There's never been an immortal society. Figuring out why. Founder @bismarckanlys.
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Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang created the chips that enabled today's AI technology. He is neither an AI doomer, singularitarian, or China hawk.
This live player's next goal is a transformation of the economy with robotics.
Read the new @bismarckanlys Brief (link below):
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Samo Burja retweeted
Perhaps our most important Brief yet for understanding the AI landscape.
Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang created the chips that enabled today's AI technology. He is neither an AI doomer, singularitarian, or China hawk.
This live player's next goal is a transformation of the economy with robotics.
Read the new @bismarckanlys Brief (link below):
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Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang created the chips that enabled today's AI technology. He is neither an AI doomer, singularitarian, or China hawk.
This live player's next goal is a transformation of the economy with robotics.
Read the new @bismarckanlys Brief (link below):
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Read the whole Brief here:
brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p…
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To read the full analysis of Jensen Huang, subscribe to Bismarck Brief here: brief.bismarckanalysis.com/s…
We invite you to subscribe and join us on this ongoing exploration into the global power landscape.
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The AI revolution is also a fossil fuel revolution. Demand for oil and gas will only increase.
Companies like Oxy are pursuing new carbon dioxide-based methods to increase the oil recoverable from U.S. shale wells.
They could potentially grow the oil supply by 50%+ and extend U.S. energy independence from the Middle East.
Read the new @bismarckanlys Brief (link below):
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As we scale AIs swarms, we will be greatly surprised to learn which social phenomena are specific human behaviors, and which are not.
At least as much social science insight to be gained here as we gained from researching animal sociality.
Measuring the Swarm Economy
Existing AI benchmarks fail to measure the growing capabilities of multi-agent systems. New metrics are needed as these systems begin to reshape society.
Read the new article by Gavin Morrison (link below):
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Samo Burja retweeted
Paraphrasing again here, but still thinking about @SamoBurja point that we have written fragments from only 13% of the ~2,000 ancient Greek authors we know by name. And that's just what was written down, not counting the immense amounts of tacit knowledge lost forever.
Makes you wonder how many breakthroughs civilizations have discovered, lost, then rediscovered throughout history.
How much further along would humans be if none if it had to be reinvented? Or maybe the reinventing is the whole point? A new civilization being handed all the answers wouldn't be the same as one that figures it out on its own
Paraphrasing slightly, but this gave me chills
“If an artifact from the Bronze Age were found it would have ended up in a Roman villa and then get melted down in the 4th century. How much of what we have in the Louvre or the British museum will suffer the same fate?” @SamoBurja
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Samo Burja retweeted
amazing talk as always by @SamoBurja yesterday evening 🤍 @palladiummag
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Samo Burja retweeted
The real monopoly on violence in France—and other Western countries—is not held solely by the official police and army but also by the unofficial protester-rioters mass-mobilized and protected by elements of the state and elite, perhaps similar to Venezuela's political militias.
A lot of people are responding to this by saying that the French government should just use force to put down the riots, but I don't think it's realistic and I want to explain why.
Before you get angry at me and accuse me of being a pussy, you should know that I personally think a building such as Limoges's town hall is worth more than most human beings and certainly more than the brainless thugs who burnt it down, but it doesn't matter what I think.
We have let things rot for so long that, at this point, relying primarily on force to restore order would require a degree of violence far greater than what people realize and what is politically feasible.
It's possible to contain a riot using only moderate force when the number of police officers is high relative to the number of rioters, but when riots are so widespread and involve so many people because you have allowed this kind of things to happen for so long, that's just not possible and you have to use extreme violence to make up for the lack of manpower.
I know people on the Internet will say that it doesn't matter and that we should just do it, but the reality is that most of the people in charge are not prepared to use that kind of force and neither would most ordinary people if they saw videos of 16-year-old kids having their brains blown out by cops.
I doubt even Le Pen would do that and, if she tried, she would quickly backtrack because of the backlash it would inevitably generate.
When you start shooting rioters after years or even decades of letting them run amok with impunity, it will initially result in even more violence, because repression is no longer credible and they will assume that you will cave in the face of the outrage.
So it's not enough to shoot people once, you have to keep doing it until your credibility is restored and nobody will even want to test your resolve anymore, which in turn means that you have to kill a lot of people.
And you have to be confident that, as you do that, your subordinates and political allies won't get cold feet and desert you because they anticipate that you'll lose and will not want to be on the losing side, giving rise to a self-fulfilling prophecy.
I'm sorry but that's just not going to happen. The Soviet hardliners didn't have the stomach for this kind of carnage in 1991, which is why the August coup failed almost immediately, so frankly the idea that French elites in 2027 will is just delusional. As I say below, there are things we can and should do, but we have our work cut out for us and it will take a long time.
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Paraphrasing slightly, but this gave me chills
“If an artifact from the Bronze Age were found it would have ended up in a Roman villa and then get melted down in the 4th century. How much of what we have in the Louvre or the British museum will suffer the same fate?” @SamoBurja
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Samo Burja retweeted
Come hear PALLADIUM Editor-in-Chief Samo Burja speak this Sunday!
Tickets are limited — make sure you buy yours soon.
Attention San Francisco: I will be giving a talk explaining why civilizations collapse and why our own high technology civilization might be uniquely vulnerable, this Sunday evening for @palladiummag.
Tickets are limited. Get yours here:
luma.com/palladium-civilizat…
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One day left! Get your tickets!
Attention San Francisco: I will be giving a talk explaining why civilizations collapse and why our own high technology civilization might be uniquely vulnerable, this Sunday evening for @palladiummag.
Tickets are limited. Get yours here:
luma.com/palladium-civilizat…
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Samo Burja reveals why Jensen Huang is one of the only live players in AI who can work with both Sam Altman and Elon Musk:
"The most obvious and the most important is Jensen. He is one of the only individuals in the world that can both coordinate and deal with some of the other live players."
"I'm sure Sam Altman and Elon Musk can work together very well for a little bit, but that breaks down at some point. However, both of them do work quite well with Jensen."
"A deep friendship with Morris, the founder of TSMC. He even asked Jensen to go replace him at TSMC. Let’s call that the trillion-dollar handshake. Whatever else you think of Jensen, his superpower is the ability to do the trillion-dollar handshake."
"Imagine back in 2016 you had to AGI pill a board of 40 boomers. Impossible. He could only do that with his own company because he was kind of a dictator. But he wasn’t just a bully, he was correct."
@SamoBurja @bismarckanlys
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FAI @efarrellgregory explains why China went all in on open-weight AI models:
"They’ve been extremely compute constrained since 2022, which means they can’t do scaling to the same degree that the US can. I think they’re at like 5% of global AI compute, whereas five American hyperscalers have 60%."
"I think they’re at like 5% of global AI compute, whereas five American hyperscalers have 60%. There’s a huge differential there."
"Once you already have open weight models, you have a culture and practice building up where an open weight model is made available, and it’s subsequently used by an even smaller team to be specially fitted for this company, that company, that usage. That builds up over time."
@JoinFAI
Rationalism and Divergent Sinomodernity
Why do Americans who forecast artificial intelligence capabilities misread China?
Read the new article from @efarrellgregory (link below):
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