Weather + Climate | Look Up 🚀 | Florida State PhD + Michigan Go Blue! | Cat 6 🐈 | SI @weathertrader | Maps at @ForecastEagle + squall.cloud
Atlanta, GA
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Super Typhoon Champi completed an eyewall replacement cycle and immediately tapped enormously high ocean heat content (fuel)
🔴The eye is huge ... intensity is 155-170 knots or Category 5 (pressure under 900 mb)
East of the Philippines is home of the monster Typhoons.
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Invest 93L (Nor'easter) is transitioning into a tropical storm rather rapidly. It will become Josephine and hurricane winds could easily develop due to pressure gradient with strong ridge to the north & west.
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Super Typhoon Champi now up to 160-knots maximum sustained winds. That's almost 185 mph
Category 5 intensity for tropical cyclones
Nearly EF5 on tornado scale except Champi's eye is 35 miles wide.
Moving at 15-knots -- so vacuuming up boatloads of climate fuel from ocean
6-hours apart, Super Typhoon Champi explosive intensification from a ragged eye and disorganized appearance to a perfect buzzsaw.
What happened? Champi reached an enormous, deep reservoir of heat content --> "climate fuel"
Remarkable case of very rapid intensification!
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Reuters "heat storm" analysis has beautiful graphics and sound data analysis, but everything after that is fatally flawed including the interpretation. It's entirely wrong.
There is no new class of "heat storms" swarming the planet. Indeed, after performing the correct analysis (removing the long-term warming trend), it's found that the shift of the mean of the distribution entirely explains the massive 100x increase reported by Reuters.
A narrow bell curve moves past its own tail especially over the oceans where one standard deviation is small.
This is a well known issue in climate science extreme events literature, and is foundational to attribution science, too.
Explanation and further data analysis at Celsius Earth:
celsius.earth/heat-storms
Supersized heat waves used to be rare. No longer. A Reuters data-driven examination of global temperatures reveals the emergence of what we call heat storms. They now swarm the planet, upending life around the world. reut.rs/4zBUXtM
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Moreover, the swing from La Niña to El Niño explains the observed frequency change in "heat storms" if properly defined with detrended temperature data over the past 80-years.
None of this is "new weather."
ENSO has been measured for more than a century, it is forecast months ahead, and its global warmth is well understood.
Counting an El Niño as a “heat storm” relabels a known ocean–atmosphere oscillation, riding on the warming trend, as a new kind of event. It's not.
celsius.earth/heat-storms
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The same analysis repeated for the oceans and "marine heat waves" yields the same answer: the shift in the mean entirely explains the upward increase in the defined "heat storms"
celsius.earth/heat-storms/br…
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Imagine you're a teenager on social media for the first time seeing Super Typhoons.
Going into high school and college, for the next decade, you'll be learning everything for the first time, and how can't you be amazed, astounded, and excited?
Golden age of meteorology underway!
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ECMWF 🇪🇺🇬🇧has upgraded their world-leading weather model open-source data (that's free to you and me) to 0.1° --> full resolution!
Amazing news for the world, weather map makers --> enormous improvements for machine learning, forecasting, everything. 🎉
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Each pressure level file for Ensembles (EPS) is 14 GB.
That's hilariously large, and quite a challenge to ingest that much data in real-time.
Definitely need to take advantage of byte-range sub-setting to only collect certain parameters.
However, that does not help with only selecting a subset of the globe. That might be great value added product that would streamline operations.
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ECMWF did just now update their open-data server to 2,000 simultaneous connections, which is an enormous data bucket firehose!
I'm a kid in a candy store right now. 🍬
data.ecmwf.int/ecpds/home/op…
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This article is "factually inverted" and opposite of what happened.
The Trump administration refocused the GeoXO satellite program back to weather forecasting undoing Biden admin additions that risked the whole program.
This story is a complete fabrication.
The Trump administration’s cuts to weather satellites will set the country back nearly a decade, experts say. The loss of data used to observe, forecast and research extreme weather could prevent the US from making major advances in weather prediction in the coming years. cnn.it/4k6eD4o
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(4) CNN framed the reduction in cost from $19.6 Billion to $13 billion as endangering weather forecasting.
However, the original baseline cost was already underfunded by Congress, and risked the entire program going forward in terms of potential delays, pressure to build and launch a much more complicated series of satellites.
The first-launch target remained 2032 under both plans.
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(5) The source of the problems with GeoXO entirely predate the current administration.
Everything was set up and approved by Biden administration and NESDIS leadership (Steve Volz) and carried significant risks.
The CNN article then interviewed Steve Volz who has since left NOAA after being put on indefinite administrative leave after an undocumented incident.
The Trump administration is actually trying to improve weather forecasting by getting these satellites in the sky on a feasible timetable with the newest/most advanced instruments possible.
The dishonest framing by House Democrats, CNN, and others about the satellite program restructuring is shameful, and it's clear that they don't care or are lying about improving U.S. weather forecasting but instead have other priorities.
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6-hours apart, Super Typhoon Champi explosive intensification from a ragged eye and disorganized appearance to a perfect buzzsaw.
What happened? Champi reached an enormous, deep reservoir of heat content --> "climate fuel"
Remarkable case of very rapid intensification!
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U.S. weather satellite capabilities are already more than a decade behind the rest of the world (China, Europe) as we won't have a hyperspectral sounder (GXS) until the 2030s.
Europe just launched Meteosat 13 and it went live last week with the newest technology. China's launched in 2021.
Sadly, NOAA has always suffered from extremely poor leadership when it comes to satellites, weather modeling, R2O, and pretty much everything else. That may seem unfair, but you can't ignore the results: delays, cost overruns, and failures. It's just how that agency has evolved in the past few decades based upon the career employees elevated to manage it. It's nearly impossible to overcome those built in roadblocks to progress, and heaven help anyone that tries.
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Super Typhoon Champi has found the extremely warm water east of Philippines and "blown the roof off"🚀
Intensity estimate of 155-170 knots (T 7.5 - T 8.0)
One of the most intense Typhoons or Tropical Cyclones we've observed in past 80-years --> a buzzsaw
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Monday's GIS + weather
NHC produces 7-day forecasts internally & archives data after season.
Can new (Google) AI models reduce error at 7-days enough to shrink cone for public release?
Here's Dorian's 7-day cone + forecast track (hitting Alabama)
tropics.earth/beyond-the-con…
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