Stock analyst & creator. Interviews + deep dives on stocks, fundamentals & AI. Origins of Alpha + Quarterly Conviction on YouTube 👇 SamBadawi.com
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DAN IVES: WE’RE ONLY 15% THROUGH THE AI BUILDOUT
Full video on YouTube in the first reply ↓
I sat down with Dan Ives at Zeta Live to discuss $NVDA, $MSFT, $AAPL, $CRWD, $SNOW, $GOOGL, $MRVL, $AVGO and where he sees the AI trade heading into 2027.
@DivesTech believes we’re still less than 15% through the AI buildout, with $3-4T of spending ahead and the next wave of opportunities expanding from chips and hyperscalers into software and cybersecurity.
We also covered his top picks, the memory supercycle, US vs. China and why he thinks Wall Street keeps getting distracted by bearish narratives.
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Apple $AAPL JUST guided fiscal Q1 revenue growth of 7-10%, ahead of the 6.1% analysts expected, with Services growth of 8-9%.
The CFO said the 45-46% gross margin outlook factors in memory chip expenses and Siri AI costs.
Apple - FY2026 Q4 Earnings
$AAPL $334.90 [-0.83% AH]
✅ Revenue: $114.5B (Est: $113.4B) [+12% YoY]
✅ EPS: $2.10 (Est: $1.99), includes tariff refund
Additional Metrics:
Gross Margin: 47.9% (Est: 47.5%)
Operating Income: $35.6B (Est: $34.5B) [+10% YoY]
Operating Margin: 31.1%
Net Income: $30.7B [+12% YoY]
Segment Revenue:
iPhone: $57.6B
Services: $31.6B
Mac: $10.8B
iPad: $6.2B
Wearables: $8.3B
Products: $82.9B
Geographic Revenue:
Americas: $48.7B
Europe: $32.0B
Greater China: $17.5B
Japan: $6.5B
Rest of Asia Pacific: $9.7B
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Palantir's $PLTR commercial revenue just grew 113% YoY to $1.17B, passing government at $1.15B. ServiceNow $NOW grew subscription revenue 21% last quarter while Salesforce $CRM managed 11%.
Palantir is on a different curve from the AI software compares it gets compared with. Three years later, it's still accelerating at $2.3B in quarterly revenue.
Palantir - FY2026 Q3 Earnings
$PLTR $178.20 [+0.20% AH]
✅ Revenue: $2.31B (Est: $2.18B) [+96% YoY]
✅ EPS: $0.44 (Est: $0.41), adjusted
Additional Metrics:
Adjusted Operating Income: $1.43B (Est: $1.30B) [+138% YoY]
Adjusted Operating Margin: 61.7%
Net Income: $1.13B
Operating Cash Flow: $1.21B
Adjusted Free Cash Flow: $1.22B
Segment Revenue:
U.S. Commercial: $0.98B
U.S. Government: $0.95B
Geographic Revenue:
U.S.: $1.94B
International: $0.38B
Q4 2026 Guidance:
✅ Revenue: $2.649-2.653B (Est: $2.46B)
✅ Adjusted Operating Income: $1.640-1.644B (Est: $1.45B)
FY2026 Guidance:
✅ Revenue: $8.530-8.534B (Est: $8.21B), raised from $8.150-8.158B
✅ Adjusted Operating Income: $5.245-5.249B (Est: $4.92B)
Adjusted Free Cash Flow: $4.8-5.0B
U.S. Commercial Revenue: more than $3.559B
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Palantir - FY2026 Q3 Earnings
$PLTR $178.20 [+0.20% AH]
✅ Revenue: $2.31B (Est: $2.18B) [+96% YoY]
✅ EPS: $0.44 (Est: $0.41), adjusted
Additional Metrics:
Adjusted Operating Income: $1.43B (Est: $1.30B) [+138% YoY]
Adjusted Operating Margin: 61.7%
Net Income: $1.13B
Operating Cash Flow: $1.21B
Adjusted Free Cash Flow: $1.22B
Segment Revenue:
U.S. Commercial: $0.98B
U.S. Government: $0.95B
Geographic Revenue:
U.S.: $1.94B
International: $0.38B
Q4 2026 Guidance:
✅ Revenue: $2.649-2.653B (Est: $2.46B)
✅ Adjusted Operating Income: $1.640-1.644B (Est: $1.45B)
FY2026 Guidance:
✅ Revenue: $8.530-8.534B (Est: $8.21B), raised from $8.150-8.158B
✅ Adjusted Operating Income: $5.245-5.249B (Est: $4.92B)
Adjusted Free Cash Flow: $4.8-5.0B
U.S. Commercial Revenue: more than $3.559B
Palantir $PLTR reported revenue growth of 96% year over year and guided to 88% growth next quarter.
