I hunt the biggest trade in macro. Right now: oil and Hormuz. Macro investor | Policy Advisor | 46K on Seeking Alpha As Babylon burns, we'll light the cigars.

Dubai
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On February 21st I warned my clients of the coming war. On February 28th, the US attacked Iran. Since then I've said one thing: this conflict lasts longer than anyone wants to believe. On March 5th I said: buy Frontline ($FRO), Petrobras ($PBR) and Suncor ($SU), among others. They are up 61%, 51% and 25% since. The S&P 500 is up 14%. On September 26th I called for re-escalation. We are in the middle of it right now. My thesis today: the market trades the headlines and stays blindly optimistic, while the trouble and risks are higher than ever. My confidence has gone up and down, which I shared openly. It is now very high in this trade. I get calls wrong too. I cut them fast and I say so. I seek maximum transparency, but sometimes I do screw it up. It's not how often you're right or wrong but how much money you make when you're right and how much money you lose when you're wrong. On X, I post every day on the biggest trade I can find, before it becomes consensus. Right now, it's the energy complex. I call it "The Big Long". You should follow me if you want to join me in finding alpha or die tryin'.
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Sam Kovacs retweeted
Energy makes up 3.5% of the S&P 500, yet it's about to pay out 20% of all the cash the index returns to shareholders. And the crowd still won't touch it. My friend Robert Mullin of Marathon Resource Advisors has been all over this for years, and he walked me through where he's finding the best opportunities right now: - Why the back end of the oil curve just started moving, and what it says about inventories heading into peak demand season - The oil service giant hiding a real AI business that could be worth more than the whole company - Why the AI capex boom looks like a dead ringer for the shale boom - The Persian Gulf shortage that could hit the food chain within 3 to 6 months - Where he's buying producers at 2 times cash flow with 10% dividends I'm long Robert Mullin and short Scam Altman. Very timely, watch it here: piped.video/rgKtKXpCnzI
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Sam Kovacs retweeted
Oil 🛢️traders after peace no peace ☮️ headlines …
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Sam Kovacs retweeted
Facing Into the Storm: Investing in Small Cap Oil & gas Stocks Keynote presentation for the LD Micro Main Event Conference
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He also said that two weeks ago, four weeks ago, and six weeks ago, so which two weeks was it?
Bessent says Iran's economy will collapse in 2 weeks panic already starting from their currency collapse
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Look you fucking wall street maggots that have never worked a real day in your lives after suckling on the tits of Daddies trust fund your whole life: They're clearly setting up the narrative for "we had no choice but to attack iran again 🥺" Youre shorting oil right into it.
US SECRETARY OF STATE RUBIO: IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO REACH AN AGREEMENT WITH IRAN, WHICH IS UNDER THE CONTROL OF HARDLINERS
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Sam Kovacs retweeted
Bc nobody wants to own this rally, Spec positioning is insanely light and vol is dirt cheap. Tbh maybe the only oil bulls left are $30k acoount fintwit degens with conspiracy theories lol. Clowns with no skin in the game dunk on bulls all day, but with positioning this pathetic at these prices, where are the bulls even at? #oott #iran
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BIG GROUNDHOG DAY VIBES TODAY.
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Viv, an ordinary mother, happens to not only be a better trader than most, She also happens to be tougher than you dandelions and finds herself offering you guidance in composure and mental fortitude.
Who doesn’t know that the market is manipulated? Trump and his associates have even openly talked about it. So what’s the point of complaining about it every single day? It gets you nowhere. Maybe you should just focus on sharpening your trading skills & strengthening your mental instead. 💭
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Looks like the little crude oil tantrum is already over.
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The hero that Gotham deserves, but not the hero that Gotham needs right now.
WTI now down big...
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Well paint me green and call me a cucumber
Iran Rejects Reports Deal Is 'Close' After Qatar, Pakistan Push 'Compromise Proposal' To End War zerohedge.com/geopolitical/t…
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I have come to the conclusion concerning Finwit that most are either: 1. pussies 2. overleveraged 3. overleveraged pussies I really don't see any other explanations as to why your knickers is in such a twist on every small up and down movement.
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Nasdaq up Oil down And yet the wheels on the bus go round and round.
NASDAQ down Oil up
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WTI and Brent: It is important to understand that nothing about the current price action is cause for concern. Things go up and down. We're well within tolerable margins of this movement.
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the turns have tabled
Iranian security source to Tasnim: "It is not at all clear who in the American leadership is responsible for making significant and final decisions." The source named Vance, Witkoff, Rubio and Kushner, and said the lack of trust in who holds final authority is a main obstacle to negotiations.
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Sam Kovacs retweeted
BREAKING: Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei has refused to meet Pakistan's Army Chief Asim Munir, who is in Tehran now to help reach a US-Iran deal "breakthrough," per Tabnak. Iran says Munir's visit was almost ruled out until Sunday evening, then suddenly finalised by Monday noon as oil prices rose toward the $110 resistance level, per a senior source to Fars. The source said earlier mediator visits to Tehran had helped bring prices down without any progress in negotiations, and that this one is intended to reassure markets rather than signal a breakthrough. Brent crude oil rose above $110, its highest since May 19.
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NASDAQ down Oil up
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😂😂😂 Let's submit a compromise proposal to two sides who have both displayed no will or desire to compromise.
QATAR AND PAKISTAN PRESENTED A "COMPROMISE PROPOSAL" THAT MEETS THE DEMANDS OF BOTH THE AMERICAN AND IRANIAN SIDES. - AL-ARABY AL-JADEED CITES SOURCES FAMILIAR WITH THE MEDIATION EFFORTS
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Sam Kovacs retweeted
The "Pakistani source" just landed in Teheran and will soon start dropping messages in journalists whatsapp group
PAKISTAN ARMY CHIEF ASIM ARRIVES IN TEHRAN WITH DELEGATION - MEHR
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cope
If you look at the BRENT oil chart, you will notice that the price began heading back up in early July, right before the brittle MoU effectively fell apart following a brief continuation in flows. To maintain flows, US CENTCOM stepped up efforts to shepherd tankers out of the SoH, and once that happened, everyone wanted to move more oil. It created a rat race for both oil and tankers.
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