We intuitively view common sense and social science as more separate than they really are. In fact, they are deeply intertwined. Common sense challenges, complements, and learns from social science. update.news/p/social-science…
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Children aren't as creative as is often said "Adults outperformed children on externally rated creativity [but] children reported higher confidence and motivation, lower anxiety, and greater enjoyment." journals.plos.org/plosone/ar…
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I think that when one claims that children are insightful in this way, one often conflates "smart-for-a-child" and "smart-period". Of course I've not heard those questions but ime 15 year olds seldom ask questions I'd be impressed by if they were given by an adult.
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Stefan Schubert retweeted
My plea to all AI lab staff: reassess if your current project is your best opportunity to delay RSI, or stop it blowing up in our face. If it's not, move immediately. There's no time to waste even a week to inertia or politeness. The strategic situation is shifting under our feet, so if you haven't reassessed your options recently, you could easily be wasting your time or possibly making things worse. You have access to info I don't, but here's 8 ways priorities seem to have shifted to me, which I elaborate on in the video: 1. Helping with capabilities advances looks worse than in the past, especially bringing forward RSI 2. Safety & alignment evals need a credibility revolution to stop misleading the public 3. 'Pacing the frontier' is unambiguously necessary, and working to make it happen is a huge new opportunity for talent 4. Chain-of-thought monitoring probably stops working without a big technical and regulatory push to keep it 5. It's worse than ever to patch surface indications of deep structural problems you know aren't getting fixed 6. There's ever less need for altruists to help with primarily commercial work 7. Staff have an ever-shrinking window to organise as a group and collectively shape events 8. There are new opportunities for research impact outside frontier companies that are worth considering I know you're probably some combination of exhausted, overwhelmed, and anxious already. But unfortunately there's no way to escape the need to regularly check in on the high level strategic picture and see where you can slot in to maximum effect. I wish I could do it for you but nobody far from your situation can. Godspeed my friends. (From the 80,000 Hours Podcast, links below.)
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Stefan Schubert retweeted
1/ We're seeing renewed pay growth compression among over-16 wage and salary workers... fastest wage growth at the 10th and 25th percentile, slowest wage at the 75th and 90th
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Most thinking about utopia seems confused to me. We have gradually improved the world, especially the last centuries. Induction suggests our prior should be a substantial chance this will - through a long series of sensible improvements - eventually lead to a utopian state. ->
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A common objection is that utopianism is dangerous and will actually lead to a dystopian world. But we don’t need a utopian blueprint, just to continue on the current path: gradually solving problems, preventing disasters, and revising our goals as we go along.
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Jon Stewart is a thought-terminating populist
Former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon (@hilbertspaess) and Jon Stewart discuss AI, jobs disappearing, universal income, and whether tech CEOs are creating a dystopian future
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Negative surprises are larger than positive ones
An interesting IMF chart illustrating the substantial forecast errors in global GDP growth.
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State visit
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Good analysis of Hollywood’s portrayals of ordinary social interactions by Argon. I find it cheap and tiresome - perhaps especially because unlike other cheap Hollywood tropes it’s not generally seen as such.
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Shape rotator slapstick
Every time someone on this app (including me) makes some prediction about AI and the future I think about this chart.
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Moralisation of sex is less of a historical accident than is sometimes suggested
I always thought that the ancient Romans were tolerant about sexuality, until the rise of puritanical Christianity. Reading Kyle Harper, I learnt that this picture is not exactly false, but it is extraordinarily misleading: worksinprogress.co/issue/wer… - Sexual penetration of a free Roman man was severely punished, possibly by death. Consenting to penetration was also seriously punished. Lesbianism was not criminalised, but was regarded with contempt. - The one great subject of permissiveness was the penetration of enslaved people. Although relatively few people owned slaves, many prostitutes were enslaved and prostitution was ubiquitous, so coerced sex was widespread. - In some parts of the empire, many married women probably seem to have worn face veils in public. - There was not even theoretically a norm of male fidelity: although wives were required to be faithful to their husbands, the inverse was not even aspirationally true. - Early Christianity wrought a kind of revolution on ancient morality. All forms of sexuality apart from procreative sex within monogamous marriage were relentlessly and violently condemned, and even marital sex was allowed only rather grudgingly. In effect, the Christians extended to men the restrictions that had previously applied only to women. - To a limited extent, they also extended the protections previously enjoyed by free men to other groups of people. Although the early Christian record on slavery is mostly very poor, they did introduce the first laws against the forcible prostitution of slaves. Transgressors were to be arrested and sent to the public mines, ‘which is’, the law ran, ‘less of a punishment than that of a woman who is seized by a pimp and compelled to endure the filth of an intercourse that she did not will’. It is not clear how much behaviour actually changed in practice – the Christians were never able to get people to behave exactly as they wanted. But the change in official norms was revolutionary, and not quite the revolution I expected.
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Tall poppy syndrome
Love this. Pleased that I’m merely ‘insufferable’ 🤣
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Stefan Schubert retweeted
I'm taking on mentees for the @pivotal_org Fellowship, together with Caspar Kaiser. We're looking for people to work on inter-AI morality: how do AI systems view and treat each other? 15 weeks in London, £15k to £18k stipend. Apply by 1 Nov: pivotal-research.org/mentors…
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Stefan Schubert retweeted
Elizabeth Holmes is an outlier but she’s part of a whole spectrum through which our society has become way too indulgent — in business, politics, policy, media, and beyond — of people who lie to or mislead others. slowboring.com/p/our-culture…
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Stefan Schubert retweeted
My wife Diana Fleischman (@sentientist ) will be speaking about 'The Training Instinct: Behaviorism and Countercontrol' at the Avalon Exposition, Berkeley, CA, Oct 30 - Nov 1. Along with dozens of other fascinating speakers covering diverse topics in science, philosophy, religion, history, social institutions, & the arts. Tickets still available. avalon.institute/exposition/
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What’s the worst version of you?
44% Driver
28% Cyclist
14% Pedestrian
13% All of the above
173 votes • Final results
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I think media norms about explanations can favour a lenient perspective on the French riots. Journalists reasonably ask “why does this happen?” and the explanations that seem illuminating and serious to them often refer, e.g. to school budgets. But the effect is often excusing.
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