The stock was down as much as 🔴 4% after the print and closed below its daily 50MA.
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onsemi - FY2026 Q3 Earnings
$ON $68.25 [-2.50% AH]
✅ Revenue: $1.72B (Est: $1.70B) [+11% YoY]
✅ EPS: $0.90 (Est: $0.87), GAAP EPS $0.79
Additional Metrics:
Gross Margin: 41.2%
Operating Income: $0.40B [+34% YoY]
Operating Margin: 23.2%
Net Income: $0.35B [+38% YoY]
Operating Cash Flow: $0.52B [+23% YoY]
Free Cash Flow: $0.49B [+31% YoY]
CapEx: $0.03B
Cash: $4.16B
Segment Revenue:
PSG: $0.89B
AMG: $0.60B
ISG: $0.24B
Q4 2026 Guidance:
✅ Revenue: $1.715-1.815B (Est: $1.74B)
✅ EPS: $0.95-1.07 (Est: $0.96)
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Apple - FY2026 Q4 Earnings
$AAPL $334.90 [-0.83% AH]
✅ Revenue: $114.5B (Est: $113.4B) [+12% YoY]
✅ EPS: $2.10 (Est: $1.99), includes tariff refund
Additional Metrics:
Gross Margin: 47.9% (Est: 47.5%)
Operating Income: $35.6B (Est: $34.5B) [+10% YoY]
Operating Margin: 31.1%
Net Income: $30.7B [+12% YoY]
Segment Revenue:
iPhone: $57.6B
Services: $31.6B
Mac: $10.8B
iPad: $6.2B
Wearables: $8.3B
Products: $82.9B
Geographic Revenue:
Americas: $48.7B
Europe: $32.0B
Greater China: $17.5B
Japan: $6.5B
Rest of Asia Pacific: $9.7B
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Oracle $ORCL is reportedly seeing demand above the $10B size of its common stock offering, which has not priced yet.
Together with the $10B bond sale, that is the full $20B Oracle said last week it would limit new capital raises to through fiscal 2030.
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Piper Sandler believes a merger between Tesla $TSLA and SpaceX $SPCX is more likely than not, following Elon Musk's confirmation that both companies formed committees to explore a potential deal.
The firm estimates Tesla's initial stock reaction would likely fall within 15%, depending on the merger valuation and share exchange terms, while Musk could retain over 70% voting control.
President Trump says he'll protect Elon Musk if Democrats target him or his companies, while predication market traders are pricing in a 75% chance of Tesla $TSLA and SpaceX $SPCX merging before 2028.
Musk recently confirmed on SpaceX's earnings call that independent board committees are exploring a merger, although he cautioned that a deal is far from certain.
Meanwhile, Musk is reportedly reconsidering Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM as a partner in the TeraFab chip project, adding another layer to the growing collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX.
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Meta $META is reportedly considering raising at least $20B through U.S. dollar and euro-denominated bonds, adding to its recent $37.5B stock and convertible preferred offerings.
With Meta already guiding for $135-145B in 2026 CapEx, I think the market is becoming increasingly concerned about how much debt and dilution these companies need to fund their AI expansion.
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President Trump says he'll protect Elon Musk if Democrats target him or his companies, while predication market traders are pricing in a 75% chance of Tesla $TSLA and SpaceX $SPCX merging before 2028.
Musk recently confirmed on SpaceX's earnings call that independent board committees are exploring a merger, although he cautioned that a deal is far from certain.
Meanwhile, Musk is reportedly reconsidering Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM as a partner in the TeraFab chip project, adding another layer to the growing collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX.
BREAKING: President Trump promises to protect Elon Musk if Democrats threaten Tesla or SpaceX
75% chance $TSLA and $SPCX merge before 2028
Paid partnership (ad)
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Amazon $AMZN is up 5% today, with Anthropic's latest IPO filing revealing a $110B minimum AWS spending commitment through 2036, adding to the excitement around Amazon's accelerating cloud business.
