein/Austria
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20 years. 20,000+ hours. 20+ people.
The 20th anniversary In Gold We Trust report is here. 🪙
I genuinely don't know many documents with more capital, love and devotion poured into them. Everything on #Gold, #Silver, #Bitcoin, #Commodities, #SoundMoney, #AustrianEconomics — and yes, a few questionable sports analogies.
Huge thanks to @MarkValek and to our brilliant guest authors: @izakaminska @michaeljmcnair @judyshel @LukeGromen @ctindale @BullionBrief @TedJButler and many more!
👉 ingoldwetrust.report/wp-cont…
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Ronnie Stoeferle retweeted
After the @Conservative_BC landslide victory @LDoerkson just gave the most pro resource speech I think I’ve ever heard in this province. LFG
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Ronnie Stoeferle retweeted
IGWT Recap, week of Oct 23
Incrementum Active Aurum Signal: Defensive 🛡️
W/W change:
🥇 Gold (USD): 3,995.52 | -4.07%
🥈 Silver (USD): 53.89 | -5.46%
⚖️ G/S Ratio: 74.14 | +1.07
⛏️ GDX (USD): 80.20 | -8.56%
⛏️ SIL (USD): 74.06 | -10.23%
Gold closed below USD 4,000 for the first time since July, with Brent above USD 110 and a technology selloff pushing investors to sell metal for cash. Both mining lines fell about twice as hard as their metal.
Through all of it the bars kept moving. Gold held at the Bank of England rose roughly 192 tonnes between the end of June and the end of September, to about 5,782 tonnes, while the New York Fed's foreign-held pile shed 29.5 tonnes in August alone.
October hike odds closed near 7%. The FOMC decides on Wednesday.
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"The good times almost always engender much fraud. All people are most credulous when they are most happy... there is a happy opportunity for ingenious mendacity."
Walter Bagehot
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One more thing: it's fascinating how well #BTC is holding up so far in this market environment.
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Some loose thoughts on the current macro setup and what it means for #gold 🧵
Gold is under real pressure. Silver and the miners are underperforming and show no signs of strength yet.
My take: we’ll see a capitulation low over the next few days.
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And while inflation seems to be the main concern, there’s real deflationary pressure building under the surface: the AI credit wobble, housing at 2012 lows and widening sovereign spreads.
It’s always darkest before dawn. But these days the big question mark comes from macro, not from gold itself.
Enjoy the weekend and buckle up next week.
Not investment advice.
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Some loose thoughts on the current macro setup and what it means for #gold 🧵
Gold is under real pressure. Silver and the miners are underperforming and show no signs of strength yet.
My take: we’ll see a capitulation low over the next few days.
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So don’t expect too much in the near term.
Gold already dipped below $4,000 intraday, and I don’t think that level holds. For silver, $50 is the level to watch. That’s roughly the old 2011 high, and yesterday’s ceiling often becomes tomorrow’s floor.
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Perhaps the market is simply scrambling for liquidity, and gold, as the most liquid asset, gets sold first. We saw exactly that in 2008.
The real tail risk today is a plumbing event. If funding markets seize, correlations go to one: bonds, stocks, gold, all down while the USD spikes. And then the authorities backstop it. Every single time.
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This is the key difference to 2008, 2020 and other crises: this time inflation is the main concern.
So central banks don’t have the leeway to slash rates aggressively. Quite the opposite. The Fed hiked in September, and markets price another hike in December.
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Ronnie Stoeferle retweeted
This is NOT a risk to gold prices and the reason why explains an important lesson about gold and bitcoin that very few people understand.
There are obvious feasibility questions, but we can ignore those and even assume it pans out.
Based on Marathon’s estimated goal, a large reactor could produce 5t/yr. So even if you build 100 reactors thats 500 t/yr, equivalent to 14% of global mine production. But mine supply isn't what matters.
Other commodities are consumed. Oil gets burned, copper gets trapped in existing infrastructure, ect. So new production is required to meet continuing demand.
But gold (and bitcoin) are unique bc they aren't consumed. Nearly all the gold ever mined still exists and is available to be traded. So the relevant supply curve isnt the flow of newly mined supply, its the willingness of the holders of the existing stock to sell at a given price.
And even 100 reactors would only increase above ground supply by 0.2%/yr.
Price doesn’t go up to incentivize new production. It rises (or falls) to a level where enough existing holders are willing to sell to meet the demand of buyers.
Which is why the most explosive price appreciation in Bitcoin occurred when new coins were being mined significantly faster than today. Bc new issuance isn't driving price, its demand relative to the available stock.
*The fact that gold isn’t tied to marginal cost dynamics is also why goldminers have often struggled to earn adequate returns. But that’s a story for another time.
In 2025, we published a bold proposal to use fusion reactors for gold production.
And now we’ve done it: Mercury transmuted into stable gold, using fusion neutrons, at 10x the record set by CERN in 2025.
We’ve reduced alchemy to a series of difficult but tractable engineering problems.
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"This will be a mine". Agree.
"Young-Davidson-Model". I like.
ht @TUDGoldCorp
clearcommodity.net/podcasts/…
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Ronnie Stoeferle retweeted
Your ounce buys far more energy than it used to.
Priced in gold, oil lost about 80% from 1970 to April 2026.
Turning power into gold only pays because an ounce is worth so much power.
That's a vote for what your ounce is worth!
More on what gold is worth in energy below.
Last month, we demonstrated high-rate alchemy: turning mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN’s record by a factor of 10.
Last week, we enriched isotopes in the world’s most powerful plasma centrifuge, beating the Soviet record that stood for 40 years.
Now, we’re building a fusion reactor in San Francisco to achieve record power density.
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Our IGWT Active Aurum signal is on defensive, and the tape agrees. My gut: gold below 4,000, silver below 50 very soon... plenty of turmoil in macro, too. In Viennese: “Es crasherlt a bisserl” (it’s crashing, just a little). But the night is always darkest just before the dawn.
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