I've held Amazon since 2023 through all the volatility, and it's still my largest position, up over 100% from my original entry.
With AWS growing 39% YoY and management expecting growth above 40% in 2027 and 2028, I continue to believe the market is underestimating Amazon's long-term AI opportunity.
Amazon $AMZN and Microsoft $MSFT have secured substantial long-term commitments from Anthropic $ANT, according to its latest SEC filing.
Amazon: At least $110B through April 2036
Microsoft: At least $44.9B through June 2033
These are minimum spending commitments regardless of actual usage, and I think this helps explain why hyperscalers are willing to keep investing so aggressively in AI infrastructure despite the pressure on near-term free cash flow.
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Amazon $AMZN and Microsoft $MSFT have secured substantial long-term commitments from Anthropic $ANT, according to its latest SEC filing.
Amazon: At least $110B through April 2036
Microsoft: At least $44.9B through June 2033
These are minimum spending commitments regardless of actual usage, and I think this helps explain why hyperscalers are willing to keep investing so aggressively in AI infrastructure despite the pressure on near-term free cash flow.
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AMD $AMD could secure more than $20B in spending from Anthropic $ANT under its initial AI computing arrangement, according to Anthropic's updated IPO filing.
The agreement involves AMD's Helios rack-scale systems and MI450-series GPUs, with initial capacity planned for 2027 and the possibility of additional orders.
I think this is worth watching because AMD is increasingly getting opportunities to compete for large AI infrastructure deployments that have traditionally favored NVIDIA $NVDA.
However, the outstanding giant in this is, and will always be, Jensen Huang / NVIDIA.
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Anthropic $ANT disclosed agreements worth up to $120.5B with SpaceX $SPCX and xAI to access NVIDIA $NVDA GPU computing capacity through 2029.
The agreements could generate approximately $3.1B in monthly fees once all capacity is delivered, which Anthropic expects by December 2026.
What's interesting is how SpaceX is becoming a major AI infrastructure supplier while also developing its own competing models through xAI.
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Google $GOOGL has secured a minimum $121.3B cloud hosting commitment from Anthropic $ANT extending through July 2033, according to Anthropic's updated IPO filing.
Anthropic also estimates another $125-150B in payments for additional TPU computing capacity expected between 2028 and 2031, depending on how that capacity is delivered and financed.
I think this is important for Google's cloud business because it gives us a much better idea of how much future demand is already being lined up for its custom AI chips.
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ANTHROPIC $ANT - 2026 OPERATING EXPENSES
Here is the updated breakdown of Anthropic's operating expenses for the first nine months of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025.
Operating Expenses (9M 2026):
Compute & Infrastructure: $18.81B (+329% YoY)
Personnel: $4.86B (+374% YoY)
Sales, Marketing & Partnerships: $5.53B (+1,617% YoY)
Bartz Legal Settlement: $0 (vs. $1.5B in 2025)
Compute Costs as % of Revenue:
2025: 172%
2026: 57%
Anthropic also disclosed $6.5B in short-term compute commitments, which currently cost significantly more than its long-term infrastructure agreements.
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ANTHROPIC $ANT - IPO FINANCIAL RESULTS
Here are the results from Anthropic's S-1 filing dated October 26, 2026.
Q1 2026
Revenue: $4.73B
Operating Loss: -$1.67B
Operating Margin: -35.3%
Net Loss: -$14.45B
Q2 2026
Revenue: $11.56B
Operating Income: +$974M
Operating Margin: +8.4%
Net Loss: -$66.30B
QoQ revenue growth: +144%
Anthropic turned operating profitable in Q2 despite reporting a massive net loss, largely driven by noncash financing-related accounting adjustments.
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Anthropic $ANT reportedly posted a $23.3B net loss in Q3 2026, compared to $12.1B a year ago, while its operating loss came in at $567M for the quarter ended September 30.
The large gap between net and operating losses is notable, particularly after Anthropic reported substantial noncash financing-related valuation charges earlier this year.
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Penguin Solutions $PENG just introduced new SMART Modular DDR5 memory modules running at 12,800 MT/s, designed to improve bandwidth and performance for AI data centers.
The technology targets AI inference, large language models, and high-performance computing, where faster memory access is becoming increasingly important as workloads grow more demanding.
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